Peace in Sudan?
Is Sudan about to see the light at the end of the tunnel? Perhaps, answers Dina Ezzat
The year 2003 could bring hope and stability to Sudan. Indeed, the civil war that has wrecked Sudan's society and economy for some two decades may end sooner rather than later. And developmental projects which have failed to meet the needs of the Sudanese people, particularly in the south, may be on the cards.
In Cairo this week Sudanese Foreign Minister Moustafa Othman Ismail said he thought a peace deal could be reached between the Sudanese government and its opposition by mid 2003.
According to Ismail and some representatives of the Sudanese opposition, the Sudanese peace process -- the outcome of which was the signing of the Mashakos protocols a few months ago -- could well produce a comprehensive settlement. Arab diplomatic and Sudanese government sources are also of the opinion that once a deal has been signed between Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and John Garang of the southern Sudanese opposition group South Popular Liberation Army/ Movement (SPLA/M), the road to peace may well be trod.
"Garang is the most problematic aspect of the Sudanese opposition because he talks about sharing wealth and power between north and south on the one hand, and the division of Sudan into two separate entities as the alternative," commented one Arab diplomatic source. "The government and the SPLA/ M have been through a good deal of negotiations today, and the remaining points are bound to be negotiated too."
This week also saw the renewal of the cease-fire between the Sudanese government and the SPLA/M for a period of six months. A Sudanese official commented that this is the amount of time the government thinks it will take to reach a settlement with the southern opposition.
Representatives of the Sudanese government and the SPLA/ M are currently meeting in Washington for negotiations which are sponsored by the Americans. Sudanese officials admit that the negotiations are being conducted against the backdrop of a congressional act approved by United States President George W Bush to impose economic sanctions on the Sudanese government if no peace settlement is reached. The negotiations are taking place at a time when SPLA/M is moving towards separatist measures, which includes effort to adopt an independent currency and monetary system.
"We know full well that the Americans are offering much support to the southern rebels. We cannot turn a blind eye to the separatist moves that are being taken and we have to do everything in our power to keep Sudan united," said a senior Sudanese official who asked that his name be withheld.
This means a compromise regarding power and wealth sharing will have to be reached. "We have to be realistic. We cannot fight the US," he added.
Sudanese officials argue that because the Mashakos protocols stipulate that a referendum on the unity of north and south Sudan must be conducted within six years after peace has been reached, the best option for the government now is to seek as fair a deal as possible, and then work on fulfilling the Mashakos requirements, i.e. to make "the choice of unity attractive" for all Sudanese, both north and south.
Sudanese officials and Arabs diplomats also believe that, in order to avoid being left out of the deal, the remaining opposition movements would be more willing to make a deal with the government once a deal has been struck between the Khartoum regime and the Garang movement.
This strategy is enjoying increased Arab support. Late last week, the Arab League hosted a round table meeting aimed at securing Arab financial support for developmental projects in the south of Sudan. Attending the meeting were representatives of Arab states and Arab investment and monetary funds. The meeting was attended by high-profile diplomats including Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ismail, Nadia Ebeid who is the new Arab League envoy to Sudan, as well as Sudanese government officials in charge of the affairs of south Sudan.
Presented to the meeting was a multi-million dollar package to finance developmental projects in the south of Sudan, which include building new roads, electricity grids, schools and hospitals. The proposed projects are now being carefully examined by interested Arab states as well as investment and monetary funds. Funds for the realisation of the projects are expected to be allocated next year. "I think that this meeting is one of the best ways of serving the objectives of peace, development and unity for Sudan," commented Ali Fattak, representative of the south Sudan states, at the meeting. He added that the main barrier between the north and south is that of development. While it is true that Sudan in general is an underdeveloped country, the south of Sudan is particularly poor and unprivileged.
The Sudanese foreign minister agreed. He said if the promises in the meeting were fulfilled, this would result in unprecedented support from the Arab side to achieve peace and development in Sudan. According to Ismail, the Sudanese government has declared 2003 the year of south Sudan. "This means that the government has already initiated work on a number of developmental projects for the South. Were money to be made available to finance more projects, then the chances of achieving peace and preserving unity would be much higher," he added.
It is in the interest of Arab states to maintain the unity of Sudan since the division of the country would mean that a non- Arab country holding a possible grudge against Arab nations would be created in the southern backyard of the Arabian world.
This is why the Arab League Fund for the Development of South Sudan -- which has remained empty up to now -- may well be injected with substantial funds to speed up the southern Sudanese development project.
During the Arab League meeting last week in Cairo, the Arab League secretary-general proposed that this fund should be afforded increased importance by turning it into an Arab Organisation for the Development of South Sudan. This suggestion will be debated and possibly adopted in the coming few weeks.
This approach, however, is not particularly satisfactory to the Sudanese opposition. After the Arab League meeting, Garang called Moussa to thank him for his efforts and also to emphasise the fact that the Khartoum government is unable to make a decision on behalf of south Sudan regarding the development projects which are required in that part of the country. Ebeid is planning to hold a series of meeting to address this issue, which will be attended by representatives of Garang. A Garang spokesman has already expressed satisfaction with the choice of Ebeid.
In fact, Ebeid is planning to hold a meeting in Khartoum in early January with Sudanese President Bashir and some of the North opposition groups that are now based in Sudan. Ebeid's mission will coincide with the resumption of the Mashakos process in Nairobi on 6 January.
"We are planning to accommodate the views of all parties. We have to do everything we can to bring peace back to Sudan, which includes development projects which will make the prospect of unity attractive," commented the Arab League Secretary-General Moussa. Moussa is planning a meeting in February between representatives of the Arab countries and the Arab funds for investment and finance to speed up the allocation process for the proposed developmental projects. Meanwhile, the Arab League secretary-general and a group of Arab foreign ministers will be in Khartoum mid-January for talks with the Sudanese government on peace and prosperity in Sudan.
