The countdown is on

Yesterday was the beginning of the countdown to 27 January -- the day on which chief UN arms inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed El-Baradei are expected to present the UN Security Council with their report on the state of Iraqi armament -- or, for that matter, disarmament. A positive report from Blix and El-Baradei will make the chances for a UN-sanctioned war against Iraq less likely than if the two chief inspectors reiterate their initial assessment, which they declared in the second week of December, arguing that Iraq's declaration on its arms left much to be desired.

So far Iraq has been co-operating well with the UN. What Iraqi top officials have to do today is to continue their policy of denying the US any pretext to launch a UN-approved military attack against their country and people. Iraq's ability to desist from rising to the bait of US provocation will also be decisive. International, and even American, public opinion has been vital in underlining that the US has no right to strike Iraq in view of its co-operation with the UN. The more resolve Iraq shows in sticking to this positive line, on all issues including co-operation in relation to inspectors' interviews with prominent Iraqi scientists, the more official and non-official support it is likely to obtain in the face of the willingness by figures like Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice to spill Iraqi blood in exchange for oil.

Many informed top officials and diplomats argue that it will be very difficult for the US to go it alone against Iraq in view of evident American and international opposition to this approach. So, to deny the US the pretext it needs to obtain a Security Council resolution authorising the use of military force against Iraq will significantly reduce the chances of war.

Many people in this part of the world are convinced that war is inevitable. Others argue that it is 70 per cent to 30 per cent proposition, while the most optimistic put the odds at 50-50. Iraq, however, should not lose heart owing to such speculation; when all is said and done, there might still be a chance for the force of international -- including American -- public opinion to win the war against the hawks of the American administration and spare hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi people from American military might.