Confidence's bumpy road
Prime Minister Atef Ebeid's government got a renewed vote of confidence in parliament this week, but only after an unprecedented degree of criticism was leveled at its performance. Gamal Essam El-Din reports
For the fourth time since October 1999, Prime Minister Atef Ebeid's government managed to get a renewed vote of confidence from the People's Assembly. The vote of confidence was granted on Monday after nearly two months of intense criticism of the policy statement delivered to parliament by Ebeid on 29 December.
Critics of the prime minister -- led by a bloc of 34 opposition deputies -- had gone as far as demanding that Ebeid's government be replaced by "a coalition or a national salvation government".
During his appearance at the assembly on Monday, Ebeid seemed determined to avoid a clash with the opposition bloc. His statement was short, and focused mainly on three thorny issues: democratisation and political reform; softening the damage a war in Iraq will wreak on the national economy; and dealing with criticism of the abrupt 29 January decision to float the Egyptian pound.
On the issue of political reform, Ebeid described his government's achievements as "unprecedented". The prime minister said his government was "in the process of broadening the scope of political reform and I'm sure that Egypt is capable of becoming a beacon of democracy in the entire Arab world".
Amongst the bright points mentioned by Ebeid: Egypt's real multi-party system; a deep-rooted freedom of speech; and a steadily growing civil society. "There is a marked increase in the number of political parties, while the number of magazines and newspapers has reached an unprecedented 416... more than 14,000 civil organisations are now functioning in a climate of total freedom," Ebeid said. The prime minister was also keen to heap praise on recent NDP initiatives aimed at abolishing supreme state security courts and the hard labour penalty, and setting up a national council for human rights, calling them "a bold step... to be followed by many others, with a concentration on encouraging women to play a more active role in political life".
Opposition delegates, however, did not share Ebeid's enthusiasm. Independent MP Hamdeen Sabahi said, "democracy requires basic conditions in order to prosper, and these, as repeatedly demanded by the opposition, must include amending the 1971 constitution, repealing the Emergency Law and military tribunals, and modifying the 1956 Law on the exercise of political rights to bring elections under the supervision of a higher judicial committee and prevent the Interior Ministry from manipulating them." Sabahi said that because Ebeid's government is ignoring these demands, the opposition is calling for the creation of "a national salvation government" which would better pursue goals of democratisation and find a way out of the stifling economic crisis.
Moving on to foreign affairs, Ebeid said Egypt is doing its best to save Iraq from the perils of war. In any case, he also claimed that the government has become quite experienced in countering external shocks. "We were stunningly successful in the face of the economic and political jitters of the 1991 Gulf War and the 11 September attacks," said Ebeid.
The prime minister admitted that the government is expecting huge numbers of Egyptians working in Iraq and some Gulf countries to be forced back home. "It is quite difficult to give an exact count regarding the number of expected returnees, but we have prepared ourselves to ensure that most of them safely return to Egypt via Jordan," Ebeid said. He also admitted that the war in Iraq would lead to a plunge in tourist traffic, a rise in the budget deficit, and a slide in hard currency revenues. To rise up to these challenges, Ebeid said the government has turned to the World Bank, asking for a $1 billion loan. "We will also be working towards the implementation of the Egypt-EU (European Union) Partnership Agreement in order to boost our exports to Europe."
Ebeid declined to verify reported claims that the war in Iraq will cost Egypt between $6-8 billion in lost hard currency revenues. Many MPs expressed their dissatisfaction with the fact that Ebeid's government had not prepared a detailed study revealing exactly how the national economy will be affected.
Ebeid ended his appearance with a discussion of the thorniest issue of the day: the abrupt decision to float the Egyptian pound. While Zakaria Azmi, a prominent NDP MP, described it "as the most courageous economic decision in many years," opposition MPs like Abul-Ezz El- Hariri said the decision was completely unsound and premature, aimed solely at laying the groundwork to support a high- ranking delegation that went to Washington last month to negotiate a free trade agreement with the US. Ayman Nour, an independent MP, argued that, "it was shameful for Ebeid to declare its decision to float the national currency at a [conference sponsored by] a British economic institution [The Economist magazine] rather than in front of parliament."
Ebeid cited three primary reasons behind the decision: that all previous efforts aimed at stabilising the pound proved futile ("In the end, we had no option but to move in this direction."); the recent and steady drop in the value of most international currencies against the dollar ("In light of this fact, it was necessary and logical to follow suit by devaluing the pound to keep our exports cheap and protect the country from being flooded by imports"); and the government's willingness to shore up the national currency by pumping millions of dollars into the market.
Ebeid said the decision to float the pound might not have coincided with the interests of a bunch of speculators, who have been doing their utmost since then to retain an upper hand in market affairs. "We are going to deal with them with an iron fist," said Ebeid, "and make sure that hard currency revenues from tourism and exports do find their way into the market."
