Al-Ahram Weekly | International | Fracas over Cyprus

		14 - 20 November 2002 Issue No. 612 International	Current issue Previous issue Site map
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Fracas over Cyprus
The fate of Cyprus remains uncertain following the Turkish elections. Michael Jansen reports from Nicosia

Cyprus has become the major bone of contention between Turkey's "Muslim democrats" and its secular establishment. Forty hours after the Turkish election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, head of the victorious Justice and Development Party (JDP), announced his backing of the "Belgian model" for a Cyprus settlement.
The party's foreign affairs spokesman, Yasar Yakis, elaborated, "We see [two administrations under] a single roof based on political equality," indicating that the JDP is prepared to accept the international and Greek Cypriot demand for the new entity to be a federation with common sovereignty and a single international personality.
Greece as well as Greek and Turkish Cypriots welcomed Erdogan's statement, saying that his determination to take his country into the European Union (EU) could lead Ankara to agree on a resolution of the Cyprus problem. Cyprus' government spokesman, Michalis Papapetrou, said that Erdogan's pronouncement warranted serious consideration.
Erdogan changed his statement two days later following a briefing by Turkish Foreign Ministry officials. He said his remarks had been misunderstood and that "we do not want to mimic the Belgian model... but we are inspired by it." He reiterated Turkey's official line that a solution must take into account the existence of "two equal sovereign states".
In keeping with the party line, Erdogan was due to visit northern Cyprus on 15 November, the 19th anniversary of the unilateral declaration of the breakaway state, ahead of his visit to Athens on 18 November. The announcement of this trip angered both Nicosia and Athens. Ankara, for its part, intends to maintain a level of tension with the Greek side by sending two Turkish F-16 war planes west of the island of Rhodes to buzz Greek and Cypriot civilian airliners flying between Athens and Larnaca. The following day Erdogan announced the postponement of his visit to Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus ostensibly because Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash was in New York recuperating from a heart operation.
Erdogan's tactics reveal two things. Firstly, the AKP's victory has plunged the Turkish establishment into acute confusion. It simply does not know how to deal with the JDP and its ambitious and outspoken leader. Secondly, Erdogan is prepared to toe the official line for the time being. But Erdogan's genuine determination to take Turkey into the EU will ultimately compel the JDP to take a firm stand on the Cyprus issue.
Turkey's official view is that the Cyprus issue "was solved" when the Turkish army invaded and occupied the northern third of the island in 1974 and created a separate zone for Turkish Cypriots. Since then Ankara has insisted on recognition of Turkish Cypriot independence and a settlement based on two sovereign states. The United Nations, EU and the international community all reject this line insisting that Cyprus should be reunified in a federation.
The UN challenged Ankara's policy this week by submitting a 150-page settlement plan to Greek and Turkish Cypriots. The document is being studied in Athens and Ankara.
Both sides have permission to enter negotiations regarding details, and are being pushed to outline a final settlement by 12 December, the date of the EU summit in Copenhagen. Little progress has been made during the nine months of intensive talks because of the Turkish refusal to budge from official policy.
The plan is known to provide for two largely autonomous regions linked by a central government responsible for foreign and EU affairs. The Turkish occupied zone is also expected to be reduced from 37 per cent to 28-29 per cent.
A multinational force will provide security and oversee implementation of the settlement plan while the island is gradually demilitarised. The 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, allowing for the intervention of Greece, Turkey and the UK in the event of unrest, will be retained. Both Athens and Ankara will be permitted to station troops on the island which will be called into operation only if the multinational force fails to provide security. The government is to be based on either Belgian or Swiss models, with the two communities assuming central executive power on a rotational basis.
Failure to reach an agreement will result in the UN providing a "take it or leave it" solution with a fixed deadline for a response. The UN wants to finalise the settlement by 28 February.
The plan, to which the United States and the United Kingdom have made major contributions, has raised suspicions on both sides. The Greek side fears that both the US and UK, who would depend on an alliance with Turkey in the event of war with Iraq, are too biased in favour of Ankara, while the Turkish side believes that it will be compelled to relinquish its demand for two equal sovereign states.
The issue of planted Turkish settlers, which occurred over the past 28 years, remains one of the most sensitive. Jaako Laasko, Finland's special rapporteur of the Council of Europe, warned that the influx of 110,000 mainland Turkish settlers has placed the Turkish Cypriots in the minority. "I have come to the conclusion that there has been a dramatic demographic change," he said during a visit to the island.
Turkish Cypriot opposition parties say their community, once 130,000-strong at the time of Turkey's invasion, has been reduced to less than half this number. A group comprising 85 Turkish Cypriot opposition parties, trade unions and professional associations have been staging protests at the north's changing demography and the presence of 35,000-40,000 Turkish soldiers located in more than a score of strategic military bases. Laasko said that the "question of the settlers is essential and should be [dealt with by] the UN plan."

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