Clash of the titans?
Russians feel that the US's stance on Iraq is merely the prelude to a much greater strategic initiative in the region. Shohdy Naguib reports from Moscow
The whole world seems to know the motivations for a United States war on Iraq better than the American people themselves. The Russians are no exception. Indeed, the US's "democracy vs tyranny" discourse can only arouse sad smiles and resignation among those who have had more than their fair share of not so democratic plunder over the last decade.
The tyrannical leaders of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are little better than Saddam Hussein in most respects -- short of chemical warfare against their own people. Saparmurat Turkmenbashi of Turkmenistan and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, seem to be little more than a harmless nuisance -- embarrassing yes, but far from an "axis of evil".
Russians have an impressive geopolitical awareness, which when coupled with their unrivalled proficiency in chess, allows them to consider developments a few moves ahead of time. In fact, former US National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski's book, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives leaves no illusions regarding the ambitions of a resource-thirsty superpower in Eurasia. Yet, few Americans see the US's immediate mission in Iraq as part of a grander, long-term strategy.
The US, an unassailable "hyperpower" for now, feels that fully disarming Russia is indispensable to its long-term military dominance. However, the "Bald Eagle's" adventures in Eurasia have not escaped the attention of the Russian "Bear" and it won't be long before a confrontation between the two manifests itself openly. Some analysts believe that a conflict of this nature could ensue within five to ten years, when Russia's aging military arsenal will cease to be a serious deterrent to its opponents.
Gaining material advantage by swallowing pawns and lesser figures, the Russians argue, will clear the board for a devastating end-game. This will be the real third world war. The fourth will probably be fought with sticks, as Einstein was reported to have prophesised.
All the while, Russia's pro-Zionist media is doing its best to divert public attention towards the immediate and practical aspects of the inevitable war and the access to Iraq's natural resources that will follow. Diagrams and graphs of market fluctuations, Russian corporate interests, contracts and guaranties, Iraq's debt and, of course, the various estimates of its untapped oil reserves dominate the news. The imminent humanitarian tragedy is blurred behind general speculations about "havoc in the region" and global anti-war protests are bluntly belittled as quite routine.
In the media, Saddam dominates as if the plight of the Iraqi people was irrelevant and news about the arsenal of weapons aimed at him is a source of seemingly endless debate. Wading through all this disinformation is a tedious task, even on the Internet, which has itself become a subject of close scrutiny by Russia's special security personnel.
In spite of this, Russia's media is still relatively free in comparison with the US's, which is controlled by the Cheney-Bush junta. It would be unfair to accuse Russians of indifference to the suffering of the Iraqi people and profiteering from their misery. Moscow's streets have witnessed their own anti-American and anti-war protests and many a valiant and angry voice can be heard speaking the words of reason and righteousness.
Online forums reveal the "truth" laboriously concealed by the media. This "truth" is as stunning as it is simple: this is a "currency war". The countries of the "axis of evil" as well as the people in the exchange office just around the corner are ditching their dollars and replacing them with euros.
People seem to have an intuitive grassroots understanding of complex macro-economic processes, something that Americans are blissfully unaware of. Further analysis reveals the scope of the effort to conceal the true value of the petro-dollar and the monetary-political mechanism that effectively puts the US in possession of the world's oil for free. Voices like Voxnyx, Gore Vidal, Indymedia.org, among others are making history with their poignant criticism of America's new plutocracy.
Meanwhile, Russian diplomacy appears to be focussed on mediation, as it was in the 1991 Gulf War. Its priorities are to protect its interests in the region and try to avert a war if possible. In a related development, that is yet to be officially elaborated upon, the General Staff has submitted a plan to renew Russia's naval presence in the Indian ocean. This would mean dispatching two detachments of warships from the Pacific and Black Sea fleets which will be joined by two nuclear submarines that belong to the Arctic fleet. These will have access to ports in the United Arab Emirates and Iran and their task will be to secure the safety of Russian trade-ships en route.
More warships will head for the East Mediterranean to monitor any air-strikes that might take place. Russian submarines will sail to the Gulf for surveillance and intelligence purposes. The funding for this substantial military deployment will come from a special peacekeeping budget. The Russian fleet is expecting to be in place by mid-February.
