Al-Ahram Weekly | Opinion | Losing the Intifada

		26 Sept. - 2 October 2002 Issue No. 605 Opinion	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

Losing the Intifada
There are no winners, just losers, argues Mustafa El-Feki*

If we want to understand the results of the Palestinian Intifada we have to go back to the summer of 2000 when there was a general feeling, especially at the Taba meetings, that a peaceful settlement was within reach. A few weeks before the departure of the Clinton administration, we thought that a declaration of principles on a final settlement would be announced, but we soon discovered that things had gone in a different direction. The turning point was the approval former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak gave to Ariel Sharon to visit Al-Aqsa Mosque, surrounded by soldiers. The next day, Friday, clashes took place between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli security forces. Some Palestinians were killed and the Intifada was born.
If we want to discuss the impact of the Intifada on the road to peace and on the Palestinian Authority we have to consider whether Sharon's visit was in fact a deliberate attempt to destroy peace efforts -- a result of Israel's discovery that it shouldn't move too quickly towards a peaceful settlement because the longer it was held off, the more the Palestinians could be squeezed. Simultaneously, the Palestinians realised that the Israelis were not really serious about a final settlement, especially on issues such as the right of return and the status of Jerusalem.
There have been gains and losses on both sides as a result of the Intifada. The Palestinians account can be summarised as follows. They proved to the whole world that they are ready to pay the highest price for their cause, their lives, and although suicide bombings do not take political consequences into consideration, they indicate that the Palestinians are more than willing to pay the ultimate price. The strength of Palestinian resistance came as a surprise not only to the Israelis and the world, but also to the Arabs who had sometimes accused the Palestinians of failing their cause and depending on collective Arab diplomacy. The Palestinians also gained a solid home front. Despite differences, they maintained their national unity at the most critical times. Gradually, the Palestinians convinced Arab leaders that they are serious about their cause and therefore earned their support. The Intifada also increased the popularity and credibility of President Yasser Arafat among his people. I am sure without the Intifada Arafat would be on his way to oblivion.
At the same time the Palestinians suffered losses as a result of the Intifada. They lost much internationally as Israel succeeded in convincing the world capitals that the Palestinians had rejected a generous offer in Autumn 2000, and instead of pursuing peace had embarked on the Intifada. Even traditional supporters of the Palestinians were taken in by Israel's argument. European support has been limited to the humanitarian level largely because suicide bombings have had a negative impact on the Palestinian image. The events of 11 September also affected the Palestinians and the Intifada adversely as the Israelis succeeded in mixing the issues of Palestinian resistance with international terrorism. The Israelis now consider themselves part of the US- led "war on terror" and President Bush has described Sharon as "a man of peace".
What gains the Palestinians secured on the ground after Oslo were destroyed as cities were re-occupied and the administration was brought close to total collapse.
In reckoning the gains and losses on the Israeli side one must note that the Israelis have shown themselves, as never before, as a state which cares nothing for regional and international reactions. Their message is: we are here with or without the acceptance of the Arabs. The Israelis have also succeeded in marginalising President Arafat and weakening the Palestinian leadership. Accordingly, Palestinian identity has suffered in the international arena as never before. President Arafat was once an international figure, received at the White House and treated as a head of state; now he is under siege, contained in two rooms in his headquarters in Ramallah. Israel has been successful in mixing the issues of Palestinian resistance with international terrorism, and found sympathetic ears in many political circles, especially in the West, for its aggression. Israel was also able to bring the situation on the ground back to square one, and the Palestinians no longer enjoy the same support they once did. President Clinton once addressed the Palestinian National Council at its headquarters. Now the Palestinian leadership could not be more detached from Washington.
At the same time the Israelis have lost -- perhaps forever -- the image they long-tried to foster as a state seeking to live in peace, cooperation and co-existence with its neighbours. They have also lost the opportunity to activate peace and normalise relations with moderate Arab countries. Israel is now viewed as a country willing to forego peace in favour of a skewed vision of security, skewed because there is no security without peace. At the same time the Israeli economy has suffered dramatically, especially in the tourism sector. National income has dropped, and military costs escalated.
Neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis are winning. They are both losers. Peace is beyond reach, violence is increasing, regional stability is shaken, the Israelis are surrounded by critics, and the Palestinians receive nothing but lip-service. At times I wonder whether the Palestinians would not have been better off without the Intifada beginning two years ago. But then I remember the weeks that passed without any suicide bombings, and how scores of Palestinian children, women and men were still being killed by the Israeli army. It is then I remember that Israel is not interested in peace, is failing to think of the future.
* The writer is chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the People's Assembly.