Issue No. 608
International
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17 - 23 October 2002 Issue No. 608 International |
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Landmark elections in Kashmir
Kashmir's recent elections may be the first step on the long road to peace, report Murad Bukhari and Sudhanshu Ranjan from Srinagar
For the first time in 27 years, the people of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) have voted for a government in which the incumbent National Conference (NC) isn't playing a major role. The significance of this cannot be overstated. For most of Kashmir's post-independence history, politics has been dominated by the NC and the Abdullah family. Last week, for the first time in 13 years, free and fair elections were held, and the NC was crushed at the polls.
The election results have the potential to herald in a new era of politics in this bruised and battered state. Indeed, no less than the President of the NC and the Indian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Omar Abdullah, was ousted from his traditional bastion, Ganderbal, a seat that has been held by both his father, Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, and his grandfather Sheikh Mohamed Abdullah, founder of the NC. Omar Abdullah lost the seat to Qazi Mohamed Afzal of the People's Democratic Party (PDP).
The results are a body blow not only to the NC but also to the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) which heads the central government of India.
Particularly shocking was the BJP's drubbing in the Jammu region, its traditional stronghold. In the 1996 elections the party had won eight seats in the region. This time around the BJP could only muster one, while its ally, the Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh (RSS) got another.
The Congress Party, which had, hitherto, been marginalised in state politics, has bounced back with 22 seats. It has made inroads into the Jammu region by gaining nine seats at the expense of the NC and the BJP.
The PDP, with 16 seats, has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the Kashmir Valley. The PDP and Congress are now working overtime to form a coalition government to rule the state.
However, neither party is willing to forgo its claim to the chief ministership. The Congress argues that it has a natural claim to the post of chief minister since it has a larger number of elected representatives. The PDP counters that its regional character is more suited to leading the state and solving its problems.
Led by Mufti Mohamed Sayeed, former Indian home minister, and his daughter Mehbooba Mufti, the PDP has kindled hopes to usher Kashmir into a new era of peace by promising to facilitate talks between militants and the central government.
Additionally, it has promised to fight for the abrogation of tough security laws such as the newly enacted Prevention of Terrorist Act and Disturbed Areas Act. In fact, it is these promises that have helped the party emerge as a major player in state politics. Ironically, terrorism got a big boost in the state in 1989 while Mufti Mohamed Sayeed was the central government's home minister. Shortly after being sworn into office, terrorists abducted his daughter, Dr. Rubiya Sayeed. Four terrorists were subsequently released in exchange for her recovery. This move emboldened militants and since then peace has eluded the state. This incident is considered by many to be a turning point in the Kashmir Valley's history of militancy. The Congress reportedly prefers a chief minister from the Jammu region. Senior Congress leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad, has emerged as the most likely contender for the post but the party has left the choice to Party President Sonia Gandhi.
Independent candidates have also emerged as a major player by winning 11 seats. They include Ghulam Mohamed Sofi, one of the four proxy candidates of the People's Conference (PC), a constituent of the pro-independence all-parties Hurriyat Conference, which called for a boycott against the elections. In fact, the PC, against the wishes of the Hurriyat, was trying to test its strength by fielding proxy candidates.
The Hurriyat has been utterly embarrassed by its position on the Kashmiri elections, which been both fair and much more popular than it had anticipated. Its boycott call did not work in several areas. Additionally, the PDP has claimed many of the issues on the Hurriyat's agenda, as its own. These include, dialogue with militants, the release of jailed leaders and a halt to police and army excesses. Indeed, the election results are being seen as a mandate for peace, brightening the prospects of talks between militants and New Delhi. Even a section of the Hurriyat admits that a new beginning can be made, particularly because Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had promised to hold talks with Kashmir's elected representatives. Many former militants are also of the opinion that the 2002 elections are the antithesis of the 1987 elections. Rigging of the 87 elections drove many of Kashmir's youth to militancy in the first place. They say that Vajpayee, in his Independence Day speech to the nation promised free and fair polls and to talk with Kashmir's elected representatives. "He delivered on the first, and we believe he will do so on the second," says former militant Firdous Syed.
Success at the polls has paved the way for Prime Minister Vajpayee to push forward with his peace initiative in Kashmir and open fresh channels of dialogue in search of a political solution to the region's troubles. While there are noises from the RSS warning against talking to militants, the presence of the Congress in the Kashmiri power structure provides Vajpayee with an opportunity to counter political hawks. This may be the time to forge a national consensus on both Kashmir as well as Pakistan policy.
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