Al-Ahram Weekly | International

		14 - 20 November 2002 Issue No. 612 International	Current issue Previous issue Site map
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875		Recommend this page

Upbeat in Brazil
Lula's election brings hope to Brazilians as well as many of their neighbours. Hisham El-Naggar writes from Rio de Janeiro

Rio de Janeiro: a tropical paradise with sandy beaches, a hedonistic population and colonial Portuguese architecture mixed with 1950s buildings.
The date is not coincidental; the 1960s saw the transfer of the national capital from this noisy metropolis to the purpose-built capital of Brasilia. Rio, as this resort town is known to the locals as well as every Carmen Miranda fan who never even set foot there, slowly began to decrease in significance, becoming eclipsed politically by Brasilia, and economically by booming Sao Paulo.
There is still much to attract the tourist to Rio, for instance bikini-clad beachcombers sipping coconut milk on the endless waterfront, a downtown area which is a combination of historic monuments and creative kitsch, but mostly, a festive air which seems permanently on the verge of erupting into a samba. The Paulistas of Sao Paulo may have a point when they accuse the Cariocas (the inhabitants of this city) of having less than their fair share of the work ethic passed on by immigrants, but then, this is precisely the charm with which Rio attracts its sun-starved visitors.
The suburban beach area of Ipanema is a mixture of Miami, Beirut and Deauville. I arrived barely three days after Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's spectacular triumph at the polls, and had no difficulty recognising signs of feverish campaigning and lavish celebrations. Even in this middle-class neighbourhood, the president-elect beams from a host of billboards, congratulating Brazilians for defying fear and voting for hope.
The emphasis is on hope. This is an irrepressibly optimistic country, a characteristic which may be contagious. Who cares if the odds are stacked in favour of a probable default in the coming months, no matter if a stubborn recession has virtually institutionalised stagnation or if officials in the United States Department of the Treasury agree that helping Brazil is akin to throwing away good money.
None of this appears to have depressed the cheerful Cariocas as they nurse their king-sized tropical juices and work on that tan. "Um presidente do povo", a taxi driver jubilantly described Lula as a "president of the people". Lula's humble origins -- he was a worker and has no university degree -- is a source of pride for many of those who elected him. While in the rest of the world, both developed and developing, many place great emphasis on leaders with academic credentials even though their discourse may alienate them from the electorate, Brazil has shown that a Harvard degree is not a must. Being close to people from all classes and sharing their aspirations is far more important.
Lula's reputation and support is also improved by the fact that he is a union leader. The Labour Party from which Lula hails has a strong union base, not unlike that once claimed by its British counterpart. And if the latter has drifted far from its working class origins, Brazil's homegrown variety is still very close to its vibrant proletarian base.
This fact increased Lula's chances of being elected. Being the candidate of hope has made him something of a symbol. He is not only a challenge to the prevailing mould, but also living proof that there is still hope for peaceful, orderly evolution toward a more just society.
This sentiment means a lot to a population which has gone through eight years of relentless globalisation coupled with privatisation, deteriorating public services and increasing unemployment.
"He understands what the people want, because he is, you know, one of us," mused a smiling Carioca beauty who answered my queries as she served me a luscious mango juice. "Mind you, he's not about to do anything crazy," said a professional whom I met over cappuccino at the gorgeous historic Colombo Café. "For all the rhetoric, he knows how to listen to people connected with the powers that be."
That he does indeed. He was finally elected -- after three unsuccessful attempts -- by projecting an image of moderation reinforced by his choice of a centre-right vice-president, who is active in business circles. Lula is still playing his cards close to his chest. He has named a transition team of technocrats, but no word yet of his definite choice for key cabinet posts.
The length of the honeymoon period after he assumes office in January is anyone's guess, but we are probably talking weeks rather than months. After all, he will be inheriting a country with a weak economy, sceptical creditors and a devalued currency. The flight of capital, which has undermined the value of the currency against the dollar, means Rio is a cheap destination for North American and European visitors.
Compared to Buenos Aires, where I live, Rio is quite expensive, the reason being that the Argentine peso has fallen far more steeply than the Brazilian real. Considering that Argentina is Brazil's main partner in the Mercosur (an economic grouping comprising Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Brazil) we need to ask if differences in the costs of living and production can be sustained indefinitely. Will the Brazilian real follow in the footsteps of the Argentine peso; will Argentina export its recession to its neighbour?
A third scenario is also possible. The regions may be boosted and both countries may recover as Brazil gains strength and negotiates a restructuring of its debts -- a more positive term than "default". There is no doubt that in a depressed Mercosur, Brazil is the key to the future.
Brazilians are probably unaware of Argentinean hopes for a Brazilian recovery. This is, after all, an immensely self-conscious country, both its distinct language -- Portuguese -- and size has made it inward-looking.
Not that Brazil is the least bit xenophobic. This particular First World malaise is thankfully much less conspicuous here. Despite trade -- and soccer -- rivalries between Latin American countries, there is a strong feeling that regional integration is the brightest hope for the future. Lula himself has made clear that he is wholly committed to the Mercosur as a first step towards this goal. He will visit Argentina next week in an attempt to lay the foundations for mutual support between the two largest Mercosur economies. Commentators from across the board in Argentina have welcomed his election as being "good" for their country.
This may not go down well with a particular extra-regional power which is openly trying to entice Brazil's neighbours to a rival constellation, namely the Free Trade Area for the Americas. The United States has never really played down its predisposition towards Lula's defeated rival, José Serra. But since Lula has won with an overwhelming margin, it could make sense to give him the benefit of the doubt. For now.

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