Al-Ahram Weekly | Economy | The trouble with tourism

		26 Sept. - 2 October 2002 Issue No. 605 Economy	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

The trouble with tourism
The tragic events of 11 September have shaken the global tourist industry, but, this is not the only factor behind the recent slowdown in the Middle East. Rehab Saad reports

When the exhibitors at Cairo's Mediterranean Travel Fair (MTF) decided to take part in the event's third round they were painfully aware that their job wasn't going to be easy. The MTF, Egypt's annual travel fair, fell exactly a year after the 11 September 2001 attacks on New York and Washington; events which shattered the global tourism industry. While international tourism continued to grow in 2000, reaching unprecedented levels, international travel in 2001 declined by 0.6 per cent, the first year of negative growth since 1982.
However, according to a report published by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO), the events of 11 September, were only one factor, although the most important, for the decline in tourism. "The economic situation in Western countries, for example Germany and the US, began to deteriorate in late 2000, while the decline began even earlier in Asia. The effects of the economic downturn on tourism in the Americas, South Asia and the Middle East were already beginning to be felt during the first eight months of 2001," the report stated.
During a regional seminar held recently in Cairo, the secretary-general of the WTO, Francesco Frangialli, told Al-Ahram Weekly, that political tension in many parts of the world is a major cause of the slowdown in tourism. He cited the Arab-Israeli conflict, expected action against Iraq, escalation in hostilities between India and Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan. "This does not mean that people stopped travelling to these destinations altogether, rather they restructured their travel habits favouring destinations closer to home and using means of transportation that they perceived to be safer. In fact, people, have only postponed travel plans to risky destinations. However, we are confident that, in the future, the situation will return to normal," he said.
Exhibitors at the MTF, representing 31 countries and 40 travel agencies, mainly Middle Eastern and Mediterranean, are aware of the challenge facing their businesses. The Middle East has been one of the most affected regions, together with the Americas and South Asia, following the attacks of 11 September.
According to WTO statistics, travel to the Middle East dropped by 8.8 per cent in 2001, compared with 2000. However, the impact of 11 September was not the exhibitors only concern. The threat of a possible invasion of Iraq made future prospects for regional tourism vague and uncertain.
"The outlook for tourism in Egypt is positive despite the current turbulence in the region. There are good prospects for a boom in October, November and December as long as the regional status quo is maintained. If Iraq is attacked then we will all have to forget about tourism for a while," said Nabila Samak, director of public relations at the Semiramis Intercontinental hotel.
However, Fatma El-Beheiry of the Thomas Cook travel agency, that deals mainly with British and the American markets, feels that the market is already stagnant. "For us it is not booming at all. There is some travel from Australia but the British and American markets are dead. We are all waiting for what will happen in the next few months. It is true that many travellers are phoning up, asking questions about prices and accommodation but this is all we get; only questions, no down payments, no commitments," she said.
Travel agencies dealing with Japanese, Italian and Spanish markets also reported a slump in their business, often by as much as 70 per cent.
However, Hani Youssef of Planet Tours was optimistic. "The East European market has not been adversely affected by the 11 September attacks. I believe that they are going to fill most of the hotel rooms in Egypt in October," he said.
For hoteliers, however, filling up rooms is not the only challenge. According to Maha Saad, director of public relations at Middle East Starwood Hotels and Resorts, decreased occupancies have been compensated for by Arab and Eastern European tourists, but the main challenge remained that of low prices. "Instability in the Middle East has meant lower prices. The real challenge will be to return to our previous rates. Unless we have peace and stability in the region, we won't be able to regain our price positioning as a tourist destination," she said.
Just as travel patterns in the West have changed since 11 September, favouring destinations closer to home, so too the travel trends of Arab tourists. Instead of travelling to European and American countries this summer, many Arabs chose to travel within their region. Most Arab capitals witnessed a boom this summer, while European countries reported a decrease in Arab visitors.
According to a report by the Ministry of Tourism, August saw tremendous growth in Arab tourism, with a 26 per cent increase over the same month last year. Saudi Arabia topped the list, jumping to third position in terms of incoming traffic. Tourists also flocked to Egypt from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Yemen with total traffic, including Saudi Arabia, of 70,271 tourists.
Jordan, which previously relied mainly on European tourism, saw a big increase in Arab tourists. "June witnessed a 20 per cent increase in Arab tourists over the same month in 2000. July witnessed a 17 per cent increase while August saw a huge 27 per cent increase over 2001," Jaber Abu Sultan of the Jordanian Ministry of Tourism told the Weekly.
Syria, according to Syrian Minister of Tourism Saadallah Agha Al-Qala'a, has achieved a 27 per cent increase in the number of the Arab travellers this summer, compared with the same period last year. According to press reports, thousands of tourists from the Gulf, who used to spend their holidays in Europe, have decided to spend their summer in Lebanese resorts such as Behemdoun and Aliya instead of Europe.
Surprisingly, even Gulf countries managed to attract a large number of summer tourists. Summer festivals and discounts on products and hotel accommodation made them particularly attractive destinations. According to Mohamed Bin Hareb Al-Muhairy of the Dubai Department of Tourism, occupancy rates in Dubai hotels this summer reached 90 per cent, "something that was amazing and unprecedented because summer has always been a dead season," he told the Weekly.
On the other hand, the United Kingdom, which used to receive thousands of summer Arab visitors, witnessed a 5 per cent drop following the attacks of 11 September. In 2001 the number of Arabs visiting the UK was 423,000, in 2000 it was 426,000. However, "there are indications that the figure might increase by 2 to 3 per cent by the end of 2002 following an aggressive marketing and media campaign tailored for Arab tourists," said Mohamed El-Mansour, regional public relations manager of the British Tourist Authority.
"All signs show that the strong growth this region experienced during the period from 1998 to 2000 are set to resume. Our forecasts up to 2020 suggest that the Middle East, as long as there is peace and stability, will not only share in the foreseeable growth of world tourism, but will also considerably outstrip the average," Frangialli said.

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