Issue No. 608
International
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17 - 23 October 2002 Issue No. 608 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Surprises all around
Ominously, anti-American militant Islamists did better than expected in Pakistani elections, reports Iffat Malik from Islamabad
This week both India and Pakistan are coming to terms with election results that differ significantly from what pundits had been predicting. The expectation was that pro-Establishment figures would do well, aided, critics claimed, by the state. The reality is that anti-Establishment figures stole the show.
In Indian Kashmir, elections for the 87-member State Assembly were expected to return the National Conference (NC) to power. It has been ruling the state for most of the 55 years since partition. The pro-independence All Parties Hurriyat Conference boycotted the polls, thus supposedly leaving the field clear for the National Conference and its young leader Omar Abdullah. He is the son of the outgoing Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, grandson of the charismatic leader Sheikh Abdullah, and deputy foreign minister in the Vajpayee government. His failure to win a seat in the Assembly was therefore, to put it mildly, a shock.
The National Conference won only 28 seats, well short of the 44 needed for an absolute majority. The Party lost ground in Hindu-majority Jammu province to the Congress Party and in the predominantly Muslim Valley to the People's Democratic Party. The PDP, like the NC, is opposed to independence. But it is not tainted by the allegations of corruption and misrule that dog the NC. By voting for the PDP, Kashmiris were perhaps signaling their disillusionment with the 13-year armed separatist movement.
Turnout in the election varied considerably, from a high 60 per cent in Hindu areas to 11 per cent or less in pro- independence Muslim areas. The polls were marred by violence, over 700 people have been killed since elections were announced. In the past, the Indian government has been accused, usually with good reason, of rigging Kashmiri elections. The surprise result of these recent elections will at least quash those allegations.
The Congress Party won 20 seats and the PDP 16, it is expected that they will now most likely join forces in a coalition government. This could lead to fresh dialogue between New Delhi and Srinagar over the long-standing bones of contention such as regional autonomy.
Meanwhile, in neighbouring Pakistan, voters also sent a clear message challenging the status quo. For the last couple of decades, Pakistani politics has been dominated by two parties: the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). The third and most important player in the power game has, of course, been the army. In these elections for National and Provincial Assemblies, the army was expected to ensure victory for the pro-Musharraf faction of the Pakistan Muslim League, the PML(Q). This would allow Musharraf to install a pliant civilian government, while keeping the real power himself.
Thanks to the constitutional amendments he introduced before the elections, the latter, Musharraf keeping real power, will still happen. The constitutional changes include giving himself the authority to dismiss the government. But the former, installation of a pliant government, could prove to be more difficult. The PML(Q) did win the largest number of seats in the National Assembly, but nowhere near enough for an outright majority. Surprisingly it was not the PPP or even the pro-Nawaz Sharif (Pakistan's ousted prime minister) faction of the League that blocked its path. Rather, the six-party alliance of Islamic groups, the Mutahida Majlis Amal (MMA) proved to be the largest obstacle.
Religious parties have never done well in Pakistani elections, rarely winning more than a handful of seats. In these elections, analysts were expecting the MMA to win at most 20 seats. The fact that the MMA gained more than 50 of the 272 contested seats, including one in the capital Islamabad, was a huge shock.
The MMA's main campaign slogan was criticism of the US, and the Musharraf government for allying itself with the US against the Taliban. That criticism especially struck a chord with voters in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) that neighbours Afghanistan. The MMA swept the board there, and did well in neighbouring Balochistan. It will now form the Provincial government in the NWFP and do so in alliance with regional parties in Balochistan.
But there was another, quite unexpected reason, for the Islamic Alliance's success. In the three years since he seized power, General Musharraf has taken every opportunity to attack the two main political parties, the PPP and PML, accusing them both of looting the country to fill their own pockets. His strategy to undermine their support appears to have worked to the advantage of the religious parties. With no other major political party to vote for, the disillusioned electorate turned to the Islamists.
As in Indian Kashmir, so in Pakistan the surprise anti- government results indicate that the polls were generally free and fair. Turnout was low, around 35 per cent, but this is in keeping with the general trend in recent elections. Voting was marred by a few incidents of sporadic violence, seven people were killed, but on the whole elections went peacefully.
In a televised address to the nation on the eve of the elections, President Musharraf promised to hand 'full executive powers' to a civilian prime minister and government by 1 November. The question is -- to whom? As the PML(Q) has the largest number of seats (almost 80) in the National Assembly, he will invite it to form the government. But it has two problems, first, its leader Mian Azhar failed to win a seat so it needs to find a replacement quickly, which will not be an easy task given the number of people jostling for the position. Two, there is a lack of suitable coalition partners.
The PML(Q) will have to enter into alliance with the PML (N), PPP or MMA. An alliance with either of the first two parties is highly unlikely given the history of animosity between them. The third option, the MMA, might be OK for the PML(Q) but would be problematic for President Musharraf and his American supporters.
Washington has been pressing Musharraf to do more to find Al-Qa'eda and Taliban members who it claims have fled from Afghanistan to Pakistan's tribal belt and NWFP. The MMA has already said it will not hand any Taliban over to the Americans. Even if it does not form part of the coalition government in Islamabad, it will be heading the provincial government in those areas. Hence it could prove to be a significant obstacle to Musharraf as he tries to comply with American demands. All in all, then, the elections have ensured that uncertain times are ahead for Pakistan.
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