Issue No. 608
Region
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17 - 23 October 2002 Issue No. 608 Region |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Kurdish concerns
Iraqi Kurds work on building a united front in preparation for regime change in Iraq, reports Azadeh Moaveni from Arbil
In northern Iraq, the US's aggressive campaign for regime change in Iraq appears to have triggered nothing short of a political miracle -- reconciliation between Iraqi Kurdistan's two warring factions. For most of the past decade, Kurdish fighting has paralysed the region. Many cease-fires have been agreed to and swiftly broken with both Iran and Iraq having been invited to intervene by both sides.
But with Washington organising the Iraqi opposition in preparation for regime change in Baghdad, the Kurds realize that a united Kurdish front is a prerequisite for Hussein's removal. "There are times when you must tidy your house, before it gets blown over," said Hoshyar Zabari, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).
Against a backdrop of speculation and fears of sabotage, the first broadly inclusive session of the Kurdistan National Assembly since 1994 was held early this month in Arbil, the bustling administrative capital of the Kurdish autonomous zone. Delegates gathered from around the region to witness KDP leader Massud Barzani and PUK (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan) leader Jalal Talabani shake hands, apologise for years of fighting, and agree to cooperate on a shared vision for Iraq's future. In the parliamentary hall built for them by Hussein himself, the two outlined their expectations for a post- Hussein northern Iraq, and hinted at how their parties would work in the efforts to oust Hussein and in the following period.
In many ways the protection of the British and US enforced "no-fly" zone over northern Iraq has allowed the Iraqi Kurds to act as an independent state since 1991. The Kurds are clearly eager to maintain the control that they have gained over the last ten years. However, the idea of a fully independent Kurdish state is not welcome in the region. Both Iran and Turkey oppose the idea. In this environment, the Kurds must find a balance that will allow them to maintain a level of autonomy within the territorial integrity of modern Iraq. Many believe the solution to this quandry is federalism.
The Kurds are careful to couch their federal vision in diplomatic terms, but it is not clear how much American support they have for its finer points. Kurdish officials say the US privately backs the concept of federalism, and will prevent Turkey from tampering with the future Kurdish entity no matter what its form.
Both the KDP and PUK are enthusiastic to participate in Washington's plans for regime change in Iraq. When a message from US Secretary of State Colin Powell was read aloud during the parliamentary session, delegates stood for a standing ovation. "I am proud you are among the United States's partners in the fight against tyranny and terror, and that you share our vision for Iraq's future," read Powell's message. But the role that KDP and PUK are so eager to play and the role the US has reserved for them are quite different. The Kurds prefer to participate militarily in an American campaign, rather than being accessories or observers of a US invasion. Their Peshmerga Fighters could theoretically play the same role in an invasion plan as the Afghani Northern Alliance did in the campaign against the Taliban. "We've told Washington we're ready when you are," says one senior Kurdish official.
But Washington appears to be unwilling to embrace this strategy -- reports that the Pentagon would begin training Peshmergas to operate in tandem with American special forces have not materialised. Additionally, both Barzani and Talabani say they have not received specific requests for military assistance from the US. However, according to Barzani, US officials have promised to protect the region in case Iraqi forces mount an attack before or during an American campaign.
But in the absence of military coordination from Washington, Kurdish leaders are taking the initiative to cooperate with the other main armed Iraqi opposition group -- the Supreme Council For Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which is led by Ayatollah Mohamed Al-Hakim. KDP officials are maintaing close contact with Al- Hakim's group. At the tail end of the Gulf War, when both the Kurds and Shia launched their uncoordinated uprisings in the north and south respectively, Saddam was able to quash both insurrections easily. Both the Kurds and the Shia hope that by having more coordinated efforts they will be able to avoid the tragedies of the past.
Whether the Kurds can successfully participate in the removal of Saddam Hussein, maintain their treasured autonomy from Baghdad, and keep Iran and Turkey at bay, remains to be seen. The past has proven that maintaining stability in this region is difficult, and it may prove to be even more difficult in the hands of a group that has more experience in fighting and conflict than in brokering peace deals and promoting multi-partisan and multi- ethnic unity.
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