Keeping the peace
Regional moves to avert war in Iraq have been plagued by a clash of agendas among the six countries that met in Istanbul this week. Gareth Jenkins reports
Foreign ministers from six Middle Eastern countries met in Istanbul last Thursday in an attempt to coordinate efforts to find a solution to the stand-off between Iraq and the US and prevent Washington from launching a war to try to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
At the end of the meeting the foreign ministers of Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey issued a joint statement in which they called on the Iraqi leadership to, "move irreversibly and sincerely towards assuming their responsibilities in restoring peace and stability in the region" through full cooperation with United Nations weapons inspectors and in full compliance with the relevant UN resolutions.
But the meeting revealed more about tensions between some of the participants, particularly Turkey and Syria, than it did about prospects for halting the US's apparent determination to use force against Saddam Hussein. The meeting was the initiative of Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul.
Public opinion polls suggest that over 80 per cent of the Turkish people are opposed to a US- led war against Iraq. Over the weekend tens of thousands of Turks from all walks of life, and virtually the entire political spectrum, staged anti-war demonstrations across the country.
"The only good thing that can be said about America's plans for a war is that it has brought everyone in Turkey together. Nobody here wants this war," said Yagmur Acar, a researcher and film producer.
Such public opposition to war has driven the Turkish government into a corner. Privately, government officials acknowledge that eventually Turkey will have little choice but to support Washington, including deploying Turkish troops as a temporary occupying force in northern Iraq.
"The US is a vital ally," said one official. "We get nearly all of our military equipment from the US and we are over $30 billion in debt to the IMF. We can't afford to antagonise them. We can prevaricate for a time but in the end we shall have to say yes to whatever the US asks from us."
Privately, Turkish officials admit that the Turkish government's motivation for holding the meeting was as much a public relations exercise as a genuine attempt to prevent a war.
"For the prime minister, the meeting enables him to demonstrate to the Turkish public that he is doing everything possible to avoid war while also acting as a regional leader by bringing these countries together."
Certainly, tense behind-the-scenes negotiations between Turkey and Syria over the wording of the statement released at the end of the meeting appeared to be driven more by diplomatic considerations and regional tensions than a genuine attempt to find a solution to the crisis. Syria, which had originally offered to host the meeting in Damascus, objected to the original draft of the statement prepared by Turkey on the grounds that it failed to criticise the US for its role in the Iraqi crisis or to mention the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
After negotiations lasting late into the evening, the statement was finally re-drafted to include an explicit call for a "peaceful solution of the Palestinian issue" and, in an oblique reference to Israel's extensive stockpile of non- conventional armaments, the establishment in "the Middle East [of] a zone free from weapons of mass destruction." Although Turkey, anxious not to offend Washington, refused to allow any direct reference to the US.
At the end of the Istanbul meeting, the participants left open the possibility of a follow- up summit for regional heads of state in Damascus in late January or early February. On Saturday, Bouthaina Shaaban, the director of the Syrian Foreign Ministry's foreign media department, said that the six would make a decision on whether to meet again in the light of how the UN Security Council reacted to the report of the UN weapons inspectors, which was due to be submitted on Monday.
"They have agreed to consult and decide if there is a need for a meeting on the report," said Shaaban, adding that Kuwait was also expected to attend if the follow-up meeting went ahead in Damascus.
Shaaban described the Istanbul meeting as an "expression of determination by the six countries to say that war is not necessary".
But he admitted that he had doubts about whether any diplomatic efforts could prevent Washington's drive towards war.
"France, Germany and Russia are trying. Iraq's neighbours are trying. How successful the attempts will be I can't tell," he said.
