Down but not out
This will be another annus horribilis for the tourism industry, but Jenny Jobbins reports that Egypt is still considered safe for visitors
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Positive interaction: being in touch with their hosts' cultural and social life helps tourists feel relaxed and comfortable
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When I flew from London to Cairo a few days after the Iraq war started, I was surprised to find the majority of the fellow travellers on my flight were tourists sporting straw hats, chic backpacks and cotton shirts. The shirts might not have been appropriate -- it was warmer and sunnier in London than in Cairo, and we were in for a grey and dismal arrival -- but from the jaunty garb and determined-to- enjoy-ourselves expressions one would have imagined all was as usual.
Security at Heathrow was as tight as I have ever seen it. The soles of my boots were examined, and outer garments had to go through the X-ray machine. By contrast, arrival in Cairo was relaxed, giving us the impression that we were much safer here -- as, indeed, we probably were. Egypt is playing no part in this war, and if the Tourism Ministry is braced for casualties it is not letting its visitors know.
These casualties -- as long as all goes to plan -- will be in numbers of visitor. There is, Egyptians insists, no danger to tourists here. Yet those figures will be high. The tourists who are coming in now are those who have already booked their holidays and, since Egypt has not been officially declared unsafe, stand not to be refunded if they cancel. Yet occupancy in some hotels is already only 10 per cent, and future bookings are almost at a standstill.
On 12 March Minister of Tourism Mamdouh El-Beltagui affirmed that the Egyptian government was "serious" about "restoring the usual tourism rates as soon as possible" in the case of war being launched against Iraq. He indicated that a tourism-activating programme was already in place, set to attract tourists from the top tourism-exporting countries to Egypt to help maintain the flow. He dismissed an article published in the British Sunday Telegraph concerning evacuating British tourists in case of war.
So far, this encouragement has rung true. Egypt is not taking part in any military action, and there are no military bases in Egypt. It lies far from the current turmoil although, some feel, not far enough. However, all these assurances will not add up to a row of beans if local tension erupts into violence. Since the Luxor tragedy in 1997 the authorities have spared no means to protect tourists, even providing security measures which some have described as over-the-top. Foreigners in some less frequently visited towns, for example, may be provided with a 24-hour police escort, regarded as intrusive by some but tolerated or even welcomed by others.
There is always a possibility that there might be a substantive reason behind such prudence. Threats to foreigners are not expected from the average kindly Egyptian, but from enraged individuals venting frustrations at a situation they are powerless to control. Expatriates in Cairo have so far reported increased friendliness over the past two weeks, especially in their own neighbourhoods. It is as though there is a genuine attempt to make them feel comfortable. Tourists also follow a well- trodden path, and it is unlikely that they will encounter anything more than the mild hostility which Asians or Africans meet as a matter of course when they visit the West.
Such animosity stems from unfamiliarity, and it works both ways. Many tourists are themselves guilty of insensitivity towards local people. They come to see the sites, but tend to forget that the ancient monuments are part of the country's living heritage and were not placed there just for them. They often disregard the people who live around them, even treating them as a nuisance. It does not occur to them that the people deserve as much respect as do the monuments themselves. As guests, they are obliged to interact with due politeness.
Whether or not their attitudes are balanced, and despite setbacks, tourists have still been coming. On 5 March it was announced that Egypt had achieved unprecedented visitor figures, with an average annual increase of 12 per cent between 1993 and 2000. Speaking to the members of the German- Arab Chamber of Industry and Commerce (GACIC) earlier this month, El-Beltagui said tourism was a strong and deeply-rooted industry that could overcome international crises.
Egypt, pursuing its crisis management plan, was the first country in the Middle East to regain its incoming tourism levels following 9/11, achieving an increase of 11.7 per cent in 2002. The ministry's plan would again be resorted to in case of war in Iraq, El-Beltagui said. The plan revolves around a hyperactive promotion campaign and public relation exercises to expound the safety and stability in Egypt.
Foreign missions have taken a rather more pragmatic approach. "The risk of indiscriminate terrorist attacks in public places, including tourist sites, will be especially high during military action in Iraq," the British Foreign Office advised its expatriates in the first week of the war. "You should be vigilant, take sensible precautions, be aware of local sensibilities, monitor the media, and check our Travel Advice for the country you live in or plan to visit."
Up to now the full travel advice for Egypt has remained otherwise unchanged, "We see no reason to advise against travel to Egypt, including for business or holiday reasons, but it is important for residents and visitors alike to follow the advice given, in particular on staying well away from demonstrations." This month's demonstrations have been widely reported abroad. "The British community should continue to adopt a low profile," the advice from the British Embassy continued.
Despite the reassurances, it is clear that tourism will foot the war bill. On 22 March, El-Beltagui predicted that Egyptian tourist agencies, hotels, national air companies and tourist villages would sustain losses of two billion dollars as a result of the war, besides the compensation that will be paid out to industry employees expected to be made redundant. For his part, the chairman of the Egyptian Federation of Travel Chambers, Elhami El-Zayat, said the number of foreign visitors had dropped by 40 per cent and touristic revenues were down by 50 per cent. "As soon as the weapons inspectors were ordered to leave Iraq, travel reservations stopped completely," El-Zayat said.
Red Sea resort operators deny that specific charter flights have been cancelled, but they admit fewer flights are coming in owing to lack of demand. As for future bookings, these are trickling in from British, German and Dutch individuals, but not from groups. Even before the outbreak of war several reservations were withdrawn, leading to a steep fall in occupancy of resort villages and hotels in all Red Sea resorts. One businessman said up to 90 per cent of his reservations had been cancelled. Others reported that many visitors left Sharm El-Sheikh as soon as the fighting started. Luxor witnessed a similar exodus, with an official pointing out that the city had only about 4,000 tourists in residence in the first week of the war against a usual daily figure of about 15,000.
Those in the industry who rely almost exclusively on foreign tourism, such as desert safari and dive boat owners, have for some time been resigned to putting their feet up for the duration. Others, such as resort villages, hope to exploit the trickle of domestic tourism in a bid to overcome the current crisis, especially with the Spring holiday looming.
These lean times follow hard on the heels of a minor boom. The grand total of visitors for February 2003 increased by 22 per cent compared with last year, with a total of 827,596 tourists for the period January-February. Ironically, a record number of American tourists arrived in February, an increase of 32.6 per cent over February 2002 and 40.2 per cent for the period January-February last year. The total number of tourists from the US was 5,007.
However gloomy the outlook, the rest of the region is also refusing to be kept down. Arabian Travel Market organisers Reed Exhibitions are still planning to go ahead with this year's event in Dubai in May. Exhibitors at the show will include newcomers Pakistan, South Africa, Malaysia, Kenya, Vietnam and Yemen.
Tourism in Egypt has taken many batterings in recent years, but it is not dead yet. With a new airport opening in Luxor -- as well as new docking facilities for Nile cruise boats -- and with money being poured into new museums and the restoration of monuments, it is clear the government is banking on a quick recovery.
