Looking beyond contraception
A baby is born every 23.7 seconds and more than one third of the population is under 15. Gihan Shahine digs into the latest census
The Central Authority for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) revealed last week that Egypt's total population broke the 69.2 million mark in January 2003, with 67.3 million people living in Egypt, plus an estimated 1.9 million Egyptians temporarily living abroad. In 2002 alone, the population increased by more than 1.3 million at a rate of 110,600 new births a month. That means 3,636 newborns a day, or a baby born every 23.7 seconds.
CAPMAS Chairman Ehab Elwi told the press on Sunday, however, that the natural growth rate has actually gone down from 2.04 per cent in 2001 to 1.99 per cent in 2002. This, he explained, was due to a slight decrease in birth rates from 26.69 to 26.28 per 1000, and an increase in death rates from 6.27 to 6.37 per 1000.
"The slight decrease in birth rates should be seen as a positive indicator that family planning efforts are making headway," Hisham Makhlouf, head of the Demographic Centre, told Al-Ahram Weekly. "Nonetheless, we need more effective programmes to bring down birth rates to achieve our ambitious development targets and keep up with economic growth."
The drop in birth rates, however, is also the result of delayed marriages. While married couples made up 64.8 per cent of those within the legal marrying age range in 1986, this figure dropped to 61.2 per cent in 1996, when the last comprehensive census was conducted. The number of unmarried people thus increased from 25.7 to 27.8 per cent. Marriages below the legal age, which were common in rural areas, have also gone down thanks to successful illiteracy eradication programmes.
According to Makhlouf, a more accurate gauge of family planning policies would be the "total fertility rate". Makhlouf said that the fact that the "TFR is not rising is a good indication in itself."
In fact, the total fertility rate is 3.5, which is not considered statistically different from the 3.6 measured for the period 1993-1995.
The national target, however, is that each couple should "replace" themselves by 2017, meaning couples should have an average of two children. Currently, the 14 million families living in Egypt have an average of 4.9 members each.
A study conducted in 2000 by RAND, a non-profit US think-tank, suggested that reaching a replacement fertility level, which RAND predicted would happen by 2026, would increase both per capita income and each person's water quota by 18 per cent. Other benefits are that 2.4 per cent fewer jobs will need to be created and the number of primary students will drop by 3.8 million, which will allow the government to provide better quality education.
Many experts, however, question whether a replacement level will ever be reached, and whether it will actually pull down population growth. Demographers warn that it is much easier to bring down the fertility rate from 7 to 3.5, as was the case in the early stages of family planning programmes, than from 3.5 to the target of two. A recent survey by the US Population Reference Bureau (PRB) predicts that perhaps "two children will never be the norm".
Sanaa El-A'asar, secretary-general of the non-governmental Cairo Family Planning Association, agreed. "Social norms will, of course, be an obstacle because a child is culturally regarded as a family and financial asset. At the same time, even if we reach the replacement level, the population will continue to grow for at least another 20-25 years."
The reason, El-A'asar explained, is that Egypt's population is predominantly young, which promises future population growth, even when fertility rates drop to two. According to the CAPMAS census, over one third of the population (37.8 per cent) is under 15, while 40.6 per cent are of childbearing age (between 15 and 40).
"There will be more young people entering their child-bearing years, and thus, the total number of births can still go up even when women are having fewer children," El-A'asar explained.
The natural result of all this is an enormous workforce. Already, according to the CAPMAS census, the workforce has risen from an estimated 19.6 million in January 2002 to an estimated 20.1 million this year.
Employment experts warn that the economy is growing too slowly -- at 4.4-5 per cent annually -- to keep pace with the annual 2.6 per cent increase in the labour force. CAPMAS suggests that 1.9 million people are currently unemployed, a figure experts say is far lower than reality.
The PRB's 2002 World Population Data Sheet presents a bleaker picture. For one thing, it estimates Egypt's current population at 71.2 million, and predicts increases up to 96 million by 2025 and 115 million by 2050.
Social development and gender expert, Iman Bibars, told the Weekly that "current family planning policies are definitely missing the point." Bibars has conducted 12 studies -- mostly in Upper Egypt where fertility rates remain high (an average of 4.5 according to RAND) -- to assess family planning programmes. "Good services are there, contraceptives are available, but awareness is not," Bibars said.
"People know all about contraceptives, but they just don't want to use them due to certain cultural norms," said Bibars. "Attitudes and practices have not changed at all, particularly in Upper Egypt, and a lot of effort should be directed at identifying why people there are resisting family planning."
According to El-A'asar, the right approach is not to "always focus on pushing women to swallow more contraceptives". El-A'asar said that even though high fertility rates are traditionally blamed for hindering economic development, as well as reducing the quality of life and access to education, nutrition, employment, resources and potable water, "it's about time we shift focus to improving demographic characteristics so that overpopulation will be an asset rather than a curse."
Al-A'asar's association -- Cairo's largest family planning facility -- now focusses on empowering women, increasing awareness, and facilitating small enterprises to help improve family income. "In this way," said El-A'asar, "we also reduce school dropouts and child labour. Plus, when women are busy working, they tend to have fewer children and increase the space between births."
"Family planning alone cannot be the answer," said Makhlouf. "More efforts should be exerted on the economic side."
