Sharon's Israel
Winning the Israeli elections may turn out to be the easy part of Ariel Sharon's triumph. He has now to form a government, writes Graham Usher from Jerusalem
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PALESTINIAN children gather around the body of Ali Ghriez during his funeral in the Rafah refugee camp. The seven-year-old was killed by Israeli soldiers on Sunday
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It was expected but it was still unprecedented. In the Israeli elections on Tuesday the Likud Party swept all before them, winning a colossal 37 seats in the 120- member Knesset in what was a popular endorsement, if not of his policies, then of the personality, methods and worldview of its leader and Israel's next prime minister, Ariel Sharon.
Reaching barely 19 seats, Avram Mitzna's Labour Party suffered its worst ever defeat while the leftist Meretz faction shrivelled from 10 seats to six, forcing its leader Yossi Sarid to resign. Israel's Arab parties more or less held their own, winning 10 seats but with a lower than average Palestinian turn out. Rarely, however, have they been more isolated or powerless, as Israel's Jewish citizenry lurched from the left to the centrist politics of Shinnui (which won 15 seats) and from the centre to the right.
Sharon has a parliamentary majority of 67 should he choose to form a coalition of Israel's right-wing and religious parties. His dilemma is that this is the coalition he least desires.
"I appeal to all of the Zionist parties to join the widest-ever national unity government based on the same guidelines as the former unity government," he pleaded before victorious Likud members in Tel Aviv early Wednesday.
Translated, this means Sharon will spend the next month doing everything in his power to woo Labour back into the National Unity fold, insisting, accurately, that such an alliance expresses "the will of the people" and has rarely been more vital given "the Iraqi threat hanging over our heads". But Mitzna so far remains unpersuaded.
"We have no intention of joining [Sharon] but we will replace him," vowed Mitzna to his subdued supporters in Tel Aviv. "The people chose Ariel Sharon to be prime minister and chose us to be the alternative, and every day and in every part of the country the Labour Party, under my leadership, will remind Sharon and the entire public that there is an alternative, that there is another way."
Most Israeli analysts believe Mitzna will stay true to his vow. Even the most die-hard supporters of unity within Labour are aware that their partnership with Likud seared what was left of the party's political identity and credibility. Most agree that a period in opposition is sorely needed if Labour is to rehabilitate itself in the eyes of the electorate and become again a national force in Israeli politics.
In the absence of Labour Sharon could form two coalitions, neither of which he finds particularly palatable. One is to join forces with Shinnui and Israel's right-wing, settler and immigrant parties. Shinnui's condition for this is that he ditches Israel's orthodox parties, particularly the Sephardi Shas movement, which won 11 seats. But without Labour Sharon would be loath to bury his alliance with the orthodox in the teeth of opposition from Likud and the other right-wing parties.
The other is a "nationalist" government made up of the religious and the right. Given their opposition to a Palestinian state and settlement freeze, such a coalition would almost certainly cause problems for Sharon's "strategic relationship" with America. It would also be deeply unpopular. Tuesday's elections not only marked a shift to the right in Israeli society but also the revived power of its secularist and Ashkenazi middle-class as represented by Shinnui, which would probably join Labour in opposition to such a government. This coalition may yet happen and even survive, but only in a limbo until the next elections.
For the Palestinian leadership this may be the least worst of the various government scenarios since polarisation in Israel tends to be the soil in which the "peace camp" best flourishes. But this is the scantiest of comforts.
Israel's 16th general elections demonstrated one thing above all others about contemporary Israel: the demise of the Oslo Process and all those associated with it. On Tuesday Israeli voters finally punished Labour and Meretz for bringing Yasser Arafat and the Palestinian Authority to the West Bank and Gaza with a promise of peace and security but with the result of the Intifada. This at least is how Sarid explained his resignation.
"Two things hurt us," he said. "One was the Labour Party. It must take note of the fact that our entire camp has shrunk to a terrible and frightening extent. The second factor was Arafat. It is completely clear that the reason for our loss is that we are viewed as Arab- lovers."
In the nationalist, xenophobic and martial ethos of Sharon's Israel, there can be no worse charge.
