Jordan's precarious juxtaposition
War in Iraq and a subsequent reordering of power in the region have Jordanians anxious about what comes next, writes Lola Keilani in Amman
Jordanians seem at a loss as to how to deal with the expected United States-led war on Iraq, and their concerns have two prominent dimensions. For many of Palestinian origin in Jordanian society, the war will be a death blow to aspirations for an end to Israel's occupation of the West Bank and Gaza and for statehood. They see the sought-for elimination of Iraq as a military power and Saddam Hussein's regime in Baghdad as serving Israeli interests, since it would remove a steady source of support for their struggle. Ibrahim Al-Kaylani, chairman of the Ulama Council and former minister of religious affairs, shares the opinion. "There are grand, sinister motives behind the American plans for war against Iraq," he told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The US wants to eliminate Iraq's military power as a potential threat to Israel, and Baghdad's support for the Palestinian and Muslim causes," he argued.
Al-Kaylani maintains that the US is also seeking to control Iraq's oil wealth "in order to serve American economic interests" and to ensure that Washington "can control the course of events in the international oil market". It is the duty of every Arab, and every Muslim, he said, "to resist the American plans, even with their life".
The expected substitution of Hussein's regime with a Washington-friendly government, or the insertion of a US-controlled military occupation authority in Baghdad, means the elimination of Iraq as a potential Arab threat to Israel, and this would in turn lead to Israel's domination of the Middle East. Jordanians believe that the whole war scenario is partly aimed at clearing the ground for Israel to impose its version of a peace agreement on the Palestinians, which would have no room for statehood.
In an interview with the Weekly, Abdul-Latif Arabiyyat, head of the Shura Council of the Islamic Action Front, suggested that the planned US-led war is not simply against Iraq, but against Islam itself. "The Americans want to impose their hegemony on the region and they are seeking to control Iraq as the first step towards dominating the region," he said. Arabiyyat, who served as elected speaker of parliament for several years in the 1990s, argues that the issue of Palestine cannot be divorced from that of war in Iraq. "The aim is to deny the Palestinians their legitimate right to independence and statehood."
Beyond Israeli hegemony, Jordanians also fear that a war will lead to the suspension of Iraqi oil flow to Jordan. Iraq supplies up to five million tons of crude oil and oil products to the kingdom; half of it is given free of charge, and the other half is supplied at a discounted price of $19 a barrel. Officials estimate that Jordan stands to lose up to $1.2 billion a year in the event of a war against Iraq. This would include the loss in the oil sector and exports to Iraq, as well as the oil-for-food programme operated by the United Nations. This is in addition to the potential loss of tourism revenues.
Parallel to popular anger against US moves to wage war in Iraq is the fear that the government of King Abdullah would have little alternative but to accept a US request, if made, for use of Jordanian territory for military strikes against Iraq. Abdullah, along with Prime Minister Ali Abul-Ragheb and other senior officials, have repeatedly said that Jordan would not allow itself to be used for war against Iraq. However, the popular perception is that Amman, which is heavily dependent on the US both militarily and economically, would not be able to flatly refuse a pointed American request. At the same time, Washington must be aware of the potential danger facing Jordan's ruling family if Jordan allows its facilities to be used in a war against Iraq. On 27 February, Abul- Ragheb affirmed that until now, the US has not made any requests, and officials have indicated that they do not expect any.
Indeed, it was concerned that popular anger would destabilise the country which played a key factor in the late King Hussein's decision to stay away from the anti-Iraq coalition during the 1991 Gulf War. The potential for such unrest has only grown graver since then, given that Jordanians and Palestinians are deeply frustrated over Israel's backtracking on the Oslo agreements and the brutal military crackdown on the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. The government is also locked in a running conflict with hard-liners -- represented by the influential professional associations -- who reject the 1994 peace treaty Jordan signed with Israel.
The leadership realises that it would be a mistake to deny people an outlet to vent their frustration and anger, which may explain why public demonstrations have been allowed to take place despite a ban that remains in force. The demonstration ban was imposed shortly after the outbreak of the Intifada in September 2000, which led to massive solidarity marches in Jordan that were seen by officials to pose threats to the security situation. The government has consistently turned down requests for permission to hold rallies since then, but has relaxed its position in recent weeks.
It is a foregone conclusion that massive demonstrations will erupt in Jordan should the US launch a war against Iraq. Jordanian volunteers have offered themselves as human shields to defend Iraq, and dozens of non-governmental organisations are drawing up plans to help the people of Iraq and to tackle the expected flow of some 70,000 Iraqis into the kingdom across the border, which, according remarks from the prime minister last week, will remain open when the war is launched.
Fears are also high that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is waiting for the start of the war to implement a "transfer plan" to expel Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and thousands of Palestinians across the Jordan River to the East Bank. Opinion is divided here over that possibility. Some say that the security and stability of Jordan is important for Israel, and Sharon would not undermine the kingdom with a massive expulsion of Palestinians to the East Bank. The leadership is also counting on the US to preempt that possibility. At the same time, many believe that a post-war situation in the Middle East would dilute Israeli and American concerns about ensuring the security and stability of Jordan. Saleh Armouti, head of the Jordan Bar Association, the main body organising activities in support of Iraq, expects the Americans to follow up on the war against Iraq by targeting Syria and other Arab countries that depart from the US line, as well as Iran. Armouti, who has led several "solidarity" marches in support of Iraq, has visited Baghdad along with thousands of leading pro-Iraq activists. "They [the US] are seeking to reshape the Arab region to suit American and Israeli interests," he told the Weekly. "They don't care for Arab and Muslim sentiments and interests."
If that is the case, all bets are off that Sharon would hold himself back from a mass expulsion, or that the US would restrain him from doing so. Concerns are also high that subversive groups such as Osama Bin Laden's Al-f and other militant factions might seek to exploit the chaos of war to threaten the security and stability of Jordan by carrying out sabotage in the kingdom, including attacks on diplomats.
