The Saudi factor
Saudi Arabia is assuming an increasingly effective role in regional affairs. Dina Ezzat writes
The next meeting of Arab foreign ministers, scheduled to take place in Cairo in a little over a week, is likely to focus on the most recent developments in the Iraq issue as well as the outcome of Arab efforts to avert a United States-led war. Saudi Arabia has been involved in talks in Washington and other concerned world capitals, and is endeavouring to avoid war by producing a political solution acceptable to both Washington and Baghdad.
Informed sources maintain that Saudi Arabia has had more talks with Washington about this matter than any other Arab country, and some even say Saudi Arabia has also been talking with top United Nations officials.
Arab foreign ministers expected to show up at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League for the meetings will be briefed by Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al- Faissal on his talks last week in Washington with US President George W Bush and Foreign Secretary Colin Powell. They will also be expecting to hear what Al-Faissal had to say about the establishment of diplomatic contacts -- an exercise encouraged by Riyadh and other Arab and non-Arab states -- in order to find a dignified way for the Iraqi president to accommodate US demands for a change of regime in Iraq, as well as a way for the US president to avert war without sustaining huge political loss.
"At this point it is highly unlikely that the American president will turn his back on war without being granted some of his key demands in relation to Iraq, particularly in relation to regime changes," said one Arab diplomatic source. He added, "obviously, for the Iraqi president to be willing to relegate power in any shape or form he needs to be presented with a package. This is what Saudi Arabia is trying to help create, to spare itself and the entire region the destructive impact of war."
Senior Saudi officials are on record as saying that they will not be involved in forcing a change of regime, or for that matter president, in Iraq. Considering the ethnic makeup of Iraq, this attitude is probably the most acceptable. The Saudis are trying to introduce a setup which allows for US- sponsored power-sharing in Iraq in which all political factions are represented, and which provides the Iraqi president the opportunity to willingly relinquish political power on a gradual basis.
While other key Arab states are involved in these -- and other -- diplomatic moves to avoid war, Riyadh is in a sense taking the lead. Saudi officials are not particularly keen to see a change of regime in Baghdad, commented one Saudi source, but should the change indeed come, the Saudis want to make it as peaceful and dignified as possible. "We feel sorry for what has become of the Iraqi people. We may not necessarily agree with the regime, but we do not want to have war; not if we can avoid it," the source added.
Over the past three or four years Saudi Arabia has been becoming increasingly involved in diplomatic action on behalf of key regional and Arab issues. Indeed, Riyadh has started to establish itself as a centre of Arab politics over the past couple of years. "It is very unlikely now that any key Western diplomat will visit the region without stopping in the Saudi capital for talks, and this is not only because of the Saudi importance as a key oil producer, but also because of its significance as a major political player in the Middle East," commented one Arab official. "This is becoming increasingly the case," he added, "and for a good reason the Saudis are playing an active part in all issues related to the Middle East."
Indeed, over the past three years Riyadh has been working on a key initiative. A few weeks ago, Saudi Arabia sent the secretary- general of the Arab League and a selected group of Arab heads a draft of the 'New Arab Code of Ethics'. This is a two-tiered strategy for conducting Arab relations, dealing with both the political and economic aspects which could improve Arab rapport. This document has been submitted against a backdrop of increasing criticism regarding the poor state of Arab relations and solidarity. And last year, when there was confusion over the future of Arab-Israeli relations, Prince Saud Al-Faissal proposed a peace initiative based on the two-state (Palestinian and Israeli) vision that was adopted by the Arab summit in Beirut last March. Other Saudi diplomatic efforts include the provision of systematic financial aid to the Palestinians, the promotion of better Arab relations with Iran and the establishment of stronger ties with the US.
The Saudis continued with their diplomatic programme despite coming under attack due to the involvement of Osama Bin Laden and a group of Saudi fundamentalists in the 9/11 attacks. Commentators observed that they continue to promote their increasingly central regional role and deal with the Americans on this basis. In the words of one commentator, "a few years ago, the Saudis would not have tried to take the lead without consulting with both Cairo and Damascus. This is no longer the case."
