Mapping the future
Iraqi self-determination and pushing for action on the roadmap topped the Egyptian and Arab diplomatic agendas this week. Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty report
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Mubarak focused on post-war Iraq during talks with Jordan's Abdullah (top) and France's de Villepin
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Confident that US adventurism against Arab regimes will halt at Baghdad, Cairo is more concerned with the speedy restoration of law and order in Iraq and ensuring that the country is ruled by its people. Recently, Washington has accused Syria of possessing chemical weapons and harbouring figures from the deposed Iraqi regime. In contrast to apprehension being expressed in various Arab quarters that the regime in Damascus is the next country in the region on the US's hit list, President Hosni Mubarak said on Saturday, "It is unlikely that this [war] will be repeated; I can even confirm that this will not happen." The statement probably provoked a sigh of relief among members of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) general secretariat whom he was addressing.
In a telephone conversation with US President George W Bush on Monday, Mubarak suggested that issues pertaining to the region "should be dealt with through diplomatic channels, rather than in provocative public statements". This was a clear reference to the war of words between American and Syrian officials that raged throughout the week. On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher flatly denounced the idea that the US had any designs on Syria. "We reject threats against any Arab country; this is not the appropriate method to handle a problem -- if such a problem exists," Maher said. "There is a consensus in the Arab world and internationally on the need to avert tragedies like those witnessed in Iraq."
Mubarak's Chief Political Adviser Osama El-Baz made a similar argument, telling reporters on Monday that the US will "tarnish its image if it pursues one Arab country after another". El-Baz added, "If there is any proof against Syria, then produce it."
Maher also expressed confidence about Egypt's stability, telling reporters on Saturday that Egypt does not need "lessons from abroad" to develop its institutions of democracy. He added that "several more steps" will be taken to accelerate and revitalise political life in Egypt. Brushing aside the notion that Arab regimes may be in jeopardy if the hawks in the US administration intend to redraw the map of the Middle East and effect regime change in other countries, Cairo remained focussed on the crisis in Iraq following Saddam Hussein's sudden exit from the stage. In a meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah on Monday, Mubarak discussed how the Arabs might assist the Iraqis in selecting a government and upholding their country's sovereignty. Additional inter-Arab and regional consultations on this issue are expected in the coming days and weeks.
A six-way regional meeting is expected to be held tomorrow in Saudi Arabia between the foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iran and Turkey -- the same countries that met in Istanbul in February in a bid to avert a war. The six countries are expected to affirm the importance of maintaining Iraq's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity; ensuring the well-being of the Iraqi people and assisting them in surmounting current difficulties.
"Foreign forces must withdraw from Iraq and a new government must be formed," Maher said following the Egyptian-Jordanian talks. Jordan's Foreign Minister Marwan Al-Ma'ashar agreed. "There must be an effective Arab role conducive to the establishment of a truly representative Iraqi government. We must not depend on rhetoric alone," he said.
On Saturday, Mubarak had commented on what is seen as the failure of the Arabs, even under the umbrella of the Arab League, to assert any influence over the future of the region. He said there was no space for the Arab League to manoeuvre to avert the US-led war. "The Arab League did not fare any worse than other multilateral bodies," he said, citing the examples of the United Nations, the European Union and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, all of whom were unable to prevent the war and, so far, assume a role in the new Iraq. "None of these organisations were able to convince the US not to go to war," he said.
Asked about the Arab Joint Defence Pact, and the reasons it was not activated for Iraq, Mubarak said it lacks all the fundamental elements that would make it effective. "This would require economic cooperation, a joint military force, military exercises... none of this has happened," he said. In later statements, Mubarak suggested on Tuesday that the Arab League Charter should be revamped to be more effective. He cited the example of the rule by consensus to pass any resolution. "It is unrealistic to expect that all 22 countries will always agree," he argued. "We should have a two-thirds majority or majority vote rule."
On another ailing multilateral body, Cairo is convinced that the UN should, for the immediate future, limit its role in Iraq to providing humanitarian aid -- a view shared by Washington. "The UN's vital role is in providing humanitarian assistance," Mubarak said on Saturday. The president had expressed this view to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Friday, stressing the importance of the international body's role in providing relief for the Iraqi people. Mubarak also urged the UN to push for the creation of a new Iraqi government to run the country.
The Egyptian president said coalition forces have a responsibility to impose "law and order to protect lives and property", and stabilise the current state of "imbalance caused by decades of oppression". The coalition must also "quickly create Iraqi institutions to run Iraq," and "promptly work towards the establishment of a new Iraqi government." Speaking with Bush on Monday, Mubarak discussed the need to protect Iraqi people, property and heritage against looters. They also conferred on the matter of handing over power to Iraqis as soon as possible.
With the NDP members on Saturday, Mubarak noted, "The war is not over until the country is under control." Mubarak added his view that coalition forces should make their stay in Iraq as brief as possible, and hand over power to the Iraqis in the near future. The priority now, according to El-Baz, is to create "an Iraqi government -- not an American one". On Tuesday, Maher would not comment on the US-sponsored meeting taking place in Nasseriya among Iraqi commanders and figures of the opposition in-exile that was convened by the US administration to discuss the transitional government.
Cairo has expressed unease about the three-step process that the US has outlined for a sovereign, democratic Iraq. Step one is a period of control by US and British forces, followed by an interim Iraqi government and finally an elected Iraqi government. Cairo's primary reservations relate to plans for appointing American military advisers to the interim government, and that the composition of the transitional government will be made up primarily of formerly exiled figures from Iraqi opposition groups.
Mubarak told the NDP meeting, "Iraq must be ruled by Iraqis," cautioning that "the repercussions of military operations could be more dangerous than the war itself." The president warned of the potential for a civil war among the numerous sectarian and ethnic groups, namely, the Shi'ites, the Sunnis and Kurds, as well as the various tribes scattered about the country. Observers already fear that the current breakdown of order in Iraq could deteriorate further and spark a long and draining civil war, similar to that occurred in Lebanon after the 1982 Israeli invasion.
Even before the war against Iraq began, Cairo walked a thin line in opposing the US's call for war, while trying to stay on good terms with Washington. Once attacks were launched, Egypt continued to voice its opposition, but at the same time did not express support for Saddam Hussein. By striking such a balance, an analyst said, Cairo managed to maintain its relationship with the US. Only last week, US Congress approved a request for additional assistance to Egypt to the tune of $2.3 billion -- $300 million in grants and $2 billion in credit loans.
Cairo's strategy now is two-fold: step- up contact at all levels with Washington to convey the message, parallel to increasing communication with regional and international players as part of a global and regional effort to oppose US post-war plans in the region.
On Saturday, Mubarak held talks with French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin to discuss the dire humanitarian situation in Iraq, and both agreed that the UN should coordinate the relief effort. Egypt and France also agree on the importance of restoring security and stability in the Gulf country, respecting Iraq's sovereignty and unity and the need for the country's people to choose their government. El-Baz said there will be a joint Arab and European effort to "extricate Iraq from its miserable situation."
Speaking to reporters after the meeting, de Villepin said it was time to lift the 12-year-long sanctions on Iraq, and that the matter of its alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) should be closed once and for all. In an address to the Egyptian Council on Foreign Relations, de Villepin went a step further, saying the project of making the entire Middle East free of WMDs -- as called for by Egypt -- must be made a priority. He added that Europe, and France in particular, would be willing to lend expertise for such a project.
During the telephone conversation on Monday, Bush reassured Mubarak that the roadmap will be launched as soon as the newly appointed Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu- Mazen) forms his government. Mubarak told NDP leaders on Saturday that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is trying to "annul the contents of the roadmap" by asking for numerous amendments -- more than 100 so far. Mubarak wants Washington to "play a role in making Israel commit to implementing the roadmap". At the same time, however, he expressed dismay at the "vague" timeline after which the US said it would throw its weight behind the plan. Shortly before launching its military campaign against Iraq, Washington said it would focus on the peace process when the war against Iraq was over. "But this is an ambiguous [timeline]; no one knows when the war will end or who will decide that it is over," Mubarak said.
Nonetheless, Mubarak and King Abdullah stressed on Monday the need for a mechanism to implement the roadmap according to a specific time frame that ends with the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005. "It's time to act upon the roadmap," said Jordan's Al-Ma'ashar.
