Legends of the fall
Following the bitter collapse of Baghdad, the threats directed at Damascus have been a jarring wake-up call for the Arab public. Sherine Bahaa reports
"Forgive us Iraq" read a poster carried by an Arab woman in a massive demonstration in the Jordanian capital of Amman last Thursday, a day after the fall of Baghdad. TV cameras zoomed in on the sobbing woman as she marched through the streets.
Scenes of Saddam's statues being demolished and American tanks proceeding without resistance inside the Iraqi capital will remain vivid in the minds of millions of Arabs who watched the fall of a once-legendary Arab city.
Arabs were aware that the Iraqi armed forces could not win such a war, however they had hoped the Iraqis would be able to hold out long enough to avenge some of the humiliation that Arabs have suffered at the hands of Israel and its strong supporter, the US.
"It is a nakba (catastrophe). The Arabs have suffered three nakbas in modern history -- in 1948, 1967 and the third, on 9 April 2003. This was a shock not just for Iraq but for the whole region," political commentator Qassem Jaafar said on Al-Jazeera TV.
Mohamed Maabreh, a Saudi businessman, told BBC Radio that the worst part about watching the war in Iraq was witnessing the embarrassment of an Arab nation suffering yet another defeat. "As an Arab, I find this tragic," he explained. "I wish that all the Arab nations had stood by Iraq. Children, women and old men -- so many of them were killed."
The melancholy mood on the Arab streets has been broken by an onslaught of threats from key US officials hinting that a second Arab capital -- Damascus -- might be next on the list.
Can the American military machine turn towards Damascus so soon?
"It is very unlikely," Emad Shoeibi, professor of political science at Damascus University, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Shoeibi doubts the possibility of US military intervention in Syria for several reasons. "First, Syria does not violate international laws or UN resolutions. Second, sanctions have not been imposed on the Arab country. Moreover, Syria is an important player in the regional balance of power, especially considering that it has declared peace as its strategy. Why should the world powers deal with Syria otherwise?"
Run by the Ba'th Party, Syria is a strong advocate of Pan-Arabism. It is slowly opening up to trade with other countries, although Western influences are still limited. Syria resists everything American.
The country has been hailed with accusations over the past week, including allegations that it possesses weapons of mass destruction and is sheltering members of the Iraqi regime.
Syria is a likely target for the US for several reasons. "It refutes the current peace plan proposed for Israel and Palestine. It harbours Islamist and leftist Palestinian groups," wrote Saudi columnist Dawoud Shorian in Al-Hayat newspaper. "The regime in Syria is an extension of the Ba'thist rule in Iraq regardless of the rivalry that exists between the two regimes."
Bouthaina Shaaban, spokesperson for the Syrian foreign ministry, was quoted by Reuters as saying that the dilemma lies not in the accusations against Syria but rather in those instigating the threats. "The problem is that all of the accusations against Syria come from Israel," she said.
Shaul Mofaz, Israel's defence minister, said in an interview with the Israeli daily Ma'ariv that Israel views working with the US to remove the potential Syrian threat in the wake of the Iraq war as an opportunity.
Mofaz said that Israel wants Hizbullah's weapons' caches to be removed from southern Lebanon and believes the group should be dismantled. Israel also has asked that Syria stop harbouring militant Palestinian groups.
"We have a long list of issues we are thinking of demanding of the Syrians, and this would be best done through the Americans," Mofaz told Ma'ariv.
According to reports, the Israeli demands should be viewed as part of a deal designed by the US to entice Israel into the so-called roadmap that would involve Israel pulling out of the Palestinian West Bank, which it has occupied since 1967.
What matters for the United States is that Syria learned a lesson from the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime. Syria had been one of the main opponents of the war in Iraq and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad stated publicly that he hoped that coalition forces would be defeated.
Referring to the toppling of a statue of Saddam Hussein, an unnamed US official told the British Daily Telegraph that Syria should take note, "I hear there are lots of statues in Damascus, too."
However, US President Bush has been ambiguous about the price Syria might have to pay for defying the United States. Recent reports have suggested Bush has avoided discussions among his advisers about the possibility of attacking Syria.
Also significant are the differences between Britain and the US vis-à-vis Syria. "The UK does not see the need for military action against Syria, particularly when relations between the two countries are improving. Moreover, the British do not have this motto of 'war for war'. Rather, they believe in 'war for politics'," explained Shoeibi.
However, politics cannot prevent people from being worried. "We are afraid that America is planning to attack Syria. I think it's a possibility and we are afraid here. The Syrian people are a strong people, but they are also afraid," Syrian student Katrina Al-Sahoun told the BBC.
Ghassan Tweini, chairman of the Lebanese Al-Nahar newspaper, has stated that there is a great deal of rhetoric in the recent pronouncements about Syria. He has said that although the recent accusations have been aimed at making Syria fragile, the pressure is mounting too quickly to be genuine. "The US would like to buy Syria's silence, or rather, its submission, for Israel. Syria has to rapidly accept Israel's proposals. This is the name of the game," Tweini told the Weekly.
