Israel post-elections
What hope change? Little, if any, writes Ibrahim Nafie
On 28 January Israelis go to the polls to elect their 16th Knesset. Now that the law providing for the directelection of the prime minister has been rescinded, the elections will also determine the next prime minister, the post going to the leader of the party that wins the greatest number of the120 Knesset seats.
Historically, the premiership has been monopolised by Labour and Likud, the two largest political parties in Israel. Labourcame to power in the first Israeli elections in 1949 and retained power until 1977, when Likud outstripped Labour for thefirst time and its leader, Menachim Begin, became prime minister. Likud was voted back into power in 1981, after which began the gameof musical chairs between the two parties that has lasted till now.
The first direct election of the prime minister was in 1996. The amendment to the electoral law was promulgated to preventthe rotation of the post between Likud and Labour in the event of a coalition, as occurred in 1984 and 1988. It was intendedto allow the electorate to judge prime ministerial candidates independent of party lists and parliamentary considerations. Thefirst to vie under the new law were Labour's Shimon Peres and Likud's Binyamin Netanyahu, with the latter emerging victorious. In 1999 Labour leader Ehud Barak ousted Netanyahu; then, underthe last application of the law in 2001, Barak was bested by his rival, Likud leader Ariel Sharon.
In 2001 only prime ministerial elections were held, while the 15th Knesset, elected in 1999, remained unchanged. The termof this Knesset would have ended in November this year had not elections been brought forward. Now that Israel has revertedto a system whereby the Israeli president charges the leader of the victorious party with forming a government, this round will determine the prime ministerand the shape of the government to come. In other words, the personality factor, though still an important criterion in theelections, is likely to play second fiddle to party political considerations.
Israeli parties, from right to left, from ultra Zionist to mixed to purely Arab, are approaching in a domestic,regional and international climate fraught with tension. At home the Israeli electorate is preoccupied by economic recession and a growing sense of insecurity as the result of the unprecedented waveof suicide bombings inside Israel, themselves a response to the oppression and terror perpetrated by Israel's occupation forces. The strains inside and between the major political parties are also confusing Israeli voters, a situation aggravated by severalcorruption scandals. Allegations that Sharon accepted large sums from a South African to fund his 1999 electoral campaignand reports of graft and vote purchasing in the drawing up of the Likud electoral lists during the current campaign have done much toundermine public confidence in Sharon's political leadership.
The January elections are also taking place against a background of intense friction between Israel and the Arabs,including those governments with which it has signed peace agreements. Arabs, at the official and grassroots level, areangered and dismayed by the ongoing persecution of Palestinians, the destruction of hope in the peace process and Israel's advocacy of astrike against Iraq. As President Mubarak put it during his visit to Toshka last Sunday: "The situation is very bad, especially as the Arabs fear that Israel will exploit the Iraqi issue to implement certainpolicies, such as the transfer of Palestinians."
The president's pessimism is based on a close analysis of current developments in Israel and his experience indealing with successive Israeli governments. Accentuating his sense of foreboding is an international environment dominated by the so-called war against terror, and immanent war on Iraq.
Opinion polls in Israel clearly indicate the character of the government to come and the nature of its policies. The pollsconsistently place the Likud-led right ahead of Labour with most forecasting that the next government will be staunchlyconservative and led by Ariel Sharon. The recent corruption scandals surrounding Sharon and Likud have caused a glitch in theparty's ratings, though it is likely to be temporary.
Early polls gave Likud more than 40 seats in the Knesset and Labour 25. The two parties currently hold, respectively, 19and 25 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset. When news of the scandals broke, Likud plummeted to 27 seats and Labour climbedto 22. Soon after, however, Likud began to recuperate its former lead, with the latest survey, published last Monday, giving it 33seats while Labour slid back to between 19 and 20. If these polls are accurate, Likud will nearly double its Knessetrepresentation while Labour will lose several of its current seats.
Such figures must be viewed against wider ideological trends in Israel. The fortunes of the left, whether centre, asrepresented by Labour, or actual, as represented by the Meretz bloc, have declined sharply in the face of the risingtrajectory of ultra-right groupings. The crisis of the left extends across the board, indicating that not only will Labour and other left-wingparties make a relatively poor showing in the forthcoming elections, but they will fail to present a strong and cohesive opposition to a government.
Currently, the condition of the left-wing parties supports this prediction. While the right-wing parties generally appearunified behind Likud the left is torn by dissension, epitomised by the infighting that led to the exclusion of major wingsof the Labour Party from the electoral lists. That the former Labour leadership agreed to enter into a coalition with Likud clearlytriggered a sharp rift within Labour Party ranks, alienating a significant number of supporters. The result is that Labour is faced not so much with having to win over voters sitting on thefence but reattracting those one-time fence-sitters who have already defected to the right.
It also appears that Palestinians in Israel ó the Arabs of 1948 ó are in crisis. As Jewish opinion in Israel shifts inexorably towards the right, and in spite of attempts to block someArab leaders from fielding themselves in the forthcoming elections, their parties have been unable to agree a joint electoral list. Numerous ideological and tactical considerations impede even a minimum level of coordination. Thelikelihood, therefore, is that Palestinians' share of seats in the Knesset will also drop in the forthcoming elections. Although the Palestinians comprise approximately 18 per cent of the population of Israel, they currently have 13 representatives in theKnesset, nine from various Arab parties, two from Labour, one from Meretz and another from Likud.
Perhaps the most fundamental problem facing those forces in Israel that support a negotiated peace settlement is that they lack a clear vision on the basis of whichthey might formulate definitive positions on what is required to revive the peace process. Although this problem has plaguedthe Labour leadership since the assassination of Rabin, it is also true that the current leadership has failed to offer a clearalternative to Likud. Indeed, Amran Mitzna has, on occasion, sounded like a Likudist himself, having sworn to "crush the heads of Palestinians". Such attitudes, whatever the emotions that prompt them, can only play into thehands of the Israeli right.
An examination of the electoral platforms of the parties competing in the forthcoming elections reveals that the right isarmed with a clear agenda that will allow it to hold on to its electoral base, while the left, including Meretz, appearsconfused. The result is that a significant bloc of voters may be lured by the unequivocal positions of the right.
The Israeli right has benefited enormously from the current situation in the region and the world. Its platformrevolves around a set of adamant "No's" that are certain to win votes in an increasingly right-wing climate It says no to a Palestinian peace partner, no to anindependent Palestinian state, no to the division of Jerusalem and no to the right of return for Palestinian refugees. Meanwhile, parties suchas Shas, the National Religious Party and Israel B'aliya clamour for the mass transfer of Palestinians, the expulsion of Arafat and the dismantling of the PA.
The left, on the other hand, is at best ambiguous. The Labour Party, too, rejects the right of return and holds thatJerusalem is the eternal, undivided capital of Israel, though they argue it should enjoy a specific status. It also supportsmaintaining a barrier between Israel and the Palestinian territories at least until a settlement is reached. Ultimately, however, itmaintains that the solution to the conflict resides in the creation of a Palestinian state that lives side by side withIsrael in peace.
The inconsistencies in this agenda are certain to confuse Labour supporters and leave many of them easy prey to the right.Labour, the partner in Oslo, has retreated from the principles of the agreements it signed and has not committed itself to aset of principles that would lead to a productive negotiating process and, hence, to comprehensive peace.
As an Israeli commentator suggested in Ma'arev of 1 December, Labour has opted for an approach cateringto right-wing sentiments, failing to propose clear alternatives and refusing to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the scandals surroundingthe Likud. In its unwillingness to take a bold initiative Labour has left the field open to the right in the hope, perhaps,that it will stumble of its own accord. Such thinking not only inhibits an effective performance in the polls, it promotes theprospects of the right and its increasing sway over Israeli society.
While in Toshka, Mubarak was asked whether he thought negotiations might resume following the Israeli elections. Heanswered: "I cannot say that negotiations will resume after the Israeli elections. There was a time when they said negotiations wouldresume when violence stopped. The violence stopped for a month and they said, 'No, violence must stopcompletely,' even though the violence had stopped completely for a while."
