Constructive ambivalence
Though sceptical, the Palestinian Islamist movement, Hamas, is careful to avoid civil war with the new PA government, reports Khaled Amayreh from Jerusalem
American and Israeli insistence that Mahmoud Abbas, aka Abu Mazen, and his favoured security chief, Mohamed Dahlan, demonstrate their credibility by cracking down on "terror", namely the activities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, has fueled much scepticism among the Palestinian resistance movement and the population at large.
Abu Mazen himself seems to be receptive to the idea of clamping down on all resistance groups. It is reported that the Palestinian premier designate will propose an end to armed struggle against Israel, apparently in the hope that this will force the Israelis to the negotiating table.
Hamas fears that Abu Mazen might capitulate to Israeli and American demands in order to obtain a "certificate of good conduct", as one Hamas spokesman put it.
Hamas is especially worried about the possibility of a new and repressive campaign against its cadres and social, educational and cultural infrastructure. This would be reminiscent of the violent Palestinian Authority (PA) crackdown on the movement in 1996, when hundreds of Hamas leaders were imprisoned and tortured.
Indeed, such a crackdown might even be the catalyst for civil war among Palestinians, a prospect Hamas say they wish to avoid.
This week, several Israeli government officials stated publicly that Abu Mazen's government could establish its credibility only through the "smashing of Hamas' and Islamic Jihad's infrastructure". But Hamas is unlikely to fall into the civil war trap. The movement, according to Hamas spokesman, Abdul-Aziz Al-Rantisi, will not choose the path of confrontation with the new Palestinian government.
"Our goal is to fight the sinister Zionist colonialist occupation of our homeland. In the past we avoided confrontation with the PA regime, despite their repressive and provocative measures against us. We will do the same now."
However, Rantisi tacitly warned that both sides, not just Hamas, would have to show restraint and refrain from provocation.
"I know for sure that the main Zionist goal at this juncture is to spark off a civil war among Palestinians by bullying the new PA government into repressing the resistance movements. That is a red line that shouldn't be crossed under any circumstances."
Nonetheless, Rantisi, who is widely believed to represent the more radical camp within Hamas, says that the Islamic movement will not give up resistance, including armed resistance, as long as Israel continues to "occupy and rape our country".
However, Ismail Abu Shanab, a moderate voice within the movement, says that Hamas is not at all eager to confront the PA.
"Our approach to this government depends on its platform. Israel is ravaging Palestinian towns, villages and refugee camps. If the new government succeeds in ending the evil occupation of our land, we will support it." However, Abu Shanab expressed pessimism that Abu Mazen will be able to do that.
"I am convinced that [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon will give him nothing. Israel is interested first and foremost in subjugating our people and crushing our resistance. Israel wants peace with, not without, the occupation of our land, and that will never happen."
Abu Shanab, who seems to reflect a growing pragmatic orientation within Hamas, argues that the movement's resistance in the final analysis is an "effect" of, and not a "cause" of the Israeli occupation. "There will be no need for our resistance if the occupation disappears," he said.
This relatively moderate tone indicates that Hamas is likely to behave pragmatically in the coming weeks and months. To this end, Hamas will seek to form a broad coalition with other Palestinian political movements, including Fatah, the supposed backbone of the PA.
Earlier this week, Fatah's military wing, the Al- Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, said in a statement that it would actively oppose any efforts by the Abu Mazen government to disarm the movement. "We will not give up our arms in order that we be slaughtered like sheep by the Israeli occupation army."
Similar statements were made by Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which indicated that virtually all Palestinian factions were unwilling to give Abu Mazen's government the benefit of the doubt.
In addition, nationalist and Islamic forces have been pressing the new Palestinian government, "not to cave in to pressure from Israel and its obsequious American ally, and remain responsible solely to our people".
Furthermore, Hamas believes that continued Israeli repression, including the nearly daily acts of killing (including extra-judicial executions) of Palestinian civilians and activists by the Israeli army -- along with other forms of oppression, such as house demolitions and land confiscations -- will eventually force the PA to refrain from acting at Israel's behest.
In addition, Hamas thinks, as do most Palestinians, that Israel is not really interested in seeing the Abu Mazen government succeed, if success is defined in terms of restarting the peace process and bringing about the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from erstwhile PA-run territories.
Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz was quoted this week as saying that Israel would not be withdrawing its tanks from Palestinian towns in the foreseeable future.
If true, the new Palestinian government would have to function and operate in the shadow of the Israeli army, which would almost certainly guarantee its speedy collapse. Palestinians, including the pro-Arafat camp, are unlikely to tolerate a Quisling government in their midst.
There is another element which also might work in Hamas' favour. Virtually all Palestinians have been hit hard by Israel's repression since the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising more than two and a half years ago. In fact, it is hard to find a single Palestinian family that has not lost a son, a relative, or a friend during their struggle. Thousands of Palestinians have also lost their homes, property and sources of livelihood as a result of Israel's policies. This will make it very hard for the Palestinian public to digest, much less support, any perceived collusion between the new government and Israel. As such, Abu Mazen's government will face a dilemma, having to choose between appeasing American and Israeli demands to crack down hard on "terror" on the one hand and alienating the Palestinian public on the other.
