Play it again Sam
For the time being, North Korea remains unafraid of US sabre rattling, writes Faiza Rady
While United States President George W Bush was taking a well-earned New Year's break from the toil and turmoil of his self-styled "war against terror", the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has kept itself busy revamping its mothballed nuclear plants. Following close on the heels of Iraq's alignment on Bush's "axis of evil", the DPRK has, off late, consistently defied Washington -- stubbornly refusing to fall into line.
This, even though Washington had previously threatened Pyongyang to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction, or else suffer the same fate as, currently besieged and hapless, Iraq.
These threats were recently added to by aggressive statements from the US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Lest there be any lingering doubt about the Bush administration's intentions, Rumsfeld made no bones about America's capacity to fight a war on two fronts. "We are capable of winning decisively on one [front], and swiftly defeating in the case of the other," he declared last week.
Seemingly unfazed by these sinister statements, the intrepid Stalinists in Pyongyang remained steadfast. Alternatively dubbed "reclusive" or "elusive" by the Western media, DPRK leader Kim Jong-Il announced his government will expel the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that had set up shop to monitor the Yonbyon nuclear complex, 55 miles north of Pyongyang. Yonbyon has the capacity to produce plutonium, used in the production of nuclear weapons. Although the IAEA indignantly protested their expulsion, claiming that "North Korea was in defiance of international obligations," Kim duly ignored them -- instead, pressing ahead with the transport of hundreds of fuel rods to Yonbyon. Observers estimate that the complex will be operational in a few months time.
Maybe Kim and his Stalinist colleagues are simply out of touch with reality. They do not seem yet to have grasped the fact that in the new unipolar world order only close US allies, like India and Pakistan, or US protectorates, like Israel, are allowed to maintain nuclear capabilities. As for "rogue" states, in particular those that are a part of the infamous "axis of evil", nuclear technology -- whether for deterrence or other purposes -- has definitely been ruled out.
The Bush administration is divided on the vexing issue of North Korea -- notwithstanding Rumsfeld's recent sabre rattling and supportive editorials.
For one, the timing is just not right. Quite simply, the US army is overextended, with 250,000 troops being shipped to the Gulf in preparation for the invasion of Iraq, in addition to the estimated 100,000-150,000 already stationed in the region. Retired Rear-Admiral Jeremy Taylor, a former military pilot and carrier commander, called on Rumsfeld to be realistic. "We have a [two-war] strategy that is totally out of whack with the size of the force we have," said Taylor. "For Rumsfeld to say we can handle two regional conflicts is ludicrous to the point where the rascals of the world, our adversaries, don't believe us. We have lost our ability to deter war."
Do "the rascals of the world" threaten the US? With his country ravaged and bombed out during "Operation Desert Storm", Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has quite evidently withdrawn from the field. Hussein has, in fact, bent over backwards to satisfy US demands -- however extravagant -- ever since the Bush administration started beating the drums of war. Complying with each and every US inspection requirement, the Iraqi regime is currently allowing UN inspectors to investigate every nook and cranny of the country's vast hinterlands. Regardless, the US president is biding his time. By all accounts, a war is just around the corner.
If this "Iraqi rascal" has been subdued, what about Pyongyang? Chairman of the Senate Committee, Patrick Leahy, recently described Kim Jong-Il as, "a far greater threat to US security than Hussein".
Judging from appearances, Kim has not yet learned to jump when the Bush administration rattles its sabre. But Kim can afford to be intrepid, he has protection. China is just a stone's throw away. Other neighbours, although US allies, are also upset about the Bush administration's warmongering in the region. Both Japan and South Korea responded coolly to US demands for pressure on the DPRK to suspend its nuclear programme. Instead, advising the Bush administration to respond to Pyongyang's demands for a dialogue. The Bush administration chose to dismiss this offer. In turn, the DPRK's Central News Agency accused the US of, "using the nuclear issue to destroy the economy of the DPRK and stifle its socialism".
The DPRK leadership believes it does not have too much cause for worry. Unlike Iraq, North Korea does not sit on 10 per cent of the world's oil reserves. In fact, North Korea has no oil at all. An impoverished, isolated, pre-Perestroika-style, socialist country, the DPRK is once again threatened with famine. As if this were not enough, in December the US literally cut off the country's life-line, its oil supply. In fact, oil is used for food production -- a vital industry in a country with three million people at risk of starvation.
By halting oil shipments to the North, the US violated an October 1994 agreement with North Korea, which guarantees the country's oil supply. In terms of treaty violations between the two countries, this is not the first. Although the 1994 agreement also stipulated that the US would partially lift trade sanctions in exchange for a North Korean nuclear programme freeze, the Americans have failed to deliver. Since the signing of the accord, Washington has permitted a sole company -- the giant cereal manufacturer, Cargill -- to negotiate business deals with the DPRK. As in the case of other "rogue" countries like Cuba and Iraq, the threat of the US boycott has meant international economic isolation (since Washington threatens other countries with sanctions should they dare break the embargo).
Since 1994, an estimated two million North Koreans have died from the consequences of starvation. Regardless, in Newspeak the DPRK remains a "dangerous threat to US security".
