The war on the streets
In the event of a US strike, Iraq will be more than ready for the street battles. Sherine Bahaa reviews Arab intelligence insights about the war ahead
On 24 June, US President George W Bush named Iraq a member of what he called the axis of evil. Those remarks were considered an indicator that an attack on Iraq was in the offing. But, a war on Iraq aimed at toppling the regime, say military experts in the region, won't be easy.
"First, it was Yugoslavia, then Afghanistan," Major-General Adel Soliman, an Egyptian defence expert, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Iraq, though, is different matter."
In Soliman's view, Yugoslavia was an easy target for the Americans to deal with because it is a European country and it had been weakened by the fall of the Soviet Union. Afghanistan, he argued, barely had the trappings of a state. Instead, the factors that had to be considered were tribal conflicts and the potential for such groupings to pose a strong opposition.
The Iraqi situation, say the experts, is incomparable with those other two experiences. Iraqis are for the most part Arabs and Sunni Muslims; domestic opposition is weak and Iraqis regard much of the opposition in exile as comprising traitors.
Iraq's state infrastructure is well-established and it has a strong central government and military. "Iraq will not be easily taken over," Soliman said.
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein expressed similar sentiments during a recent meeting with the commanders of his Republican Guards, warning the United States that Iraq was no Afghanistan.
"It seems that what the enemy called the fall of the Taliban regime [in Afghanistan] is tempting it to launch an aggression against Iraq," Hussein told the officers led by his youngest son Qusay -- the "supervisor" of the Guards, Iraqi television said.
The Taliban, argued Hussein, did not even form a state during their rule in Afghanistan.
"In 1991, we didn't have experience in this type of fighting... but now our armed forces are stronger, our soldiers better understand their duties and role. As for weapons, they have been developed, but in general remain the same," the Iraqi leader added.
And while such remarks are largely consistent with the posturing typical of Iraqi official rhetoric, it seems that this time the US might have reason to worry.
Before the deployment of US troops in the region, US commander of forces in the region`, General Tommy Franks, warned Bush that war with Iraq would be no simple matter. Franks laid out some of his military concerns in case of war. These included the danger that US troops might become bogged down in bloody street-fighting in Iraq and the problem of finding a successor to Saddam Hussein who would be capable of improving the situation in the country.
As the US's sabre-rattling becomes louder by the day, Iraq has been readying itself -- both politically and militarily -- for a full-scale war.
On the military level, as Soliman put it, "The Americans may be the ones who fire the first shot, but it's up to the Iraqis to determine when the last one will be fired."
According to intelligence reports issued by Baghdad, the Iraqi president has intensified his contacts recently with Iraqi central leadership, top military leaders as well as members of the Revolutionary Command Council to consult on plans to address the situation in the event of an attack.
Hussein has made his plans, in Soliman's words, "Based on the potentials available within his country and on the other side's objectives."
Since the early days of the administration of George W Bush, US policy on Iraq has been clear: Saddam Hussein must be removed -- by force, if necessary. Right or wrong, this rationale for a military campaign has been contentious not only among ordinary Americans, but among military people as well.
"[Predictably] Saddam wants to protect himself and prevent any sort of instability that might result from an American invasion," Soliman told the Weekly.
According to intelligence sources, the Iraqi army appears prepared for a land battle against US forces. In spite of the years of sanctions and poor conditions, the Iraqi armed forces have sustained a powerful military infrastructure.
According to Soliman, Hussein's military power rests primarily on the Republican Guard, which consists of seven squadrons whose troops total 80,000, 15,000 commandos and the Iraqi army, which comprises 150,000 soldiers. "They are all very well-trained, with high levels of physical fitness and they are well-equipped."
The role of these forces is the preservation of stability and prevention of any foreign penetration of urban centres.
According to the plan set out by Saddam Hussein and his military commanders, these forces will be distributed in key centres like Kirkuk and Mosul -- the obvious targets for any US forces as they are known for their abundance of oil. The forces are also there to meet any invasion coming from Turkey. All bridges over the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers will be destroyed to delay any forces seeking to cross the rivers en route to any of the strategic cities until more Iraqi troops are deployed.
In the meantime, Basra, another strategic centre, will be protected by what the Iraqis call "Saddam forces", or the popular army. Saddam forces are, in fact, trained militias comprising more than one million persons.
Any military forces that reach these centres will find themselves bogged down in street fighting -- the scenario the US administration most wants to avoid, as it would mean more civilian casualties. Such a situation would be unacceptable to the American public, a good portion of which believes that a war against Iraq is unjustifiable.
According to Soliman, these hundreds and thousands of fighters -- whether from the Iraqi army or acting volunteers are all behind Hussein and his regime. "They know that if the regime falls they will suffer considerably. Taking this into account, it is clear that overthrowing Saddam a walk in the park."
