Al-Ahram Weekly | Region

		24 - 30 October 2002 Issue No. 609 Region	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

Water worries
How is a lifeline to be shared in politically turbulent times, while catering to conflicting economic interests? Fatemah Farag considers the challenges discussed at the First Regional Conference on Perspectives of Arab Water Cooperation

Water shortages in the Middle East are expected to become more frequent and more severe. By the year 2030, water deficiency is expected to reach approximately 155 billion square metres per year, which amounts to 60 per cent of the current total water sources.
"The Arab world is currently facing one of the most severe water scarcities in the world," Egypt's Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mahmoud Abu Zeid said. "Most of the Arab region lies in an arid and semi-arid zone where rainfall is mostly low, variable and unpredictable. Sixty per cent of the fresh water resources in Arab countries come from outside the region."
It is this alarming state of affairs that drew specialists from across the Arab world to Cairo last week to attend the First Regional Conference on Perspectives of Arab Water Cooperation organised by the National Water Research Centre (NWRC) with the cooperation of UNESCO. "There is an urgent need for concrete cooperation between Arab countries to exchange experiences, knowledge and relevant information under one common umbrella, which is one of the conference objectives. The ultimate goal is to optimise the use of Arab water and human resources efficiently and effectively," said Mona El-Kady, head of NWRC.
The challenges, however, are formidable. The Arab world is currently characterised by an annual population growth rate of 2.5 per cent, topping the world rate of 1.7 per cent. From 300 million inhabitants in 2001, population projections indicate that an estimated 375 million will inhabit the Arab world in 2010 and over 500 million by the year 2025. This not only generates a greater need for water, but causes an expansion of urban areas and more pollution of water sources, in addition to desertification. Factor in poverty and unemployment and the picture is bleak indeed.
"With a population growth rate among the highest in the world and water consumption rising at a higher rate than is replenished naturally, by the year 2025, renewable water supplies in almost all countries of the region will fall below 700 cubic metres per capita [the lowest in the world]," said Ahmed Goweili, secretary-general of the Council of Arab Economic Unity.
The result of water scarcity is conflict. For some time now pundits have been predicting that water could prove to be a major source of future wars. Israel's plunder of Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese water resources, is an obvious case in point. Further, Turkey and Syria continue to argue over the water of the Tigris and Euphrates.
With the political ramifications of water management clearly in sight, the conference focused on more technical issues such as use efficiency and consumption patterns.
"Despite some scope for greater efficiency in water use and recycling in the region, there is simply not enough water for expanding irrigated agriculture to meet the region's rising food needs," argued Goweili. Abu Zeid added that "Most potential water resources in Arab countries have already been developed. Several Arab countries are suffering from water deficiency and others are heading that way, with an annual population growth of about three per cent and rising levels of consumption due to socioeconomic development," he said.
This has dire consequences on food security in the region. Already, 30 to 50 per cent of the Arab world's food consumption needs are imported.
Contributing to the water shortage is the fact that low-value uses continue to account for much of consumption and irrigation systems are still inefficient. Abu Zeid drove this point home by explaining that "growing tomatoes with traditional irrigation systems may require 40 per cent more water than growing tomatoes with drip systems... [Further] we can conserve water not only by altering how we chose to grow our food, but also by changing what we choose to eat."
A mere 10 per cent improvement in efficiency of water delivery for irrigation systems could conserve enough water to double the amount available for drinking, he said.
But even if consumption patterns were to change, would there be enough water to go around? Not according to Goweili. "While representing 10 per cent of the world's total surface area and five per cent of the total population of the world, the Arab countries contain only 0.5 per cent of global water resources," he said.
While rainfall estimates for the Arab countries amounts to about 220 billion cubic metres per year, El-Kady pointed out, the usable amount is only about 103 billion cubic metres per year since considerable amounts go into the wetlands.
Meanwhile, limited underground water resources have prompted the use of alternative acquifers, which are a source of potential conflict. "The enormous amounts of pure water below the deserts of Africa could help avert a future water crisis. But the underground acquifers cross international boundaries, raising the spectre of future water wars as populations increase and competition for water resources heats up in the absence of cooperation and good-will," El-Kady said.
The number of water-scarce Arab countries has risen from three countries (Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait) in 1955 to 11 (Algeria, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen) today, with another seven anticipated to join the list by 2025.
In the meantime, the exorbitant cost of upgrading the efficiency of existing water supply systems, be they irrigation or municipal, stands as a major constraint. "The current annual investment in water programmes is about $80 billion. For the coming 10 years, the desired annual level of investment is estimated at $280 billion," Abu Zeid said.
He suggests that part of the solution is to "promote, propagate and make available low-cost technologies for water storage, conveyance, distribution, treatment and use for agriculture, drinking and industrial application," instead of relying on expensive imported technology, as the Arab world does. Statistics cited at the conference show that the Arab region currently spends only 0.2 per cent of its GDP on research and development, against a world average of 1.4 per cent.
Among the recommendations for action that emerged from the conference debates were the need to establish a "Council of Arab Ministers" that would work on creating an integrated Arab vision for water resources, the improvement of water productivity of irrigation systems and the creation of a common fund for Arab water security to finance necessary research and water projects.
"A message that we must see coming out of this conference is a strong affirmation of our consensus, inspired by the values of solidarity and equity. The core of the message should be that we are now ready to move on to acting as true stewards of the environment," Abu Zeid said.
After all, as El-Kady made clear, "Water and sanitation are basic human needs, not a favour."
Additional reporting by Lina Mahmoud

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