A bloody new year

Christmas festivities are in danger of being drowned out by the banging of war drums with the new year promising, if anything, even more belligerent tunes. Oil prices are skyrocketing, and threaten to climb even higher with all the talk of war. Financiers are beginning to count the cost of another major Gulf conflict. The American economy sinks deeper into recession, dragging the global economy with it. Not a very bright start to the new year and a grim close to the old one.

Bali and Mombassa notwithstanding, 2002 could have been worse. Another major terrorist attack on the US mainland would have spelt disaster for the economic outlook of 2003.

The United States requests the use of military sites and additional troops from its allies ahead of a possible conflict with Iraq. Washington's NATO allies look for a new post-Cold War role to play. Most caution the US against the war. Germany, France and other European powers urge restraint. Germans at the polls, the French in the Security Council, express strong disapproval of US policies towards Iraq. Yet however much Washington's European partners express their disquiet over current US foreign policy they meet with a deaf ear.

Washington has grown all too comfortable with the unequal partnerships it has with countries around the world. Most of the US's global partners remain uncritical of President George W Bush's threats to disarm Iraq and replace Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

Arab friends of the US also urge restraint. Arab governments are solidly behind the US-led international campaign against terrorism, but they differentiate between the war on terror and any strike against Iraq. For Arabs, the sufferings of the Iraqi people have gone on far too long. Likewise, the war against terror must not be used against the Palestinian people and their fight for statehood and national self- determination. Unless these injustices are properly addressed, the prospect for 2003 in the Arab world will look unpromising.