Issue No. 606
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3 - 9 October 2002 Issue No. 606 Home news |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Obstructing war
Despite its best efforts Cairo is far from hopeful that a US-British military attack on Iraq could be averted, report Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty
Convinced that war is around the corner, President Hosni Mubarak said on Tuesday that he is "personally" monitoring the escalation of tensions between the US and Iraq over Baghdad's alleged stockpiling of weapons of mass destruction. "Egypt is closely studying the possibility of war in the region, and its repercussions for Egypt," said Mubarak, on his way for a quick visit to Libya.
Click to view captionTalks between Syria's Al-Assad (top) and Libya's Gaddafi (above) sought to find a common Arab strategy to confront the threats facing the region Shuttle diplomacy among Arab leaders was intensified this week as concern rose that a US strike to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein was imminent. The president met several Arab leaders to consult on the various scenarios for the region if the US carried out its threats against Iraq, whether Washington secured a UN Security Council resolution for its actions or not. "It is important that we know [as Arabs] where we are going and which direction we will take," Mubarak said before meeting with Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi.
The threat of war loomed closer on the horizon as the US and UK circulated a new draft UN Security Council resolution against Iraq. While the US lobbied the other three permanent Security Council members, Egyptian officials worked to avert the possibility of a military attack against Baghdad.
If worse comes to worse and a bill of force against Baghdad is obtained, Egypt will probably be left with few options other than to support the new resolution, say observers. Analysts believe that Cairo will eventually have to give in to international pressure and when it does so it will support the French proposal. The French have suggested a resolution concerning the matter of weapons inspections and possibly a second one about the use of force. "If the international community moves in that direction, Egypt will be more inclined towards the French approach," one analyst told Al-Ahram Weekly. Cairo is keeping Washington informed about its concerns, but how effective this approach will be in swaying US President George W Bush's determination to strike Iraq is unclear, the analyst added. Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher refused to discuss how Egypt would respond should efforts to secure the return of inspectors fail. "I do not want to comment on an issue that is still under discussion," he said on Sunday.
Before visiting Gaddafi on Tuesday in the Libyan town Sert, Mubarak held talks with Syria's Bashar Al-Assad on Monday. Last week, Mubarak was in Saudi Arabia to consult with Crown Prince Abdullah, and additional meetings between Mubarak and Arab leaders are expected in the coming few weeks.
After three hours of talks on Monday, Mubarak and Al-Assad issued a joint communiqué asserting a commitment to "face the current challenges as one". The two leaders agreed that a unified, comprehensive vision by the Arabs is needed to "effectively confront the dangers threatening our strategic interests".
Mubarak and Al-Assad urged the UN Security Council to maintain international peace and stability and prevent a military strike by the US against Baghdad. In this vein, they expressed hope that inspection teams would resume their work in Iraq "very soon" under a mandate from the Security Council. The leaders noted that the Iraqi issue poses "a real threat" to all parties, and agreed that international opinion must be rallied to oppose military action against Iraq.
Last week, Mubarak advised Baghdad to try win over world public opinion, avoid making "provocative statements" and comply with Security Council resolutions in order to prevent an escalation of tensions. "We have to use our heads," Mubarak said on 25 September after talks with Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah. In press statements aboard his plane as he returned to Cairo, Mubarak said that a war in the region would be "catastrophic and would have international repercussions."
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher consulted with Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Mohamed Al-Salem Al-Sabah on Sunday, and told reporters that all Arab countries see eye-to-eye on the Iraq issue. Standing by his side, Al-Sabah seemed less forceful about his country's support for Iraq. "What was agreed upon at the [Arab] summit in Beirut was that we are against the threat or use of force against any Arab country, including Iraq," Al-Sabah said. "This position is linked to Iraq's implementation of international resolutions," including those dealing with Kuwaiti POW's, he added. "The ball is in Saddam Hussein's court, and he has to avert any pretexts [for military strikes] by implementing these resolutions seriously."
Egyptian officials argue that Iraq must be given a chance to comply with Security Council resolutions. "It is rational to wait and see if Iraq will comply," Maher said during a lecture at Cairo University's American Studies Centre on Saturday. "If Iraq does not fulfill its obligations, the Security Council will embark upon procedures it deems necessary."
Consultations this week were not limited to Arab players, but included European allies in an attempt to avoid the adoption of a new resolution that would legitimise the use of force against Iraq. On Sunday, Maher called his Russian counterpart Igor Ivanov, whose country believes that priority should be given to encouraging the deployment of UN inspectors, rather than a new resolution.
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