Showdown in Turkey
A clash between Turkey's JDP government and the Kemalist establishment seems inevitable, writes Michael Jansen
The stunning victory of the Justice and Development Party (JDP) in November's free and fair parliamentary poll exposes Turkey's democratic deficit at the very time Ankara is most eager to prove its credentials in this respect so as to promote its bid for European Union (EU) candidacy.
The JDP, which has Islamist roots, won 363 of the National Assembly's 550 seats and quickly established a one-party government led by Abdullah Gul, the party's deputy leader. Gul, a Western- educated moderate, promised to introduce a new constitution and bill of rights, revive the stagnant economy, put an end to human rights abuses, resolve the Cyprus problem and secure a date for Turkey to begin EU accession negotiations.
But as the government attempted to move forward on a number of fronts, it ran into a solid wall of opposition from the politico-military establishment which has dominated politics since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk established the modern Turkish state in 1923. In the assembly, the establishment is represented by the Kemalist Republican People's Party (RPP), headed by Deniz Baykal, the only other party to secure seats.
Furthermore, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, who has the power to veto legislation, has shown himself to be totally committed to Kemalist principles. Consequently, JDP rule has from the outset been characterised by a series of critical confrontations between the government and the Kemalist establishment.
While these confrontations have not produced a major clash of wills so far, this is almost inevitable because the struggle between the JDP and the Kemalist old guard epitomises the very nature of the Turkish state. The JDP is determined to achieve democracy unfettered by limitations imposed by Mustafa Kemal nearly 80 years ago. The first tenet of Kemalism is that Turkey is a secular state where the separation of religion and state is strictly observed. The second holds that all Turkey's citizens are ethnic Turks and the third makes the army the guarantor of the state.
The public appearance of JDP politicians' wives in headscarves sparked instant controversy due to the fact that headscarves have been off-limits in offices of the Republic of Turkey since state secularism was introduced. The wives of no fewer than 15 cabinet ministers don the headscarf as does Emine, the wife of the charismatic JDP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Sezer warned that wearing "the headscarf in the public sphere is impossible because it is unconstitutional". Although the Turkish public does not consider the headscarf an issue and favours lifting the ban at universities, secularists claim it "incites religious hatred".
Under pressure, the JDP has had to drop plans to end the ban. The party's defeat over the headscarf -- a red cape to the Kemalist bull -- throws into doubt JDP plans to draft a new constitution. The party can also expect to run into opposition when it submits its package of reforms to parliament. One of the key items is likely to be an easing of restrictions on the use of Kurdish language. Since this involves state recognition of the Kurds as a separate ethnic minority, the Kemalists, who continue to consider all citizens of Turkey "Turks", have always done their best to avoid granting the Kurds any communal rights. The Kemalists' fear that once the Kurds have secured special treatment, they will resume their struggle for an independent Kurdish state in south-eastern Turkey. While a great deal of hullabaloo has been made in the Turkish and Western press about Turkey's adoption of regulations opening the way for Kurdish television and radio broadcasts, the new rules stipulate that radio broadcasts cannot exceed 45 minutes a day or a total of four hours per week and television programmes are limited to 30 minutes a day or two hours a week. Speaking Kurdish was banned until 1991 while Kurdish language courses can be offered only by private institutions and are monitored by the Education Ministry.
Cyprus is another major issue causing consternation in Ankara. On assuming power, the JDP vowed to resolve the Cyprus issue in order to clear the obstacles in Turkey's path towards EU accession, which 70 per cent of Turks back. The JDP supports negotiations on the United Nations' plan for the reunification of the island and urged Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash -- who has strong ties with the Kemalist camp -- to accept the plan as the basis for talks with the aim of achieving a settlement by the end of February. Following EU acceptance of Cyprus' bid for EU entry in 2004, Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis warned that failure to solve the issue would lead to the Turkish armed forces being "considered an invader army" occupying the territory of an EU member state. Erdogan observed that his party supported a "fair and stable solution based on the facts present in Cyprus". RPP leader Baykal accused the JDP of "giving in to foreigners' [the EU, United States and UN] demands on Cyprus". Since it invaded and occupied the northern 37 per cent of the island in 1974, the Turkish military, with 35,000-40,000 troops stationed there, has considered the area its private realm and has played a major role in its governance, alienating the majority of Turkish Cypriots and blocking any political settlement. The protests over the JDP's attempt to move towards a resolution, show that the army is still not prepared to loosen its grip on northern Cyprus.
The US demand that Turkey should play a significant role in an invasion of Iraq has exacerbated tensions between a reluctant JDP, which reflects popular opposition to a new war, and the military, which has enjoyed a close connection with the US for half a century. On 20 December the government admitted that it had missed deadlines set by Washington for commitments on the use of air bases, the staging through Turkey of 90,000 US troops bound for an offensive in northern Iraq and the participation of 45,000-60,000 Turkish soldiers in any campaign. Prime Minister Gul argued that the impact on Turkey of such a war would be almost entirely negative. He stated, "There are many demands from the US government. Turkey is a democratic country. We have to convince our people, we have to convince the parliament. Whether we fully cooperate or do nothing, we are going to suffer." The military, which welcomed the US investment of $100 million in its bases, has so far expressed reticence but can be expected to swing behind the US when it comes to the crunch, in spite of the opposition of 80 per cent of Turks.
Finally, President Sezer's decision to veto constitutional changes which would pave the way for JDP leader Erdogan to stand for parliament and ultimately become prime minister, deepened the rift between the governing party and the people on one hand, and the Kemalists, on the other. Erdogan was banned from standing for parliament by a 1998 conviction on a trumped up charge of "inciting religious hatred" after he recited an Ottoman era poem at an election rally. Sezer argued that amendments could not be adopted to suit an individual. On 27 December parliament voted for a second time to adopt the amendment, permitting Erdogan to stand in a by-election on 9 February. If he wins, as is expected, he could take up the post of prime minister. Sezer could attempt to block this again by demanding a referendum to approve the amendment, but this is unlikely as analysts predict Erdogan could take 60-70 per cent of the vote.
Although a showdown between the JDP and the Kemalists may be avoided on this issue, it is seen as inevitable. If it comes before the US launches its war on Iraq, the showdown could hamper the campaign, particularly if the Turkish "street" backs the JDP.
