Uniting Cypriots with Europe
Hard-liners may threaten Cypriot reunification, reports Michael Jansen from Nicosia
Turkish generals and politicians of the old- guard have been shocked by developments in Cyprus. On 26 December, 30,000 Turkish Cypriots, took part in a massive rally demanding reunification with Greek Cyprus as envisaged by a UN federation plan. They also called for the resignation of their veteran leader, Rauf Denktash. Their demands have been repeatedly seconded by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP), which swept the old guard from parliament in the November election.
Erdogan, who is expected to become prime minister next month, said, "We cannot assess the [Cyprus] dispute with a logic going back 40 years." He added, "Why should it not be resolved by 28 February?" This is the deadline, set by the European Union (EU) and the UN, for acceptance of the plan. Erdogan warned, "If we cannot resolve the issue, [protests] will grow."
Denktash is blamed for blocking progress in negotiations on the UN plan. Implementation of the plan, which involves the establishment of a federation of two communal cantons connected by a weak central authority, would enable the Turkish Cypriots to join the EU in 2004, along with Greek Cyprus.
While critical of aspects of the plan, the Greek Cypriots have agreed it can be the basis for negotiations.
Denktash's declared objections were that the plan did not recognise his breakaway state in the north as sovereign, with the Turkish Cypriots obliged to cede territory, reducing their canton from 37 to 28.5 per cent of the island.
But the plan was never really the problem. Since the late 1950s, Denktash and the Turkish political and military establishments have promoted separatism and partition. Since 1974, when the Turkish army occupied the north, the slogan of Denktash and the hard-liners in Ankara has been to abide by the status quo.
In order to reinforce the status quo, Ankara settled approximately 100,000 mainland Turks in northern Cyprus to replace emigrating Turkish Cypriots, overwhelming the estimated 80,000 who remained.
This both angered and alienated Turkish Cypriots who established a protest movement and called for the withdrawal of Turkey's 35,000 troops and an end to Ankara's political role in the north. What the Turkish Cypriots want is self-determination in a bi- communal federation within the EU.
The mainland Turkish press has expressed support for Turkish Cypriot demands. The Turkish Daily News observed that Denktash, "is starting to see the bitter fact that the power of the people may be against him". The paper went on to castigate the hard-liners in Ankara: "They felt that they could replace the Turkish Cypriot people with mainland Turks and simply continue their dominance of the [breakaway state], forgetting that the island belongs to the Turkish Cypriots and only the Turkish Cypriots and that mainland Turks are not their landlords."
Since the 26 December rally, Turkey has bolstered its troop presence in Cyprus with special forces. Ankara has also begun to speak to Turkish Cypriot opposition leaders and to insist that Denktash consult them.
The rally has also boosted Greek Cypriot backing for the UN plan. Following a meeting last weekend with Denktash, a leading opposition spokesman, Mehmet Ali Talat, head of the Turkish Republican Party, said, "We see his resignation from the negotiator's post as a basic condition to ensure the talks result in success." Another politician, Hussein Angolemli, stated, "We asked him to quit as negotiator because he has fallen out with his people."
The latest polls indicate that 60 per cent of Turkish Cypriots want to join the EU, 73 per cent would like accession and reunification to take place at the same time, 60 per cent would not object to the return of territory to the Greek Cypriot administration and 92 per cent would vote yes in a referendum if both sides accept the UN plan. Meanwhile, Erdogan has stepped up the pressure on Denktash and the hard- liners in Ankara. "This issue has remained a problem over the last 40 years. We want these negotiations to continue, and we want this issue to be concluded."
When the UN-brokered talks resume on 13 January, negotiations may be complicated by the presidential election campaign in Greek Cyprus. It looked like a three-way race until 3 January, when President Glafkos Clerides, who has been conducting negotiations with the EU, declared his intention to stand for a third term. If re-elected, he has pledged to form a national unity government which would complete the negotiations and oversee Cyprus's entry into the EU in April 2004. However, Attorney General Alecos Markides, Clerides' main adviser in the talks, has declared his candidacy as an independent. This could split Clerides' right-wing Democratic Rally Party and open the way for the election of Tassos Papadopoulos of the centre-right Democratic Party. He is backed by the former communist Akel Party and takes a harder line on a settlement than Clerides, who will leave office on 28 February. This development increases pressure on the two sides to reach a deal by the deadline.
