Message to Baghdad
Upcoming Arab meetings will attempt to spare Iraq from US military aggression, reports Dina Ezzat
Arab foreign ministers are meeting in Cairo on 15 and 16 February to discuss potential political moves with respect to the increasingly urgent Iraqi issue, following a Lebanese initiative. According to diplomatic sources, the meeting will also lay the groundwork for a new Arab summit, expected to take place in Cairo during the last week of February.
The venue and timing of the summit has been changed from late March in the Bahraini capital of Manama, to late February at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo. "The situation in Iraq merits immediate attention from Arab leaders. All signs indicate that a US-led war against Iraq is becoming more likely than ever before. This is a situation that needs to be discussed by Arab leaders, who have to consider every possible option to reverse the course of war. [They must also] think of what is going to become of Iraq and the entire region if war occurs," commented one Arab diplomat. He added that Arab leaders also needed to consider the situation in Palestine, which is deteriorating because of increasing intransigence on the side of the Israeli government.
Meanwhile, Bahraini officials at the highest levels have requested that the summit be moved away from Manama, where top US military officials are stationed. It is anticipated that US jets will strike Iraq from airbases in Bahrain and Qatar. "It is no secret that Bahrain, like other Gulf states, is playing host to a heavy US military presence and it is perfectly understandable that for, both Bahrain and many Arab capitals, it might be best if the summit is moved to Cairo," commented one Arab diplomat.
As far as Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa is concerned, "The situation is very serious and the Arab world is faced with serious threats that cannot be put on the backburner for long."
In fact, on Monday, Babel, a leading Iraqi newspaper, run by the son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, called on Arab leaders to hold a summit to take necessary action to prevent war against Iraq.
In view of the ongoing developments, the agendas of the upcoming ministerial meeting and summit will be focused on two issues: Iraq and Palestine. "Maybe there will be a third item, related to the Saudi initiative of reforming Arab relations, but that item in fact is closely related to the issue of Iraq since it deals with the prohibition of providing Arab facilities for an attack against any Arab country," said one informed Arab source. He added that, "it is going to be mainly about Iraq."
Arab leaders meeting in Cairo will focus on sending messages and missions to Baghdad. The key message is that time is really running out. Iraq must show more flexibility and strip the US of every possible pretext for military action.
Iraqi Permanent Representative to the Arab League Mohsen Khalil, argues that, "Iraq has been showing maximum flexibility," and it is time for Arab states to take a firm stance against war. Kuwaiti Permanent Representative to the Arab League Ahmed El-Kolib, argues that Iraq is not cooperating with the UN on key matters, including the issue of Kuwaiti prisoners of war (POWs) in Iraq. If Iraq wants to be spared it needs to show more cooperation.
For the most part, Arab capitals are convinced that Iraq has been making an effort to cooperate, but more can be done by an Iraqi regime which is largely responsible for the current situation.
"The fact of the matter is that Iraq has been cooperating and the US is looking for a pretext to strike and invade Iraq, but it is also fact that the Iraqi regime has put itself in this corner from the day it invaded Kuwait," commented a senior Arab official. He added, "it is therefore now the responsibility of the Iraqi regime to exercise more flexibility to make it as difficult as possible for the US to start what seems to be an inevitable war against Iraq."
In their upcoming meetings, top Arab officials will be examining ways to convince the US to allow more time to convince Iraq to "cooperate better".
The definition of better Iraqi cooperation may not be very easy for the Iraqi government to accept since it entails self-denial on the part of some top Iraqi officials -- including Iraqi President Saddam Hussein himself -- who may have to go as far as expressing the will to give up their executive prerogatives, perhaps even power. "To be honest I don't think it is going to be an easy mission but this is what we are doing: sending messages and maybe even missions to Baghdad during the coming few weeks to get Iraqi officials to act in a way that will make the Americans hold their horses," said one Arab diplomatic source. He added that, "we also have to work with the Americans, and others, on securing the fate and future of some Iraqi officials if they decide they want to abandon power. This task will be no easier."
The upcoming Arab meetings are set to convene amid gloomy developments in the region. The US has indicated that it would not necessarily go to the UN to obtain international consensus for a strike on Iraq and if it does go to the Security Council it will not pay much attention to any veto against the use of force. Russia has recently indicated that if Iraq failed to cooperate sufficiently with the UN, Moscow will reduce its opposition for war against Iraq. Additionally, eight European countries have already declared their support for a US-led war against Iraq.
Other European countries remain largely undecided but Greece, current president of the European Union, has warned Iraq that time is running out. Turkey, which has been leading regional moves to secure a peaceful settlement to the crisis, is now stating that it cannot oppose the US. Israel is using all the influence it has in Washington to increase the chances of war. Furthermore, international arms inspectors are not giving Iraq a vote of support. Meanwhile, the US is stepping up its diplomatic and military preparations for war.
"In fact, in most diplomatic and decision- making quarters now the line is that war is inevitable and we have to think of the day after Saddam," commented a diplomatic source.
Most Arab capitals, as much as they are opposed to the Iraqi regime, are hoping that war might be avoided. Arab officials express a clear awareness of the serious economic and political cost they would have to sustain in case a war is launched against Iraq. Thus, they are trying hard to stop the march towards war.
According to one Arab official, "we are trying to convince the Americans that war will bring serious economic recession and Islamist opposition that is not in the interest of the stability of most ruling regimes and consequently not in the interest of the US. We are also trying to convince Iraqi officials that since there is no way they will win the war they might as well avoid being evasive as the price for this will be high. I am not sure if we will succeed."
