Watching from the wings
By
Salama A Salama
Control of Iraqi oil plays a central role in the game of nations that is currently unfolding. It is an integral factor in the military movements, diplomatic clashes and secret or public conflicts that game comprises. In terms of proven reserves Iraq possesses the second largest in the world and oil constitutes the grand prix of the political contest that threatens to engulf the entire Middle East. It is because of oil that such an extraordinary amount of attention is being paid to assessing, and perhaps reformulating, the political map of the region and, by extension, of the world.
In a detailed report that was published recently in Le Monde Iraq's oil reserves were estimated to be around 112 billion barrels, 35 billion of which are immediately accessible for pumping. Conflicts and affiliations among no less than 40 oil companies have progressed in tandem with military preparations and political manoeuvrings; some of these companies, indeed, comprise powerful multinational empires in their own right. Exon Mobil and Chevron Texaco, two companies that originate in the US and that currently operate in Kuwait, are already prepared to cross the border the moment Washington takes control of Iraq.
To compete with American companies a kind of French-Russian consortium has emerged. According to Le Monde, quoting a recent study on Deutsche Bank, some six Russian companies are vying for a slice of the business. Next in line are oil companies from Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, China, Japan, Australia, Britain, Italy and Spain. Only two companies -- one Russian, Lokwal; one French, Totale -- are currently in possession of agreements, approved by Baghdad, and sanctioning the exploitation of some 25 per cent of Iraq's known oil reserves. The position of these two companies is certainly not coincidental to the stands adopted by their relevant governments.
It is hardly worth mentioning that, in the case of an American intervention, the scales are likely to tilt in favour of American companies, disadvantaging the Russian and French competition. It is no secret that French companies, which have had a presence in Iraq since 1927, had signed agreements with Baghdad following the 1992 Gulf War to resume their activities in Iraq as soon as UN economic sanctions are lifted. The same is true of Russian companies. Baghdad had concluded overly generous arrangements with companies from the two countries, the report indicated, the Iraqi decision being dictated by political rather than economic reasons.
Now that both France and Russia have been guaranteed a share of the hugely lucrative oil cake by Washington many commentators expect to see a major shift in the two countries position vis-à-vis any American led attack on Iraq. Nor should what looks like an inevitable shift in the Franco-Russian position be ignored by Arabs who, as the world's disinherited orphans, will once again be sidelined, watching from the wings as events unfold, governed solely by crude self- interests.
