Issue No. 611
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7 - 13 November 2002 Issue No. 611 International |
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| Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875 | Recommend this page | ||
Republican grip still firm
The results of Tuesday's mid-term elections are widely seen as a test of US President George W Bush's popularity and his chances of winning a second term in 2004. Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington
In less than a week, United States President George Bush has made 17 stops in 15 states to call upon Americans to vote Republican, and defy the tradition that the party controlling the White House usually loses mid- term elections. He concluded his tour in his hometown of Crawford, Texas, on Monday night, looking forward to results that, if in his favour, could determine his political future and chances of winning a second term in 2004.
Analysts agreed that Bush's heavy involvement in this year's campaigning has increased the stakes in what has generally been seen as a boring election. In a recent poll conducted by The New York Times and CBS, more than 40 per cent of respondents said they were interested in showing up at ballot boxes on election day even though they did not expect any major changes to result from the vote. The same poll indicated that voters believed Democrats would be concerned with improving the deteriorating economy and offering more social services to the needy. Meanwhile, Republicans rated higher on combating terrorism and handling foreign affairs.
However, most respected pollsters tended to agree that few major changes could be expected out of this election. Republicans were likely to retain control of the 435-member Congress, where they have had a majority of six seats since 2000, while Democrats would maintain their one-seat majority in the 100-member Senate. Democrats are also likely to win a few posts in the race for state governors where polls showed that there was dissatisfaction among voters due to economic decline.
"Right now, the playing field looks very, very level," said Charles Cook, a political analyst and expert on US elections. "We don't see any kind of trend towards either party in terms of the national mood," he added. Cook, regarded as one of the leading authorities on US elections and political trends, added that there were two main factors pulling voters in two opposite directions. "You have got the economy pulling the elections towards Democrats, and then you have foreign policy concerns, terrorism and potential war with Iraq pulling in the opposite direction; and they are two very powerful forces."
Feeling that tours by the US president, Vice President Dick Cheney and even the president's wife, Laura Bush, could play into the Republicans favour, Democrats also sought to use their own popular figures. Former US President Bill Clinton and former Vice- President Al Gore toured nearly all the states visited by Bush and his top aides. Democrats also fought to bring people to the polls, calculating that voter apathy would work against them.
At stake on Tuesday were 435 House seats, several dozen of which were hotly contested; 34 Senate seats, of which six to eight looked like they could go either way; and 36 governorships. Voters were also choosing state legislatures, now split almost evenly between the parties, and deciding more than 200 ballot initiatives in 40 states.
Although, Democrats needed to gain only seven seats to win control of the House, polls indicated that would be tough, but conceivable. Republicans and Democrats each hold 49 seats, with two independents.
With memories still fresh of the Florida balloting fiasco of 2000, and more than 200 counties experimenting with new voting equipment, the suspense was not just over who would win or lose but whether counters would be able to tell the difference.
Federal observers were dispatched by the hundreds to polling stations in 14 states in the most ambitious monitoring of the nation's ballot boxes since the 1960s civil rights era. Florida got the most attention.
After all, during the presidential elections of 2000, President Bush was declared a winner by the Supreme Court after defeating his contender, former Vice- President Al Gore, with a tight margin of only 537 votes. Florida was key to this win.
In these current elections, President Bush's brother, Jeb, is trying to retain the Florida governor's office against a strong challenge from Tampa lawyer, Bill McBride. Both President Bush and former President Clinton lobbied heavily to prove that Florida was on their side, with many analysts saying that a vote for Jeb Bush was a vote about the president's popularity. Polls here indicate Jeb is ahead of McBride by eight points.
Although, the president's party normally loses ground in midterm elections, Democrats managed to add to their numbers in 1998, even when President Clinton was in the throes of the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, predicted Bush would also see gains. "The president is heartened by the fact that he appears likely to have broken the historical trend against incumbents in their first terms," Fleischer said on Monday.
Fleischer also noted that many races have been close, saying, "there's no telling how they are going to break, especially in the Senate."
Democrats have had effective Senate control going into the campaign, thanks to the defection from the Republican Party last year of Vermont Senator, Jim Jeffords, a Democratic-supporting independent.
But with the death of Minnesota Senator, Paul Wellstone, in a plane crash on 25 October, and the appointment on Monday of an independent as a temporary replacement for the upcoming "lame duck" session, it is now divided 49 to 49, with two independents.
Wellstone's death resulted in the return to politics of Walter Mondale, the former vice president, senator and presidential candidate, as replacement.
Republican governors hold power in eight of 12 Midwestern states, and have occupied the executive mansion in many of them for more than a decade. But that control was at risk on Tuesday when voters went to the polls.
In the South, a pair of Democratic governors, whose 1998 victories bucked the region's Republican leanings, are now struggling to stay in office. New England is also up for grabs, with out-of-power parties ahead in several states and very tight contests elsewhere.
This is important because of the ripple effects the governors' races are likely to have on domestic policy and presidential politics in 2004.
Cook also said that voters in many places seem ready for change after a long run with the same governor or party. "There is an anti-incumbent mood with respect to the governorships. As a result, you are going to see an enormous amount of turnover," he added.
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