The cost of reconciliation
Powell's visit raises Turkish hopes, but may come at a price, Gareth Jenkins reports from Ankara
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Villagers in Dagyani throw eggs at a vehicle carrying US military experts in Sanliurfa, southeastern Turkey, just days before Colin Powell's arrival in Ankara
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US Secretary of State Colin Powell paid a surprise visit to Turkey on Tuesday, raising hopes in Ankara of a thaw in relations with Washington and a renewed offer of financial aid at a time of increasing public disenchantment with the Turkish government and the first signs of an impending economic crisis.
Relations between Washington and Ankara nose-dived early last month when the Turkish parliament refused to allow 62,000 US troops to transit Turkey on their way to northern Iraq to open a second front in the military campaign against Saddam Hussein. The decision followed weeks of increasingly fractious haggling as Turkish officials tried to squeeze as much money as possible out of the US in return for the transit rights, and even allowed the US to begin work on a $350 million upgrade of military facilities in Turkey before turning around and refusing to allow the Americans to use them.
Powell arrived in Ankara on Tuesday evening and was due to hold a series of meetings with high-ranking Turkish officials on Wednesday. On Monday State Department officials played down suggestions that Powell would ask Turkey for military assistance in the war against Iraq, preferring to describe the trip as an opportunity to repair relations. "It's a kiss and make up visit," said one US official.
On Tuesday Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul also denied any knowledge of whether Powell would ask for Turkey's help in the Iraq war. But the Turkish financial markets remained convinced that Powell would come with a request for some kind of military assistance related to the war against Iraq and might even offer money.
In late February US had offered over $30 billion in grants and loans in return for Turkey allowing American troops to deploy through Turkey into northern Iraq. But that offer was withdrawn as soon as the motion to allow US troops onto Turkish soil was rejected by the Turkish parliament. Last week President George Bush asked Congress to approve $1 billion in aid to Turkey. But, with anti-Turkish feeling in Washington still running high, it is far from a foregone conclusion that Congress will approve the request. Even if it does, the amount still falls far short of the amount that Turkey needs if it is to avoid a major financial crisis later this year.
Turkey faces debt repayments of $93 billion this year, which is equivalent to approximately half of its annual Gross National Product. The government of the Islamist Justice and Development Party (JDP) had factored the expectation of a massive US aid package into its budget calculations for 2003. Under the revised budget proposals announced last weekend, the government will have to raise $10 billion in extra taxes and implement deep spending cuts in order to balance its books. Even if it can roll over its debts, the government is likely to face very high financing costs on the international market, which will postpone rather than solve its mounting debt crisis. Before the announcement of the Powell visit, investors had begun to talk openly of a possible debt default in the second half of this year.
An improvement in Turkish-US relations would undoubtedly reassure international investors and thus reduce the risk of a debt default. But any improvement is likely to come at the cost of some form of military assistance to the US in its war against Iraq, which would further erode the Turkish government's already battered image at home.
Opinion polls still show that over 94 per cent of the Turkish public oppose the US-led war against Iraq. Since the war began the opposition is increasingly turning to anger as television news shows images of suffering Iraqi civilians.
Since it swept to power in November last year, the popularity of the JDP government has rapidly unraveled. While Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, the former mayor of Istanbul whose long struggle with the country's secular establishment had endowed him with almost messianic status amongst devout Turks, has often looked out of touch and out of his depth.
During the election campaign Erdogan repeatedly promised to purge the Turkish political system of the corruption and nepotism. But once in power, he shelved plans to limit MPs' parliamentary immunity, tried to make public contracts less transparent and appointed a string of friends and associates to high-ranking positions in the government bureaucracy. On Sunday he appointed two old friends to head the country's two largest state banks.
While Erdogan's policy towards the US military campaign against Iraq has alienated many amongst even his own supporters who had hoped for a more principled stand from someone who had carefully cultivated a reputation for personal piety.
"I thought that, unlike the other politicians, he would at least be honest and stand up for what was right," said one JDP party worker who asked not to be named. "But now he is in power he is rewarding all of his friends just like the others did. On Iraq he first tried to sell Turkish support for the war and then, after he had got a promise of a lot of money, he couldn't even control our own MPs and persuade parliament to allow the American soldiers to come here. The best I can say about him is that he is incompetent."
