Jumping the gun
A warning issued by the US State Department to Americans abroad is another indication that US preparations for war are going ahead at full speed, writes Nyier Abdou
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We won't go quietly: Egyptians protest against war in Iraq and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon under the shadow of omnipresent riot police in front of the UN headquarters in Cairo on Monday
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While the United States has made no secret of its aggressive war plans for Iraq, a cable sent out by the US State Department on Friday, 24 January, to US embassies around the world has been taken as yet another sign that the administration of US President George W Bush has set a steady course towards war in Iraq. The regular "warden message" that was the result of the State Department cable warns US citizens that, given "serious political or economic unrest, natural disasters, and terrorist attacks" over the past year, Americans abroad should be prepared for an emergency that might warrant an evacuation.
While war in Iraq is not mentioned directly, the timing of the message is conspicuous, coming amid a large deployment of American troops to the Gulf and strong statements about the US stance on Iraq. While warnings are often sent to embassy and government personnel overseas regarding security concerns, the message is possibly the first to directly address ordinary expatriates -- what embassy staff call "non-official Americans" -- about preparations of this kind.
A spokesman at the American Embassy in Cairo told Al-Ahram Weekly that it was not certain why this message had come out now. While there are certainly conclusions being drawn about the timing of the message, he didn't think it appropriate to link it explicitly to what is going on in the region. He noted that the message was sent everywhere, from Latin America, to Africa, and carries its own caveat, which tries to balance the unsettling tone: "We do not want American citizens to become unduly alarmed. These are precautionary measures only."
Some of the suggested precautions are just good sense: keeping all vital documents updated and in a readily accessible place; keeping any necessary visas valid; registering with the embassy. Others are more unnerving, reminding Americans that they should keep a "complete inventory of your household effects, in duplicate", and maintain "an adequate supply of food, water, and necessary medications in your home". Citizens are reminded to keep their car in working order, with the gas tank full.
The US is the only administration to have perceived a need at this time to issue such a reminder. Even Britain, the US' closest ally in drumming up support for military action in Iraq, has made no such moves. A spokesman at the British Embassy told the Weekly that Britain does not generally issue vague warnings, noting that if such a message had come from the embassy, it "would be quite clear why we were doing it".
A few calls around to other embassies soon made clear that the US warning was seen as too early, and probably unnecessary. At the German Embassy, a spokesman told the Weekly that Germany is not on the same level with the US regarding a potential threat to its citizens in light of a possible war in Iraq, saying that at this time, "we don't see any reason" to alter the status quo. Asked how the situation would have to change in order to provoke a warning from their offices, the spokesman noted that there are routine plans for emergencies and a team of experts who deal with crisis management. Their recommendations would "depend very much on the situation," but in Egypt now, he said, "the situation is stable."
This sentiment was echoed at the French Embassy, where a spokesman told the Weekly that he had no information regarding even travel warnings to the region. There are no "new instructions" regarding a possible war in Iraq, he said. "For the moment, it's very normal; there is nothing special."
While the message would seem to ring some warning bells about fear of anti-American sentiment should the US lead a unilateral war in Iraq, surprisingly few people in the American community in Cairo were aware of the message. A spokeswoman for the American University in Cairo was surprised to hear about the message, but dismissed any speculation that the university might be preparing evacuation plans or entertaining the possibility of closing. The press office at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt was also unaware of the warning.
While the American Embassy spokesman underscored that the message was more of a reminder than a warning signal, it is interesting to speculate on what kind of warnings the future may hold. If the US is willing to raise this kind of red flag while a war in Iraq is still undecided, what kind of scenarios are unfolding behind closed doors for possible angry responses to a powerful military campaign in Iraq? It seems that the message could be taken both as a sign that war is imminent and that it is not, since the US leadership is obviously well aware of the kind of resentment a US-led war and occupation could engender and the danger this may pose to its citizens around the world. How they choose to act on this knowledge is still very much in the balance.
