Jockeying for position
Iraqi opposition figures have their eyes on the prize as they put their best foot forward in the contest for the US administration's favour. Dina Ezzat reports
A select group representing various factions of Iraqi opposition groups are scheduled to meet this week-end in Arbil in northern Iraq to discuss US plans for regime change. The meeting is to be attended by the 65 members of the follow- up and arrangement committee elected last month at the conclusion of the Iraqi opposition conference, held in London under considerable US pressure.
Central to the agenda of the meeting is the enlargement of the follow-up committee and the role that various Iraqi groups should play in any possible US military attack against Saddam Hussein. Also slated for discussion is the vetting of candidates to chair the opposition follow-up committee.
Political observers agreed that any possible US-led action against Saddam would likely involve the help of internal and external opponents of the regime -- a possibility about which Iraqi officials are well aware.
"In the event of military action, the Americans are too cowardly to be involved in direct fighting and they are unlikely to find any Arab state that would be willing to send its troops to participate in an American invasion. So, they have to depend on the groups that are far from Iraq and who are willing to do anything to please Washington, including fighting their own people, in the aim of taking to power one day," commented a Cairo- based Iraqi diplomatic source.
The nature of the role that Iraqi opposition will play to effect a regime change will be determined by several factors. Iraqi opposition groups have to agree among themselves about their vision for a post-Saddam Iraq. They also need to decide how far they will be willing to cooperate with a US military invasion, and maybe even an occupation.
Coming to such agreements is no easy task. Not all Iraqi opposition groups welcome the idea of a US invasion. Some of them, irrespective of their issues with the regime, say they are opposed to any military action against Iraq.
Arab countries also have an impact on which Iraqi opposition groups move to the forefront. So far, with the exception of Damascus and Kuwait and perhaps Cairo, most Arab capitals do not have a very clear vision of who's who in the Iraqi opposition. Other regional players, like Turkey, Iran and Israel, will also be expressing preferences and concerns over the role and rewards for certain opposition groups.
The US is making no secret of the fact that it is already training a number of Iraqi opposition figures -- a few hundred according to reliable reports -- to help US military forces in the event a war is launched. Also, senior Hungarian officials this week said on record that their country will host a large number of members of the opposition and some American military trainers who will work to prepare for a US military action against Iraq.
The groups that are being trained -- whether in the US, Europe, or in some Arab countries, as reports have suggested -- are not meant to fight the war and "liberate" Iraq from the current regime. Rather, their participation is meant to facilitate the American operation and wipe away the stigma of "conquest" that adheres to these operations .
"The so-called opposition groups are just puppets that the US is playing with. They are merely decorative items that are being used by Washington to give a face- lift to its ugly plans to invade an independent country," commented Tareq Aziz, Iraqi deputy prime minister. He added, "These groups have no bases [of political support] whatsoever in our country."
To the extent that most of these groups do not enjoy a wide base of popular support inside Iraq, Aziz may have a point. However, with US financial and political support, some of the groups, especially those representing the Kurds and Shi'ite that have been long quelled by the Saddam Hussein regime, have the potential to build considerable support.
Given that for several decades the Sunnis have had a firm grip on power in Iraq, the opposition is largely made up of Kurds and Shi'ites, both reportedly subject to a series of coercive measures by the ruling regime. While some factions of the Iraqi opposition are limited, both in size and influence, other groups enjoy a fair measure of quiet support inside Iraq. These include semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdish groups in northern Iraq and Shi'ite Muslim groups in the south. The mainstream Iraqi political opposition -- largely based outside of Iraq -- enjoys a close association with US administration and has been receiving aid from Washington for the past decade.
Following a meeting in Washington with the American president last Friday, senior US officials and representatives of the Iraqi opposition reiterated Bush's "firm commitment" to foster democracy and development in Iraq after a short US military presence in the immediate aftermath of a military campaign.
This said, neither the US administration nor the Iraqi government seem to have a clear idea of which particular groups Washington will be cooperating with during an invasion. In Washington, US officials have been expressing apprehension over the credibility and reliability of the opposition groups, including such long-time friends as the Iraqi National Congress (INC). Washington has also been voicing concern over inter-opposition relations. Papers by prestigious American think-tanks have recently warned that Iraq's complicated ethnic composition and the influences over these groups by neighbouring countries like Iran and Turkey could lead to the atomisation of Iraq -- something that the US may not be ready to handle, at least not at this stage. The clear potential for fragmentation, though, has not stopped opposition figures from claiming that they believe in a united Iraq, albeit under some sort of a federal system.
Given that the next Iraqi president will come from the group that scores highest in Washington, Iraqi opposition groups are competing hard to impress the White House. So far the contenders in the self- promotion contest are INC leader Ahmed Chalabi, Adnan Pachachdji, secretary-general of the Democratic Centrist Tendency, and Al-Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein of the Constitutional Monarchy Movement. Some independents are also jockeying for the top job in Iraq. Heading that list is Wafiq Al-Samaraei, a former military man who was elected to the follow-up committee in December.
The general picture of a post-Saddam Iraq seems to have been determined: a new regime that is friendly to the US and Israel, generally acceptable to most Arab capitals, and willing to cooperate with some form of US military presence while at the same time maintaining its hold on the country. What remains to be seen is which opposition group, or for that matter groups, will be cooperating with the US, and may be its military representative, to implement the scenario.
