After Mombassa
Al-Qa'eda's recent attacks in Kenya appear set to propel the organisation into a head on confrontation with Israel, Diaa Rashwan* argues
The attacks in Mombassa, Kenya against Israeli targets may prove to be a turning point for Al-Qa'eda. As the United States continues its so-called war against terror, the Islamist network lead by Osama Bin Laden is undergoing a transformation in terms of focus and tactics. Understanding this metamorphosis requires a closer look at the various levels at which Al-Qa'eda operates.
First, there is the organisation itself. Strictly speaking, Al-Qa'eda should be referred to as Qa'edat Al-Jihad (the base for Jihad). This is the name the group assumed in April 2002, apparently as a result of the merger of the overseas branch of Egypt's Al-Jihad group, led by Ayman El-Zawahri, with the groups Bin Laden brought under his control after his return to Afghanistan in the mid 1990s. This coalescence was preceded by a grouping that brought together the two sides and other Islamist groups from Pakistan and Bangladesh. The coalition, declared on February 1998, was called the Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders. It was this group that is thought to have mounted the bombing attacks against the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998.
There are signs that Qa'edat Al-Jihad -- like its precursor, the front -- has developed sophisticated organisational traits; it has its own doctrines, a hierarchical structure, formal internal procedures and tactical capabilities. Qa'edat Al-Jihad is thought to have recruits from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Arab peninsula, and East Africa.
The extensive network of groups and individuals affiliated with the militant cause of Jihad is sometimes mistakenly identified as Qa'edat Al-Jihad -- an error that is easily made. Because Washington's ill-defined war against terror seems so far to be directed against Islam and the Muslim world, and because of Israel's continued repression of the Palestinians, many of these groups and individuals have become more openly hostile to US and Israeli policies. As a result, a section of them, while not directly associated with Qa'edat Al-Jihad, have begun taking independent retaliatory action against US and Israeli interests around the world. The operations carried out by these groups and individuals against US, Israeli, and Western targets often fit with Qa'edat Al- Jihad's rhetoric. This prompted the latter to claim responsibility for some of the actions, albeit in ambiguous terms. The United States, through guesswork more than substantive evidence, has expanded its definition of Al-Qa'eda to include such groups and individuals.
What makes the Mombassa operations so significant is the targets chosen. To most groups associated with Jihad, Israel has long been a key enemy. Other enemies, such as the Soviet Union and some local regimes, have come and gone. Even the United States has not always been at the top of the hit list. Since the beginning of the 1990s, Bin Laden's outfit had voiced hostility towards Israel and the United States in its numerous statements, however, the hostility remained largely rhetorical. The first attack launched by Al-Qa'eda against a Jewish target was the bombing of a synagogue in Djerba, Tunisia several months ago. According to available information, and despite claims made by Qa'edat Al- Jihad, the attackers are thought to have acted independently of Bin Laden's organisation.
The Mombassa operations changed that. Qa'edat Al-Jihad's claim of responsibility was fairly credible in the Mombassa case, because its announcement contained precise information that only the planners of the attack could have known. Kenya is an interesting choice for the attacks. Qa'edat Al- Jihad's forerunner, the Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders, had already mounted an attack against the US embassy there. The embassy was known to be a site through which Israeli intelligence conducted its work in Africa. The attacks were a signal by Qa'edat Al-Jihad to militant sympathisers to unleash similar attacks on Israeli interests elsewhere. Qa'edat Al-Jihad was consequently showing that its long-standing theoretical animosity to Israel goes beyond mere words. This is particularly important to the group with respect to establishing credibility in the Arab and Muslim worlds, where public opinion is incensed by Israel's actions against the Palestinians.
Qa'edat Al-Jihad seems to be trying to push Israel into open confrontation. So far, Israel has been engaged into covert action against the group, mostly in coordination with the United States. A more open confrontation with Israel could give Qa'edat Al- Jihad much-needed credibility, even popularity, in the Arab and Muslim worlds. Besides, it was only a matter of time before Israel's covert action against Qa'edat Al-Jihad provoked retaliation.
The Mombassa bombings are likely to change the face of the current confrontation. The attacks fulfilled a wish Israel has harboured since 11 September, namely, to be considered in the same boat with the United States in terms of fighting so-called terror. Consequently, one should now expect US- Israeli action against Islamic militants to become more overt, with the two states likely to begin waging joint military and security operations against areas in which Qa'edat Al-Jihad is thought to be active.
Israel will also probably use the attacks to divert international attention from its atrocities against the Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has long maintained that Israel is a state under constant threat from Islamist and Arab terror -- a line of argument that Israeli politicians favour as a means of deflecting attention from the horrors their troops daily perpetrate.
Employing a measure of contextual gimmickry, pro-Israeli media are using the attacks to discredit Palestinian and Lebanese Islamist resistance. Attempts of this type have been made over the past few days, and the Palestinian Authority was quick to point them out.
In a way, the Mombassa attacks have played right into Israel's hands. But this is not the entire story. Israel is heading for a prolonged confrontation with an enemy that is fierce, transcends national borders and is at least partially invisible. The more Israel represses the Palestinians, the bloodier the confrontation will become.
* The writer is a senior researcher at the Al- Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
