Exit scenarios
The last Abbasid Caliph, Gilgamesh or Samson? Which, if any, will Saddam emulate, asks Salah Hemeid
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CAIRO SAYS NO: Hundreds of Egyptians took to the streets in four demonstrations this week protesting against the expected US-UK led war on Iraq. The third protest, took place on Saturday in Al-Sayeda Zeinab Square and was the first demonstration in Egypt coordinated with the global anti-war movement.
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Reports in the Arab and international press that Iraq's neighbours -- increasingly desperate to head off a regional war -- are encouraging Saddam Hussein to step down and find a safe haven abroad, persist in the face of repeated denials by senior Iraqi officials.
An invitation by the Turkish government to leaders of Iraq's neighbours -- Syria, Iran, Jordan, as well as Saudi Arabia and Egypt -- to review proposals for averting a military conflict in the US-Iraq standoff this weekend served to fuel speculation that these countries are advocating the removal of Saddam to pave the way for a new regime in Iraq.
On Tuesday Turkish Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis said the preparatory meeting, scheduled today, will focus on pressing Iraq to further cooperate with UN arms inspectors. He said delegates would not be looking to persuade Saddam to go into exile. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher, and his Saudi counterpart Saud Al-Faisal, who met in Cairo on Tuesday to coordinate diplomatic positions ahead of the Istanbul meeting, also insisted that their aim is to find a way to spare the region war not to get Saddam to stand down.
Reports continue to suggest, however, that at least one aim of the conference is for the six regional powers attending to send a clear message to Saddam that he must step down or else face serious consequences. And any package offered to Saddam is likely to include a safe haven for his family and close aides. Yet other reports have suggested that Saudi Arabia is already engaged in attempts to persuade the Iraqi army and security forces to overthrow Saddam should he continue to refuse to relinquish power and go to exile.
Iraqi officials, denying such talks are underway, have scoffed at the reports as "silly and trivial". Saddam's cousin, a member of ruling Revolution Command Council, warned reporters in Beirut on Tuesday that they would hear "harsh words" from him if they continued pressing this line of questioning.
The American response was surprisingly forthright. On Sunday three of Washington's key officials hinted that they would consider allowing Saddam to find a safe haven in order to avoid war even as they rejected calls for any delay in confronting him militarily.
"I think that would be a fair trade to avoid a war," Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld suggested in a television interview. Secretary of State Colin Powell urged Saddam to listen carefully "when other nations urge him to abdicate", while Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, said "it would be good to explore it" but adding that she thought it "unlikely that this man is going to come down in any other way than to be forced".
The comments of the three administration officials, in a carefully coordinated round of television appearances, appeared intended to increase the military pressure on Baghdad and to shake up the calculations being made by Saddam, his closest family and associates. In recent weeks administration officials had spoken of an amnesty for those of Saddam's subordinates who break with him though they had not, till now, indicated that the offer would extend to the Iraqi leader. Yet administration officials continue to believe that the possibility of Saddam leaving voluntarily -- with or without an amnesty arrangement -- is remote.
Saddam, predictably, has chosen to ignore talk about his removal, at least publicly. In a speech marking the 12th anniversary of the Gulf War, he vowed that Iraq will fight any US-led invasion, which he compared to the 1258 conquest of Baghdad by the Moguls, who destroyed the city and killed the last Abbasid Muslim Caliph, Al-Mustasim.
The Iraqi leader has a penchant for allegorical references from the distant past. A few days after the speech he told army commanders that Gilgamesh, the legendary king of Uruk, had abdicated to go wondering "in search of the secret of immortality", the quote a possible indication of the Iraqi leader's current state of mind.
The possibility of Saddam going into exile was first raised in August when Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Al-Thani visited Baghdad for talks with Saddam. Then newspaper reports said he had offered the Iraqi leader exile in an unspecified country. Iraqi officials denied the reports while Al-Thani said his visit had aimed only at persuading Saddam to accept the return of UN weapons inspectors which Saddam did a month later. But a proposal by Qatar earlier in December to convene an emergency Arab summit reinforced speculation that the emirate was trying to garner Arab backing for Saddam's peaceful exit.
Arab diplomats interviewed by Al-Ahram Weekly over the last two weeks say a concrete proposal for Saddam's exit has not yet matured, and most believe it is useless to make such an offer until Saddam realises he has no other option.
"Few Arabs will shed tears if Saddam goes away but the timing of such an offer must be right," one Arab diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
Sabah Salman, Saddam's press secretary during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, also rules out the idea that the Iraqi leader will ever bow out willingly. Suggesting that Saddam might prefer the Samson option, Salman said the Iraqi leader "would rather fight along to the bitter end". Salman, who defected after the 1991 Gulf War, told the Weekly in a telephone interview from his European exile: "Saddam is keeping the last bullet in his gun for himself."
