The answer is 'no'
The decision to prevent US troops from deploying in Turkey has thrown war plans against Iraq into disarray, reports
Gareth Jenkins from Istanbul
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Taking sides: An opposition MP holds a sign that reads "no to war" ahead of Turkey's parliamentary debate on Saturday
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The Turkish parliament has delivered a stunning rebuke both to Washington and its own government by refusing to endorse a motion to allow US troops to deploy through Turkey on their way into northern Iraq as part of the expected American campaign to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. Saturday's vote not only represents a severe setback for Washington's plans to launch a two-pronged assault against Baghdad but has raised questions about the life expectancy of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (JDP) government, just four months after it swept to power in an electoral landslide.
The decision to put the motion before parliament came at the end of three months of hard-fought negotiations with the US over the financial compensation that Turkey could expect in return for supporting Washington's military campaign against Saddam. US military planners argue that opening a second front from northern Iraq would both shorten the war and reduce American casualties.
Opinion polls suggest that 94 per cent of the Turkish people are opposed to Washington's plans to use force to oust Saddam. But privately Turkish government officials have long insisted that Ankara had no choice but to support the US, not only to safeguard its strategic relationship with Washington and ensure continued access to IMF funds, but also in order to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq. In addition to allowing US troops to transit through Turkey, the motion presented to parliament on Saturday also foresaw the deployment of Turkish troops into northern Iraq.
Going into the vote, JDP leaders had been confident of victory, trusting that the $30 billion financial compensation package they were close to concluding with the US would be sufficient to quell any qualms about the morality of Washington's military campaign. The JDP has a massive majority, accounting for 363 seats in the 550-seat unicameral parliament. On Saturday morning, JDP leader Tayyip Erdogan organised an informal vote amongst the party's MPs that indicated a mere handful would oppose the motion.
But when the motion was actually presented to parliament, it passed by only 264-250, with 19 abstentions, leaving the government three votes short of the constitutional requirement of a majority of those who participated in the vote.
Although clearly shaken, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul insisted that parliament's decision would not harm Turkey's relationship with the US. "Turkey and the US were friends before the problem with Iraq and they will be friends after Iraq," he said.
But privately, US officials are furious.
On Saturday evening, Gul refused to be drawn on whether or not the government would risk putting the issue to the vote again. But by Monday government officials were predicting that they simply could not risk another defeat. "If we lose a second vote then we shall have to resign," said one.
Nevertheless, the vote was greeted with elation by many ordinary Turks. On Saturday, as parliament debated the motion, an estimated 100,000 people staged an anti-war rally in Ankara, carrying placards denouncing the Bush administration and declaring "Yankee Go Home!"
"I'm so happy," said Fatma, a 26-year-old lawyer. "For the first time in my life I am actually proud of our parliament for defying America and showing that Turkey cannot be bought, even for $30 billion."
The defeat could not have come at a worse time for Erdogan. Banned from standing in the November 2002 elections which brought the JDP to power, Erdogan is a candidate in by- elections in the south-eastern town of Siirt on 9 March. Until recently he was expected to win a seat in parliament and then replace Gul as prime minister. But he now faces the prospect of taking over the premiership at a time when his party is in tatters and his own reputation severely damaged by his inability to control the 98 MPs who failed to vote for the government last Saturday.
In addition to the political humiliation, the JDP also faces the prospect of another economic recession. The government had been relying on the compensation package from the US to try to reduce Turkey's yawning budget deficit. On Monday Gul announced a series of revenue-raising measures, including increases in indirect taxation. But few expect the measures to be able to bridge the gap. In fact, many fear that they will only stifle growth and exacerbate the economic downturn expected when war finally breaks out.
The parliamentary vote also appears to have fuelled a looming crisis in northern Iraq. Turkey already has a 5,000-strong brigade stationed virtually permanently in the region. The news that the motion allowing around 40,000 Turkish troops to be deployed abroad had been defeated was greeted with jubilation by the Iraqi Kurds. On Monday tens of thousands of Kurds staged anti-Turkish protests in the northern Iraqi city of Arbil, burning Turkish flags and vowing to launch a guerrilla war if Turkey tried to increase its military presence. Many carried placards accusing Ankara of seeking to occupy northern Iraq and equating Turkey with the regime of Saddam Hussein.
Despite last Saturday's vote, the US is still expected to deploy forces into northern Iraq, but only relatively small numbers of lightly- armed airborne troops. Similarly, once hostilities begin, the Turkish military is unlikely to sit back and wait to see whether the Iraqi Kurds attempt to establish an independent state. It already has a substantial force deployed along the border with Iraq ready to cross over at a few hours' notice. The result could be a situation in which Kurdish and American forces could find themselves confronting not just Iraqi soldiers but also Turkish troops.
