Issue No. 605
International
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26 Sept. - 2 October 2002 Issue No. 605 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Troubled decisions
Turkey has to choose between EU accession and the lure of US freebies, Michael Jansen writes from Nicosia
Ahead of meetings between Greek and Turkish Cypriot negotiators and the UN Secretary-General Kofi Anan early next month, the Turks are sticking to their traditional hardline demands. Turkish Cypriot leader, Rauf Denktash, continues to insist upon international recognition for his breakaway state in the north, which is currently recognised only by Turkey, and for a political settlement based on two independent states rather than the bizonal, bicommunal federation proposed by the UN and accepted by the Greek Cypriots.
Turkey's refusal to make concessions prompted a European diplomat in Brussels to question whether it "is wise at this juncture to state clearly that Cyprus will be in the next wave" of European Union (EU) enlargement. His remark raised suspicions that some EU members would try to exclude Cyprus from the list of candidates that will be presented for approval to EU leaders on 24-25 October.
While these observations were rejected by the European Commission, which said that Cyprus' bid for EU membership could not be derailed by the lack of a political settlement on the divided island. However, observers here and in Greece believe that the diplomat represented the views of EU members friendly to Turkey. Athens promptly reacted by reiterating its threat to veto the entire enlargement process if Cyprus, which leads the pack in carrying out EU requirements, is treated differently than the other nine candidates.
Talks between Denktash and Cyprus President Glafkos Clerides, which opened in mid-January, raised hopes that the outline of a settlement could be achieved by June. But there has been no real progress. An important factor behind Ankara's immobility was President George Bush's decision last February to place Iraq in an "axis of evil" alongside Iran and North Korea. The Turks, properly concluded that their cooperation would be essential in any military campaign against either or both of its neighbours. Turkey can count on military, economic and political benefits for going along with Washington. During talks between US and Turkish officials on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting the two sides spelled out their requirements, if Bush decides to wage war on Iraq.
The US wants Turkey to grant staging facilities for large numbers of US troops flying into northern Iraq and to provide logistical support including any needed military support.
In exchange, the US would provide Turkey with strategic, economic and political assistance. Washington would block the emergence of an independent or semi-independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Washington has, apparently, offered to occupy Kirkuk and Mosul to prevent the Iraqi Kurds from seizing these oil cities. Although the generals would like to claim Kirkuk and its oil fields on the pretext of protecting the Turkoman minority, they know that this would antagonise the Kurds, the Arab world, and Iran.
In Ankara's view, preserving the ethnic status quo in Iraq is essential for ensuring stability. The US would reimburse Turkey to the tune of $10 billion for lost trade and transit revenues for the pipeline which carries Iraqi oil across Turkish territory. Turkey's military equipment would be upgraded, sophisticated weaponry supplied, and technology transfers guaranteed. Finally, the US would back Ankara over Cyprus and its demand for a firm time-table for EU accession. Turkey also wants the US to ensure that the International Monetary Fund, which has already lent Ankara $16 billion, will continue to provide economic support.
Turkey, however, is wary of US promises. Ankara was to receive $1 billion a year for participating in the 1991 Gulf war, to off-set its negative economic impact, but Turkey has never received any of this money. As a result, Turkey is a somewhat reluctant ally.
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit has repeatedly stated his government's opposition to a war in the region and aligned his country with the rejection front made up of Europeans, the Arabs and Iran. Turkey is not convinced that Iraq poses a threat to its neighbours or the world, as Bush claims, or that the US has come up with a strategy which would preserve the integrity of Iraq and replace the current regime with one that would ensure stability.
While Ankara cannot afford to jeopardise its relations with the US by opposing a war or risk its own geo- strategic interests by staying on the sidelines, Turkey cannot afford another war. Its fragile economy is struggling to pull out of a period of deep recession and instability. The economic progress made over the past year could be cancelled out by a war: trade would be disrupted, tourism would halt, development projects would stall and investors would hesitate to sink funds into the region.
Turkey is already facing political upheaval and the possibility of an army coup if the Islamists do well in the 3 November poll. A war would strengthen the hand of the military on the political scene, undermining Turkey's bid for EU membership. EU requirements for membership include exclusion of the army from politics and a Cyprus settlement, which the army rejects. Hence, a war would fortify two major obstacles on the road to EU accession which is a goal the majority of Turks want to achieve.
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