Actions and words
By
Salama A Salama
While President Bush and his secretary of state continue to insist that they remain amenable to a peaceful solution of the Iraqi crisis the actions of the current US administration indicate only that the headlong desire to rush to war far outweighs any counsel to pursue an alternative route. And given the opposition to the war option which has opened on several fronts, one at least spearheaded by Washington's European allies, American obstinacy cannot help but raise doubts about the real motives of the right- wing clique that came to power with Bush.
International pressure may be sufficient to ensure that the US administration waits for two or three weeks, in order to allow the weapons inspectors to complete their tasks. But military concerns about avoiding operations during the height of the Iraqi summer mean that any postponement beyond a few weeks is unlikely. This is what most Arab countries anticipate, a position made clear in President Mubarak's warnings to Saddam Hussein that the massing of troops is not a bluff.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair made the dangers even more clear when he stated that war could begin without the weapons inspectors unearthing any proofs implicating Iraq. Such is the arrogance of power, such the feelings of immunity to the negative affects on international relations that the war will bring, especially in the Middle East.
The signs are all in place. Israel no longer hides its intentions towards the Palestinians. The offensive which took place a few days ago -- an invasion of the Gaza Strip which left 12 Palestinians dead -- was undertaken with the pathetically lame excuse of "destroying Palestinian missile factories". The invasion was, of course, just one more move in Sharon's strategy to negate the possibility of a peaceful solution to the Palestinian question ever emerging: it was nothing more than a calculated escalation, a rehearsal of the policies Sharon is preparing his constituents to accept in the sure knowledge that he will be forming the next Israeli government.
Arab countries are preparing for the coming storm in the most feeble manner, focusing all their efforts on warning Iraq, urging it to surrender unconditionally to the US. These same Arab countries will find themselves in unenviable positions, though, in any post- war scenario which sees the installation in Baghdad of an Iraqi regime unquestioningly allied to the US. Such a volte face is likely to be the first domino to fall in the series, and the falling will reverberate throughout the Arab world in a manner certain to impact radically on the regional status quo.
The Americans are not concerned about hostile reactions in the Arab street; they are confident of the abilities of security apparatuses to deal with any repercussions. They view the possible consequences in South Asia, though, with far less equanimity. A US- led war in Iraq could easily result in the overthrow of the current regime in Pakistan and its replacement by a radical Islamic power more in sympathy with the Pakistani street. And the war against Iraq could well tempt India to follow in America's footsteps and launch in a preemptive strike in a region bristling with nuclear warheads.
It is for these reasons that many believe the US strike will be a sudden. The Bush administration will not hesitate to launch an attack the minute it secures the number of allied forces it deems necessary to contain the internal affairs of Iraq. Such containment, though, could easily continue for three years or more, thus guarantee the Republicans' re-election for a second term.
