The 15th Arab summit, a one-day meeting on the Iraq crisis held in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm El-Sheikh last weekend, concluded its work by calling for a peaceful outcome to the crisis, setting up a special Arab committee to intervene directly with all sides. Al-Ahram Weekly staff were there

Twin routes to an uncertain peace

With some Arab states trying to secure a peaceful end to the Iraq standoff by encouraging Saddam to go into exile, others are pursuing a deal with the UN. Dina Ezzat reports from Sharm El-Sheikh

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Amr Moussa; top Iraqi officials Ibrahim and Ramadan; the UAE delegation which proposed an initiative asking Saddam to step down; Palestinian leader Arafat giving his speech from Ramallah

Later today, members of the special committee on Iraq formed by the Sharm El-Sheikh Arab Summit are expected to arrive in New York for talks with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and chief UN weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohamed El-Baradei. The committee includes the foreign ministers of the Arab Summit troika of Lebanon, Bahrain and Tunisia, the foreign ministers of Egypt and Syria and the secretary- general of the Arab League.

"This visit comes at a crucial time. It comes in the wake of an Arab summit that stipulated in no uncertain terms the Arabs' rejection of war against Iraq and almost on the eve of a crucial UN Security Council meeting that will receive an updated report from the weapons inspectors," said Hisham Youssef, official spokesman for Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa.

The formation of the committee on Iraq has been hailed by some commentators as the only practical thing to have come out of last weekend's summit. According to such commentators, the summit's final communiqué does not go beyond rhetoric, and, aside from setting up the committee, it only states the Arabs' opposition to war, saying that Arab countries will not participate. While this is technically true, there is nevertheless a huge US military presence in almost all the Arab Gulf states.

Critics also charge that the communiqué does not sufficiently blame the US for seeking a war that will destabilise the entire Arab region. "It fails to name the US as a violator of international legitimacy, since it plans to attack a sovereign nation away from the umbrella of the UN. To make things worse, the US is lining up new disarmament demands without giving Baghdad credit for months of cooperation with the UN arms inspectors," argued one Iraqi diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity.

The mandate of the committee, according to the interpretation offered by Arab sources of the text of the summit resolution, is to seek a deal between Iraq and the UN by which war becomes less likely or can be avoided altogether.

"This is what the committee is going to do. In New York, and also possibly in some Western capitals, the committee is going to seek an answer to a very basic question: what is it specifically that Iraq has to do to get off the hook? The committee will then take this answer, provided that it meets the requirements of international legitimacy and the mandate of UN Resolution 1441, to Iraq to seek further and more intensive cooperation," Youssef explained.

According to the Arab League and member states of the committee, it could make a difference in the international approach towards the Iraq crisis over the coming few weeks. Syria, the only Arab member of the UN Security Council, especially supports the committee in this role.

"We have made a difference before when we encouraged Baghdad to accept the return of inspectors last September. This shifted the entire process from the military track being aggressively pursued by the US to the diplomatic track. I believe we can try and make this difference again today," Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa told reporters.

For Moussa, as for all Arab foreign ministers on the committee, "it is never too late to try and avert war. This is our mission and we will continue it". Nevertheless, with over 200,000 US and British troops now in the Gulf region, some Arab commentators have argued that the committee has no chance of changing the course of events now. "The committee might be too little too late, and we might have passed the point of no return," agreed one Arab diplomat.

However, other commentators and diplomats believe that the committee could at least delay war for a few more weeks, buying time and making it difficult for the US to proceed with war. The committee's timetable and functioning are not yet clear.

"You have to realise that it is almost unprecedented in Arab diplomacy that a committee is formed in less than 48 hours and that its mission is pursued within the week of its inception. This shows the sense of urgency that most Arab states are according to the Iraq crisis," an Arab League source said. "Time is very tight and we are racing to stop the first bullet from being fired," he added.

Members of the Arab committee might meet with the foreign ministers of the permanent and non-permanent members of the UN Security Council if the 7 March session on Iraq at UN Headquarters in New York is held at ministerial level. If not, committee members may move from New York to Washington, and then to Paris and other Western capitals, or back to the Middle East to brief the heads of member states on the mission to New York before taking off to Baghdad for a meeting with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

The meeting between members of the committee and Saddam Hussein may be overshadowed by the support offered by Bahrain, current chair of the Arab summit, to an initiative circulated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) calling on Saddam to relinquish power in order to avert war.

"This might cast a shadow over the anticipated meeting, but at the end of the day everybody knows that most of the Gulf countries, if not all of them, would not mind seeing the Iraqi president step down," commented one Arab source. "However, the fact that the Arab League secretary-general did not accord any attention to this initiative during the summit, and that he was attacked for doing so, will give credibility to the mandate of the committee in Baghdad," he added.

Arab League sources insist that when the committee arrives in Baghdad it will not bring up the UAE initiative with the Iraqi president. "This is simply out of the question. First of all, the initiative was not officially presented to the summit, it was just a letter sent from the UAE president to the king of Bahrain, who is currently chairing the summit. The issue was not pursued during the meetings by the UAE delegation, so in a sense this was a mere footnote," said one source.

"Also, the committee is going to be working in accordance with parameters set by UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which does not in any way suggest interference in the sovereign affairs of Iraq," he added.

The UAE initiative is a four-point proposal based on satisfying US pressure for the removal of Saddam Hussein by encouraging him to go into exile within two weeks in return for adequate privileges and guarantees. The initiative proposes that a joint UN-Arab League administration rule Iraq for an interim period post-Saddam, during which time the different political parties could set up a government of national unity.

In his statement before the summit, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa mentioned that there was "a letter from the UAE president", but he did not read it. The decision not to give space to the UAE proposal was "not just Moussa's decision; it was a move made on the basis of consultations. Many of the participating heads of states, particularly President Hosni Mubarak, had insisted that it is not within the mandate of the Arab Summit to interfere in the internal affairs of Iraq," commented one source.

As a result, the initiative was circulated to the press by the UAE delegation. During the summit's first session, members of the delegation complained that their initiative was being inadequately treated. Some summit participants suggested that members of the Iraqi delegation had threatened that if the initiative was referred to they would walk out of the meeting and call for the removal of the president of the UAE.

By the time the summit had concluded its work, UAE minister of information, Mohamed Bin Zaiyed, was addressing reporters in an angry tone about the failure of "the Arab League and Arab states to show the required courage to deal with this daring initiative". According to Bin Zaiyed, the fact that the initiative asks Saddam Hussein and his clique to go within two weeks is an indicator of the urgency of the situation. "We will not be able to hold the horses for very long. The US and the UK are about to attack. We have to act to stop this war".

It was false to speak of setting precedents for the removal of an Arab head of state, Bin Zaiyed said. "There is no other Arab leader like Saddam Hussein. No other Arab leader has inflicted as much harm upon his own people and the entire Arab region as Saddam."

He said that the UAE had sounded out the initiative with a number of states, including some Arab countries. "We got support on the record from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. We got support from many other Arab states, but on a background basis. It is unfortunate that behind closed doors Arabs keep wishing for Saddam to resign, but when some brave Arab leader proposes that this matter should be seriously considered, they shy away from it," Bin Zaiyed said.

During the summit, no Arab official went on record in support of the UAE initiative. When asked about it during the early part of the meeting, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faissal did not indicate any particular stance. "This is not exactly an initiative. These are a set of ideas that are being proposed for consultation by the summit," Al-Faissal said, adding that he was sure though that Sheikh Zaiyed would not propose something harmful to Arab interests.

Apart from members of the Iraqi delegation no Arab official criticised the initiative. The most that was said against it was a statement by Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher, who argued that it is not for the Arab Summit to interfere in Iraqi internal affairs.

As the Arab summit committee was making plans to start its diplomatic mission in New York, the UAE was indicating that it will stick by its stance. The UAE took the initiative to a foreign ministers meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that concluded in the Qatari capital Doha on Monday. The initiative was warmly welcomed by Kuwait, arch-enemy of the current Iraqi ruler, who invaded Kuwaiti territory in 1990.

It was given a more subtle welcome by both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, the other three members of the GCC asking for time to consult with their capitals. The UAE delegation to the emergency summit of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) was expected to re-propose the initiative.

Whether the Arab committee set up at the summit, or the initiative proposed by the UAE, will succeed in bringing a peaceful end to the Iraq crisis is not yet clear. Arab officials are insisting that Saddam is unlikely simply to pack up and go, one official saying that "he would rather stay in Baghdad and fight his battle to the end."

"Saddam cannot respond favourably to this initiative, and he has already turned a deaf ear to similar calls made in a more covert way by Saudi Arabia and other Arab and non-Arab capitals," he said.

The Arab summit committee is also faced with an uncertain future. It may succeed in its work if the US decides to make demands that Saddam Hussein can agree to. However, it almost certainly will not if the US makes tough demands that Saddam cannot accept.