Issue No. 603
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12 - 18 September 2002 Issue No. 603 Heritage |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Dead or alive?
What has become of the Al-Qa'eda leader over the last year? Khaled Dawoud sifts the often contradictory evidence
Where is Osama bin Laden? US President George W Bush recently tried to narrow it down. "He may be alive," said Bush. "If he is, we'll get him. If he's not alive, we got him ... but the issue is bigger than one person."
US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also had a go last month, when he declared: "He's either alive and in Afghanistan, or somewhere else, or he's dead."
Meanwhile, Pakistan and the US-backed regime in Afghanistan, both eager to claim that terrorism no longer exists in their countries, have continued to trade accusations as to Bin Laden's whereabouts, and those of his closest associates, in particular the leader of Egypt's Jihad group, Ayman El- Zawahri.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was among the first to back an assumption circulated in recent months that Bin Laden must have been killed in the merciless US bombing of the Tora Bora mountains in eastern Afghanistan in late December. However, the Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah disagrees: he has claimed that the Saudi militant leader sneaked through the rugged Tora Bora mountains on horseback to Pakistan, and is there enjoying the protection of tribal leaders, far beyond the reach of the central government in Islamabad.
There have been a few moments of apparent certainty, but they have not lasted long. In July, Dale Watson, the FBI's counter-terrorism chief, was the first senior US government official to say publicly that he believed Bin Laden was dead. Yet Watson admitted that he did not have any hard evidence to support his opinion. Last week, The New York Times quoted senior Special Operations officers as demanding an end to their effort in Afghanistan, having concluded for themselves that Bin Laden must have been killed.
However, other military officials quoted in the same report ruled out their withdrawal, and said that as long as Bin Laden's body was not found, military operations must continue. They added that the present US military strategy was to maintain pressure on the remnants of Al-Qa'eda, in the hope that this would keep Bin Laden and his close associates on the run. That way, if they are alive, they will be that much easier to catch.
According to US intelligence sources, the last credible information on the fate of the Al-Qa'eda leader was received in late December. At that time, Pentagon officials said they intercepted a message he addressed to his followers over the radio, calling upon them to remain steadfast while confronting the unprecedentedly heavy pounding of the Tora Bora mountains.
Since then, President Bush and other top US military officials have stopped reiterating their statement that Bin Laden and Zawahri were wanted "dead or alive". The line changed instead to assertions by the same officials that the "war against terror" was not simply a war against one man and his closest aides. The war was now against "terror worldwide". Rumsfeld went as far as to suggest that US Special Operations Forces should be allowed to carry out missions against suspected terrorists anywhere in the world, regardless of the approval of foreign governments.
As the anniversary of the attack draws near, expectation continues to mount among Al-Qa'eda sympathisers that their hero will reemerge to declare the US war on terrorism a failure. On the Jihad Online Internet site, which is now seen as closely linked to Al-Qa'eda, a message was posted early this week declaring that Bin Laden's followers "were looking forward to the fulfillment of a promise made by some of the Sheikh's (Bin Laden) close brothers that he would address us on the first anniversary of the 11 September attacks."
Bin Laden partly met the wishes of his followers just two days before that first anniversary. On Tuesday this week, the Qatari satellite television channel, Al-Jazeera, aired a videotape in which the voice of Bin Laden was heard claiming responsibility, openly and directly for the first time, for the 11 September attacks. He also praised those who carried them out as "martyrs".
The tape, which Al-Jazeera said was recorded by Al-Qa'eda and handed to it to mark the occasion, also showed footage of the militants which it said were among those who crashed their hijacked planes into the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon. They were seen poring over flying manuals and aerial maps of the Pentagon in preparation for the attack. The television channel, which has been favoured by Al-Qa'eda since the 11 September attacks as the channel through which to release its statements, said the latest tape had been filmed in the Afghan city of Kandahar a few months before the young men headed to the United States to carry out their missions.
Meanwhile, over still photos of the hijackers, Bin Laden's voice was heard naming some of the attackers in the 11 September strikes.
"Mohamed Atta, leader of the group, originally from the land of Kenana (paradise), Egypt, destroyed the first (World Trade Center) tower... He carried in him all concern for the nation. God welcomes him to paradise a martyr.
"Ziad Al-Jarrah, a pure soul coming from Lebanon and the Levant, descendent of Abu Ubaida Al-Jarrah, [one of the military lieutenants of the Prophet Mohamed].
"Marwan Al-Shehi, of the Emirates, destroyer of the second tower. He left this world to be returned to God.
"Hani Hanjour, originally from Taef (western Saudi Arabia), symbol of sacrifice, destroyer of the American defence centre, the Pentagon."
Al-Jazeera also showed photographs of Hamza Al-Ghamdi, Said Al-Ghamdi, Wael Al-Shehri and Ahmad Naami, whose names, like those cited by Bin Laden, figure on the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) list of the suicide hijackers.
The latest Al-Qa'eda tape is clearly the first detailed admission of responsibility by the organisation, but experts on the group again pointed out that it did not answer the key questions of Bin Laden's whereabouts, and whether he was now dead or alive.
Hani El-Sebaie, director of the London-based Al-Maqrizi Centre for Historic Studies, told Al-Ahram Weekly in a telephone interview that, according to credible sources in Afghanistan, "Sheikh Osama and Zawahri remain alive and are preparing themselves for a long war." He added, "they remain in hiding in Afghanistan, and they did not go to Pakistan."
El-Sebaie was among scores of Egyptian militants who took part in the war against the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan. In 1999, a Supreme Military Court sentenced him to life imprisonment in absentia for allegedly masterminding anti-government attacks.
"I have been to Afghanistan and I know the people there," Sebaie told the Weekly. "Bin Laden would not trust the protection of so-called tribal leaders along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. He knows that they could easily be pressured by the Pakistani government. It is simply enough for the Pakistani army to surround any of these tribal areas for several days, cutting off water and electricity, and then they would surrender and do whatever the army wants them to do."
Yet Sebaie does not think that Bin Laden is likely to make an appearance any time soon. "He knows that the media are pressing him to make an appearance on the first anniversary, but I don't think he would do that, because it might allow the Americans to trace him," he said.
Other commentators, however, believe that the Al-Qa'eda leader is not in any condition to make another media appearance, even if he wanted to. Essam Deraz, an Egyptian journalist who fought alongside Bin Laden in Afghanistan in the early 1980s but later returned to Cairo, thinks that Bin Laden was killed in Tora Bora. "I know Bin Laden. He would not leave his fighters and flee. The huge 'daisy cutter' bombs which the Americans used were enough to kill everybody around that area." He added that the Americans "do not want to confirm that he is dead, because that would give them no reason to stay in Afghanistan or to continue expanding their so-called war on terror".
A report posted on Jihad Online, quoting sources close to Al-Qa'eda, backed Sebaie's view. It ridiculed those who "apply conventional military theories to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Al-Qa'eda. Thus, they reach the silly conclusion that America as a military, economic and political power must definitely be able to defeat a few dozen fighters hiding in Afghanistan's mountains."
According to the report, Al-Qa'eda was applying a different method, which it dubbed "unparalleled war". This was defined as "using means and tactics against the adversary, which he can't personally use, identify or avoid. Such a method poses a great danger to America and could lead to its decay from within".
The cornerstone of this tactic, according to the report, "is to be able to absorb the US reaction to our acts and later direct more than one strike against America. Therefore, delaying the reaction could be intentional until the Americans are fully convinced they have achieved victory and finished their mission. Then, the effect of the (Al-Qa'eda) strike would be stronger on both the political and the psychological levels."
The report added that Al-Qa'eda "has been known for planning the next move before carrying out any attack and absorbing its reaction. Thus, it has never been forced to respond to any US strike unless it was prepared and ready." The report said that part of Al-Qa'eda's tactics was to benefit from ongoing international developments. "In this respect, it is reported that the organisation managed to get hold of advanced weapons and equipment after the fall of the Soviet Union."
It also suggested that Al-Qa'eda could have been responsible for a series of attacks in India that have been blamed on Kashmiri separatists, "so that the Pakistani army would head to the Indian border, leaving the Americans alone to confront Al- Qa'eda."
US officials deny that failing to arrest Bin Laden means that the US war on terror has failed. They insist that the more important goal was to crackdown on his organisation worldwide so as to deter any possible further attacks. They also point out that Afghanistan is no longer a safe-haven for Al-Qa'eda and that most of its followers are on the run and under intense pressure, as nearly 90 governments are now cooperating with the United States.
Despite all this, there remains little evidence that the United States has succeeded in achieving its declared goal of "smoking out" terrorists and totally destroying this apparently well- organised and extremely secretive group.
A United Nations report issued last week makes alarming reading in this respect. It boldly states that one year after 11 September, "Al-Qa'eda is by all accounts 'fit and well' and poised to strike again at its leisure." And the report adds, "the prime targets of the organisation are likely to be persons and property of the United States of America and its allies in the fight against Al-Qa'eda, as well as Israel."
The report was drafted by a UN committee responsible for monitoring the enforcement of Security Council resolutions which have imposed an arms, travel and financial embargo against Al-Qa'eda and groups allegedly associated with it. It noted that Al-Qa'eda has established cells in at least 40 countries, developed operational links with other militant Islamic groups, gained new recruits, and found new ways to channel millions of dollars and a variety of weapons to its supporters.
US officials were quick to deny the conclusions reached by the report, and said some of its information was outdated. But even if that is the case, certain claims about the structure of the group and its worldwide network cannot but be extremely worrying.
The report on Al-Qa'eda posted on Jihad Online, also denied allegations that the US war on the group had been successful. It said that most of the detainees held in Guantanamo, Cuba, were Arab relief workers who had found themselves caught up in the war in Afghanistan. "Sheikh Bin Laden, Ayman El- Zawahri, Mullah Omar are all alive. And the larger and more important part of Al-Qa'eda organisation remains intact. The Americans know that, but do not want to announce it, so that their campaign should not be declared a failure."
Even US officials would admit there have been few arrests of key Al-Qa'eda leaders. The only major arrest to been publicised so far was that of a Palestinian militant named Abu Zubaida in March in Pakistan.
Sebaie of Al-Maqrizi Centre in London, like the Jihad Online report, insist that all the other so-called terrorist attacks planned by Al-Qa'eda and allegedly foiled by US officials over the past year in countries like Morocco, Turkey, Germany, Britain and the United States, were faked. As Sebaie puts it, "They were just an attempt to cover up America's failure to arrest Bin Laden and Zawahri."
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