If neither east nor west: what now for Turkey?
Rebuffed by the EU and sidelined by the US, Turkey appears increasingly isolated from its Western allies, but history and its own prejudices look set to prevent it from establishing closer ties with other countries in the region, writes Gareth Jenkins
Reports in the US media that the Pentagon is planning to establish four military bases in Iraq have increased speculation that Turkey will be sidelined by Washington as the US seeks to restructure the Middle East in the wake of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.
Last week US and UK military equipment and personnel began to leave the airbase at Incirlik in southeastern Turkey as Operation Northern Watch, which was established in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War to enforce the no-fly zone in northern Iraq, was quietly wound down. On Sunday Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul went on national television to announce that Turkey was ready to send troops to participate in a US- led peacekeeping force in Iraq and predicted that Turkish contractors would play a major role in the rebuilding of the country following the war. But he failed to say whether the US had made a specific request or why Washington would want to award construction contracts to Turkish firms. While the Iraqi Kurds in particular have always made it clear that they would regard Turkish troops as an occupying force.
Although the Bush administration has been careful in public to adopt a conciliatory tone towards Ankara, privately many US officials remain infuriated by Turkey's refusal at the beginning of March to allow US troops to transit Turkish territory to open a second front against the Saddam regime. Not only did the decision contradict several previous commitments by Turkey but US military planners believe that it increased coalition casualties and the duration of the war by forcing the US to concentrate exclusively on attacking Baghdad from the south.
Last week, at the same time as it was becoming clear that Turkey would play only a marginal role in Washington's plans for the Middle East, Ankara also received what could prove to be a fatal blow for its hopes of ever joining the EU. On Wednesday the Greek Cypriot Republic of Cyprus formally signed the treaty of accession to the EU, even though there has been a de facto partition of the island since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded to prevent the Greek Cypriots uniting with mainland Greece. Turkey still keeps 30,000 troops in northern Cyprus to protect the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which has only been recognised by Ankara. The international community continues to recognise the government of the Republic of Cyprus as the government of the entire island. As a result, once the Republic of Cyprus formally joins the EU next year in the name of the whole of the island, Turkey will, under international law, be illegally occupying EU territory. Under such circumstances Ankara will be faced with the choice between a humiliating climbdown -- i.e. withdrawing its troops from northern Cyprus and its recognition from the TRNC -- or simply abandoning its hopes of joining the EU.
In recent years, Turkish nationalists have often touted closer ties with the US as an alternative to the EU. During the Cold War Turkey guarded NATO's eastern flank and was vital to Washington's strategy of preventing Soviet expansion into the Middle East. As soon as the Cold War finished, Turkey was able to play a new role for the US, including both the containment of Saddam Hussein through Northern Watch and serving as a possible platform for US military deployment elsewhere in the region. Yet not only has Saddam been overthrown but Turkey's refusal last month to allow US troops to deploy through its territory means that Ankara is no longer seen in Washington as being a reliable ally.
But, although its relations with both the EU and the US are in disarray, Turkey has few alternatives. The current Turkish government has repeatedly stressed its commitment to strengthening ties with other Muslim countries in the region. But doubts remain about Ankara's real motives and its ability to understand how Turkey is perceived in the region particularly by Arab countries. Turks still fail to understand that Arabs do not share their own nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire. Last week, as Gul attended a meeting regional leaders held in Saudi Arabia to discuss post- Saddam Iraq, Turkish commentators repeatedly compared the current chaos in Iraq with what they described as the peace and harmony in which the Arabs had lived under the Ottoman Empire. When they refer to Turkey's role in the region, it is always as a leader, not an equal partner. Both Gul and his advisors are fond of touting the possibility of creating an "Ottoman Commonwealth"; a concept which is unlikely to be popular with Arab states. Indeed, for all the talk of regional cooperation and religious and cultural affinities, many Turks still regard Arabs with racist disdain, frequently citing their struggle for independence from the Ottomans as proof that they are untrustworthy. On Monday, the comment by retired General Nejat Eslen in the daily newspaper Radikal that Arabs possessed a "betrayal gene" generated widespread publicity but no protests or expressions of outrage.
