Democracy by B-52
What will the Arab world look like when the smoke clears in the aftermath of the US aggression on Iraq, Dina Ezzat asks
"I'm so tired of the news. It's so frustrating. I can't believe that we are leaving the Iraqis to this -- that we are allowing Iraq to become another Palestine. Do you want to listen to Umm Kulthoum?" asked Mohamed Hussein, a 50- year-old taxi driver, before he switched the radio from a news bulletin to music.
Hussein, like many other Egyptians, is embittered by the scenes of death and destruction brought to his living room each evening by television.
"They must think we're fools if they expect us to believe they are doing this for the sake of the Iraqi people. I just hope that Egypt will not face a similar fate. Let's talk about Umm Kulthoum, politics is very frustrating."
Hussein's aggravation is shared by many Arab officials. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa is one of them. "Absolutely. The current situation is very frustrating. This aggression against Iraq is totally uncalled for. It must be stopped, or else we'll all suffer the negative consequences -- and when I say 'all of us' I mean not only the Middle East, but elsewhere," Moussa said.
According to the head of the Arab League, Arabs are enraged -- primarily with the United States -- when they see Iraqis dying on a daily basis because of the military assault. "Since the outset of the aggression, we have not seen a single Iraqi go up to a US or British soldier with a rose. What we've seen is resistance," Moussa said. "They said they will bring development and democracy, but all we have seen is destruction. Tomahawks and B-52s. Can democracy and development be delivered on the wings of a B-52?" The league head went on to predict that "after everything we've seen in Iraq" the Arab people would put little stock in US promises.
Under such circumstances, Moussa said, the Arabs should trust their leaders; if those leaders are US-imposed, then trust will always be lacking and havoc will prevail.
In the meantime, Arab diplomats harbour little hope that the war will end soon. "No. The Americans will not stop this war. They have no reason to seek a truce now. The only reason for them to do so would be to stem the huge costs of the war -- that's the kind of thing that would make them seek an exit," commented a diplomat from the Gulf.
During the past few days, Washington dismissed several offers for a truce. The first was a proposal by the Saudis to end hostilities and provide for a limited return of inspectors and the presence of an international peace-keeping force. The second was an attempt to have the UN Security Council pass a sort of a compromise resolution to end the war.
Many Arab diplomats, when providing off- the-record background to journalists, offer that there is little point to attempting to halt the war, saying it will only end when the Americans want it to or are forced into concluding it. "What we need to do now is to think about the day after," commented one.
In response to Arab calls for the US to halt its war against Iraq, US State Department Spokesman Richard Boucher said Arab countries should know that the campaign will not end short of a complete US victory. Boucher advised the Arabs to focus on life after the war.
Arab predictions for the aftermath of the conflict are predominantly negative. Many diplomats and commentators say that the divisiveness marring Arab relations before the war will be transformed into "gulfs of mistrust and vengeance". This lack of inter-Arab trust would further hinder efforts to reform the Arab League, which has often been weakened by Arab disputes.
"The regional Arab order and the Arab League will be the first victims of this unjustified aggression against Iraq," commented Nabih Berri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament.
Diplomats who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly anticipate years of bad blood among Arab states. An Egyptian diplomat offered, "Once the Iraqis' suffering ends, and this appears likely to continue for years in view of the destruction we are seeing, it will take them decades to forget their misery, which was only made possible because some Arab states agreed to facilitate and practically take part in the war. We will be caught in a vicious cycle of vengeance and divisiveness."
Moussa concedes that when the war is over a hard look needs to be taken at the Arab League's role and prospects, "But now is not the right time for this reassessment."
However, a weak Arab order is not Arab officials' worst fear. Among their greater worries is that Iraq will prove to be only the first on a list of Arab countries that Washington takes to task. "It's no secret that Syria is in jeopardy, Libya is in jeopardy, Sudan is in jeopardy and maybe even Lebanon, too," commented a Lebanese diplomat. He added, "We all know that the hawks in and around the US administration, particularly those manipulated by Israel, are urging harsh policies towards all Arab states and military action against many of them."
This fear is far from unfounded. During the past week, both the US secretary of defence and the secretary of state issued warnings against Syria for allegedly assisting Iraq during the current war. A few weeks ago, a CIA report presented to US Congress suggested that Syria, Libya and possibly Sudan are attempting to obtain weapons of mass destruction.
In a recent interview, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who has made no secret of his opposition to war, argued that Arab countries have to face the fact that Iraq may not be the only target of US military aggression. Al- Assad argued the need to continue opposing the war -- not just for the sake of the Iraqi people, but for that of other Arab countries as well. "We will not wait until we become the next target," he said.
One obvious risk for all, or at least most, Arab countries is the attenuation of the imbalance existing on the strategic level between Israel and the Arabs -- an imbalance felt most acutely by Israel's neighbours.
Israeli officials might be keeping silent now, but in the days and weeks leading to the current military aggression, they made no secret that they welcomed a war against Iraq.
In recent opinion articles carried by the English edition of the Israeli daily Ha'aretz, many commentators have been arguing that the war is in Israel's favour and will pave the way for massive foreign aid packages. Furthermore, they opined, it will legitimise retaliation against potential terrorism threats.
Worse, some Israeli commentators have argued that with the US occupying Iraq, Washington will be in no position to ask Israel to end its occupation of Arab states.
And, in the words of former US Assistant Secretary of State Edward Walker, "The most important thing [about this war] is that [it will] remove Iraq from the circle of threats to Israel."
In the analysis of many Arab officials, "crushed" is how their region will emerge from this war.
