Europe moves east and south
Europe's eastward expansion unleashes a torrent of challenges, not excepting the Cypriot conundrum, writes Michael Jansen
Friday the 13, December 2002 was a lucky day for the European Union. The bloc expanded dramatically and on schedule, enabling the leaders of the 15 member states to drink champagne with the presidents and prime ministers of the 10 new entrants at the end of the day.
Taking one giant leap eastward Europe expects to gain 75 million new citizens, boosting the population of the Union to 450 million and making it the largest common administrative and free-trade area on the face of the globe. However, before this can happen the citizens of the approved countries -- Cyprus, Malta, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia -- must vote for accession in separate referenda to be held next March. Formal invitations to those who choose Europe will be issued in April.
On the eve of the summit there were dire predictions that squabbles would force Europe's leaders to extend their meeting for a day or two. But they dealt with the three most contentious issues systematically and with dispatch.
The first was Turkey's demand for an early date to commence accession talks. In a marathon session on Thursday night, the summit decided on the date: December 2004, a compromise between sometime in 2003, favoured by Ankara and its allies, and mid-2005, suggested by France and Germany. The Turks were both angry and disappointed. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul initially charged that the EU "is prejudiced" against Turkey, implying that the Christian bloc did not want to admit a Muslim state. However, the Turks soon calmed down and pledged to implement a wide range of reforms so they could meet the preaccession requirement of establishing "institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for the protection of minorities". So far, Turkey has adopted legislation abolishing the death penalty and providing for limited Kurdish cultural expression.
These measures do not come anywhere near meeting the EU package of requirements. The Turks and their sponsors, the US and the UK, which alienated continental countries by aggressive lobbying, were pulled up short by the realisation that Ankara had a great deal to do to meet the stiff criteria applied to the 10 new members. Europe made it clear that Turkey would not be subjected to discrimination, negative or positive.
Turkey put a positive spin on the conditional invitation, the first time Ankara has been given a time frame, and dropped objections to cooperation between the EU's 60,000-strong rapid reaction force and NATO, enabling this force to use alliance assets and participate in peace- keeping operations.
The second issue was Cyprus' entry. While not making the reunification of the island -- divided since Turkey occupied the north in 1974 -- a condition for admission, the EU had expressed a preference for the accession of a united rather than divided Cyprus. Ahead of the summit, the EU drafted two invitations to the island, one for each possibility, and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan produced a reunification plan which he hoped would be approved by the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders so the whole of Cyprus could join with the rest on 1 May 2004. The president of the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot majority republic, Glafkos Clerides, was, reluctantly, prepared to accept Annan's framework but Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash was not.
While Annan proposed the creation of a bizonal, bicommunal federation of two cantons linked by a common administration with a rotating presidency, Denktash continued to insist on recognition of his breakaway state in the north and a "two-state" solution. Using the pretext of poor health following heart surgery in early October, Denktash has been in and out of hospital, arguing that he cannot make any major decisions at present. Before entering an Ankara hospital on the eve of the summit, he stated, "We have not reached the point of signing a document. We want negotiations. We want the EU leaders to act with reason. We want them to realise that they are killing the chances of an agreement when they [try to] impose a solution on us." He said that if the EU wanted to admit a united Cyprus, it must give the two sides a chance to reach an accommodation. But if the EU accepts the republic, it "must negotiate with us separately about our membership" and extend economic assistance so that the Turkish Cypriots can join along with Turkey. Denktash implied that he would never agree to reunification. "I have told all concerned officials that forced marriages never work. The two peoples must not be forced together once again."
In spite of his negative attitude, UN, US and EU mediators attempted to secure a deal at Copenhagen. But by mid-afternoon on Friday, it was clear that this would not happen. The invitation was, therefore, issued to the republic. The Greek and Turkish Cypriots were asked to "continue negotiating with the objective of concluding a comprehensive settlement... by 28 February 2003 on the basis of the UNSG's proposals." The summit's communiqué stated, "The European Council believes that there is a unique opportunity to reach a settlement in the coming weeks and urges the leaders of the Greek and Turkish Cypriot communities to seize this opportunity."
Once it was clear that the Turkish Cypriots had been left out, thousands who disagree with Denktash marched through the streets of the northern sector of the world's last divided capital calling for his resignation. Carrying the blue flag of Europe, the protesters chanted, "We're not Turkish, We're not Greek. We're just Cypriots." They demanded the withdrawal of Turkey's 35,000- 40,000 troops, reunification and EU membership and accused Denktash's "separatist leadership" of propelling "our community to the brink of extinction".
Since Turkey occupied the northern 37 per cent of the island, one-third to half of the Turkish Cypriots have emigrated while 110,000 mainland Turkish settlers have swamped those who stayed. Mehmet Ali Talat, the leader of the opposition Republican Turkish Party who took part in the protest, stated, "Cyprus's accession to the EU without Turkish Cypriots would make Turkey's EU prospects difficult." He said there was a rift between Denktash and the new Turkish government in Ankara which wants a solution to the Cyprus problem "as it is a major obstacle to Turkey's own candidacy".
In an effort to encourage Denktash and Ankara to negotiate seriously on the basis of the Annan plan, the republic announced its intention of allowing the free movement of goods across the Green Line which divides the underdeveloped north from the prosperous south and to institute measures would enable the Turkish Cypriots to enjoy the rights and benefits of EU membership.
Annan and his team said they would step up their efforts to reach a settlement by the target date. The problem seems to be that Denktash -- and his allies in Turkey's politico-military establishment, not the new moderate Islamist government -- fail to see that Europe is based on ethnic coexistence and cooperation, not ethnic separatism and exclusivism. Furthermore, Turkey cannot expect to join if it occupies the territory of a member.
The issue which almost forced the summit into a third day was economic. Poland, backed by other East European states, demanded increased subsidies for the new entrants. After a day of haggling Poland, which led the campaign, accepted a package worth euros 40.8 billion for 2004-2006. Warsaw argued that if the contributions of the new members were added up they would amount to no more than euros 12 billion, a fraction of the sum allocated to old members in agricultural and other subsidies. Poland argued that lower funding for the poorer entrants would reinforce the wide per capita income gap between the two groups. The new members secured an extra euros 433 million rather than the euros 2 billion they had demanded, with most going to Poland, their champion. Agreement on this issue produced the opportunity to reunify Europe, which had been divided from the end of World War II in 1945 until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. The rallying cry of the summit was: No more European wars.
The task now facing the new European leaders is to sell Europe to their own people. While support for EU membership is running at 70 per cent in Cyprus, only 47 per cent of Maltese back accession while the citizens of other candidate states are almost equally divided between "yes" and "no". Rejection in March would be a heavy blow after the euphoria of December.
