What recession?
Prime Minister Atef Ebeid's policy statement, delivered to parliament on Sunday, was as upbeat as its forerunners, though electoral reform was conspicuous by its absence. Gamal Essam El-Din reports
Ever since his appointment in October 1999, the annual policy statement delivered by Prime Minister Atef Ebeid to parliament has been a source of controversy -- primarily because of the far-reaching and seemingly endless lists of political and socio- economic development targets the speech always sets out. Ebeid's fourth and latest statement -- delivered to parliament on 29 December -- was no exception.
Last year, according to Ebeid, his government was able to fulfil 37 of the targets it set for itself. Critics would argue that 37 out of a total of at least 100 set forth in last year's statement is actually nothing to boast about. Mindful of this sort of criticism, Ebeid's statement attempted to pre-empt the sceptics. Emboldened by organised support from deputies of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Ebeid said, "This statement is a response to all the sceptics who are -- deplorably -- fond of defaming their country's image. The criticism launched by these sceptics is actually an attack against the nation itself and its millions of honourable citizens."
Ebeid said he did not have "a magic wand" which could help solve all the country's problems. The prime minister, however, was keen to stress that this year's statement is unique "in the sense that it adopts the NDP's newly-formed platform. It is a great honour for my government to turn the reforms and policy changes introduced at the NDP's eighth congress into realities on the ground." Ebeid said his government's one-year record of political achievements included reinforcing the rule of the law, in the form of fighting high-level corruption, broadening the scope of freedom of speech in state- owned media, and bringing forward an ambitious list of 14 draft laws.
Political observers, however, noted that this list did not actually include a long-awaited bill -- the one dealing with electoral reform -- despite the fact that President Hosni Mubarak had previously emphasised that it should top the government's legislative agenda. Moreover, electoral reform was hotly debated by the Shura Council, parliament's consultative upper house, last week. The council's independent and opposition members, debating a report on a speech delivered by Mubarak at the opening of the new parliamentary session on 16 November, had warned of the dangers of Ebeid's statement not including this vital bill.
"If the statement does not include a detailed programme on political reform, it will mean that the NDP still insists on monopolising power and refusing to adopt any concrete steps towards turning this country into a real democracy," said Mohamed Sarhan, the Shura Council's sole representative from the liberal-oriented Wafd Party. Abul-Ezz El- Hariri, an outspoken leftist member of parliament, told Al-Ahram Weekly that Ebeid's failure to speak of any political reform must not come as a surprise. "This is because the NDP's 'New Way of Thinking'", he said, "is very vague about political reform. It does not offer Egyptians any hope for democratisation in the near future."
Two weeks ago, NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif had said that "the NDP has no interest in monopolising power" and that "the NDP is not keen on keeping power in its hands, but will remain in power as long as the party receives unwavering support from the Egyptian people." Kamal El-Shazli, NDP's parliamentary whip, also told the Shura Council that "democratising Egypt is inevitable, but not before opposition parties move towards democratising their internal structures and ranks in the same way the NDP did during its last congress."
Ebeid's statement was mostly devoted to socio- economic issues. It was in these realms that the prime minister boasted of the 37 fulfilled targets. Economic pundits, however, were quick to cast doubt on the alleged achievements, saying the figures presented by the prime minister were unreliable, and painted a falsely rosy picture of the faltering national economy.
In 2002, Ebeid said, his government was able to raise growth rates to 4.5 per cent, bring the budget deficit down to 4.2 per cent of GDP, attract a whopping $2.7 billion in direct foreign investments, and cut foreign exchange losses from an anticipated $2.5 billion to a mere $9 million. Ebeid said the government had managed to "not only [improve the country's] ability to counter external shocks, but had placed the nation back on the economic recovery track as well". Ebeid said development targets had been, in fact, been surpassed, with the successful execution of mega-development projects, the building of four new ports, 20 industrial communities and the establishment of 22 environmental conservation zones.
Ebeid described critics who said his government had failed to get the economy out of its 5-year recession as "boring... They have to stop talking about recession all the time, because this kind of talk has become boring. They refuse to see that the size of investments is going up month by month... and that many businesses are now achieving higher rates of profitability." This, Ebeid said, reveals that Egypt is well on the way to achieving a five per cent growth rate in 2003.
At a symposium organised by the Press Syndicate on 26 December (just three days before Ebeid's statement), Mustafa El-Said, a former economy minister and frequent Ebeid critic, argued that the danger was not in a national economy suffering from recession, but "for the government to refuse to acknowledge recession and address it". El-Said said economic statistics provided by the government are both contradictory and unreliable. El-Said said in economic terms, 2002 was the worst. He even went so far to suggest that Egypt is in a desperate need for a new prime minister with a "stronger personality."
Ebeid said the government's most ambitious target over the next 15 years is to integrate Egypt into the European Union (EU) market. "This integration is [the key] to modernising Egypt. It is a challenge we are determined to live up to so that the Egyptian standard of living is closer to that of Europe."
Amongst the other major objectives spelled out by Ebeid: a landmark programme aimed at turning 4,580 villages into productive communities; and a plan to raise the incomes of all Egyptian families to unprecedented levels over the next five years. The latter, said the prime minister, was the "NDP's gift to the Egyptian people for the 21st century". This programme is set to cost some LE25 billion over five years, and will allocate LE1 million for every village, to be used for the establishment of various income-generating projects.
As for the job market, Ebeid claimed that in 2002 his government was able to find work for half a million new graduates. "That's why we are aiming to generate an additional 500,000 jobs in 2003," he said. The prime minister said complete lists featuring the names of these newly employed young people were available for MPs to peruse so they could see that his government has always been serious about honouring its promises.
