Al-Ahram Weekly | Opinion

		3 - 9 October 2002 Issue No. 606 Opinion	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

Summit time
By Salama A Salama

Arab League Secretary- General Amr Moussa has said, on more than one occasion, that there are no plans to convene an Arab summit because there has been no change in Arab policy since the March summit declared its opposition to military action against Iraq.
The current situation, though, differs from that of six months ago. The war rhetoric has escalated, and the US is pursuing military preparations with alarming speed. There can be no doubt left that war is in the offing, with or without the approval of the UN Security Council, with or without the approval of the Arab world.
The Americans seem confident that they can overcome international opposition, either from their European allies or from the Russians and Chinese, so long as Washington promises to take care of their interests and perhaps even hand them a piece of the pie when it asserts its control over energy sources worldwide. Something is missing, however. What has been overlooked, in the flurry of impending hostilities, is Arab regimes and nations who fear the pincer- like outcome of military action against Iraq. The US occupation of Iraq will unleash political, ethnic, and religious turbulence. Israel, meanwhile, will gobble up Palestine, posing even greater threats to neighbouring countries.
Washington, clearly, is not losing much sleep over the concerns of Arab regimes and nations. The dominant view within the US administration is that Arab sentiments do not matter and that Arab regimes, as a whole, will fall in line. Some Arab governments have actually begun to lend assistance to the military campaign. Arab nations did not -- against all expectations -- do much when US planes bombed Muslim Afghans in Ramadan, or when Arafat was under siege and the Intifada was being brutally suppressed. Besides, there are signs that the Iraqis will be the first to welcome US soldiers, once the Baghdad regime is overthrown and US and UK forces take control of the country.
Arab collaboration with the US is already underway, albeit covertly. US military hardware is pouring into Kuwait, where Washington maintains a massive base. In Oman British troops stand ready to join the war effort at any time, and the US is adding an airbase to facilitate the process. Bahrain hosts the US Fifth Fleet and two aircraft carriers. In Qatar the gigantic Al-Odeid base is being readied to serve as US central command, overseeing the operations. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, while trying hard to change Washington's mind, have mostly assumed a wait-and-see stance.
Such is the position of Arab governments. As for the people, it is difficult to predict their reaction. US analysts think that Arab nations are likely to view the war against Iraq as a chance to get rid of regimes that have passed their sell-by date. This is why US statements are peppered with talk about the democracy, freedom, and prosperity that US troops are to bring to Iraq and other Arab countries. These US views are unsubstantiated, just as they were in the cases of Afghanistan, Vietnam, and Korea. The US assumes that the campaign against Iraq will be a brief affair, a picnic. What Washington has so far failed to grasp is the underlying sentiments and realities of the region. Washington does not fully comprehend the extent of suspicion and hatred that US policies have generated over the past few decades.
Much has changed since the last Arab summit was held in March. An extraordinary Arab summit could go a long way toward reformulating the Arab position. The Arabs should be ready for all eventualities.

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