This time round
Yasmine El-Rashidi looks at how the tourism sector is handling the latest blow to its fortunes
If the tourism sector had an enemy it would probably be time. "Time", the cliché says, heals all. Even in the case of tourism, the saying is somewhat true.
It began in the mid-1990s, when militant Islamism was marking its presence with a series of terrorist attacks on tourists. As with the history of anything, there were landmarks: the 1997 Luxor tourist attack in which 58 tourists were killed, the second Palestinian Intifada, the 11 September attacks, and now, of course, the war on Iraq.
On 15 April 2002, the cover of Newsweek announced "War In The Mideast". One year later, little has changed.
With each big political bang has come a blow to Egypt's economy as a whole. The hardest hit over the years, being the nation's top hard-currency earner, tourism.
Back before the 1997 atrocity tainted Egypt's reputation, the airports were bustling with tourists, ancient sites were packed, and the sector as a whole was thriving. Everyone got a share.
"Work was excellent here before," says Mohsen Abul-Fattah Mohamed, a baggage-handler at Cairo International Airport. "There were lots more tourists, and they were generous. You see this area," he continues, turning his head and pointing to a vast check-in area. "You couldn't stand here before because there were so many groups of tourists. There are still groups but they're much smaller." The flow has dried up, as has his income.
"We used to read in the papers [about] how well tourism in Egypt is doing and how many billions [of dollars] the minister brought in," Mohamed says. "But people like me don't feel it. Maybe it's in other places? They say the situation is better in Sharm El-Sheikh. But what's one to do; this is my home. Should I leave and start again?"
Time is the culprit; he is comfortable with his surroundings, and has accustomed himself to the changed situation. Much like the sector.
"What tourism industry?" laughs tour guide Ihab Wagdi of Isis Travel. "There's no business."
His sentiments are echoed by tour guides who once had to deal with the pressure of handling a stream of groups of over 20 visitors.
"My work year had no breaks," says Ikram Ali, a tour guide who works with various travel agencies. "I always had agencies calling me to see if I could take groups. At one time there was more work than some of us could handle."
He shakes his head and laughs.
"My next big group is in October," he says. "Other than that I have some couples coming here and there. Nothing really."
It is from big groups that the tour guides make most of their money; the groups generally pool together what becomes a sizeable "tip". It used to reach a few hundred pounds a day, several thousand a week. Now, for long stretches, it stands at nil.
The confusion stems from the facts and figures that circulate in the press. At the International Tourism Exchange (ITB) in Berlin last month, Egyptian Tourism Minister Mamdouh El-Beltagui announced 2003 as being a record year. The minister cited what came to be known as the "1997 Luxor massacre", saying that Egypt had been quick to relieve security concerns by taking quick action; both on a security level, and on marketing.
At the Berlin event -- the world's largest tourism trade fair -- El-Beltagui told the press that the then-potential war on Iraq could have grave financial consequences for the sector.
Speaking just days before the US strike on Baghdad took place, El-Beltagui was quoted telling the press: "We may have a loss of $2 billion if this war starts and continues for a relatively long period. But I think if the war is quick and sharp, and there is no extension to other regions or countries, 2003 may still be a record year. People delay trips but they don't cancel." Other sources cite the potential loss at $8 billion.
On 21 April in the Al-Hayat newspaper, Henry Tawfiq Azzam wrote, "The war's results have been bad for the Egyptian economy. In fact, tourism revenues decreased and Suez Canal income has declined."
Even though the war was short, dread of what is to come remains.
"We still have no idea what Bush plans to do next," Ali says. "He's left a country in a state of anarchy, there's no telling what's to come. The problem is that people can't separate Egypt from Iraq at this point. The Middle East and the Arab world are both seen as a single entity. The US media is broadcasting what they want on their local news channels, and naturally the people are buying into it. The Middle East is a region of dictators and oppression. They [Americans] have been mobilised to think in a certain way."
While El-Beltagui has poured money into public relations campaigns -- aired on networks such as BBC and CNN, the growth that once blessed the tourism sector remains elusive. Egypt earned $3.3 billion in revenues from the sector last year, claiming a record 5.2 million tourists. But a record is a relative thing.
As the sun shines in Egypt this April, the sector is in a depression. Prior to the 1997 attack, ancient sites, the Cairo Museum, and Pharaonic Cairo, were packed. Today they are relatively empty.
"Tourism is very different to what it was," says Gwen Grant, a tour guide and ten-year Egypt resident. "When I first came the industry was amazing. There were special offers on after the Gulf War, but we made so much money. The 200 feluccas in Luxor were always on the Nile. Today, there are maybe 50 operating."
Perceptions of Egypt, Grant says, are different to what they were before.
"It's Cairo, Luxor and Abu Simbel that have been hardest hit," she says. "The hesitation over a holiday in Egypt lies there. The coastal resorts aren't being affected in the same way," she continues. "Hurghada and Sharm El-Sheikh are packed. Because tourists coming to those places aren't thinking 'Egypt'. They don't associate the two together so strongly. When they go to Sharm, they're just thinking 'beach holiday'. The two are highly separated."
That, she adds, is the reason why the sector is said to be bringing in record profits. Given the devaluation of the pound, the beach resorts are even more appealing than in the past, such as the cleverly created Sharm El-Sheikh, which draws in a constant and endless rush of visitors; they fly into Sharm International Airport, and straight out the same way.
What will become of the remaining trickle of tourists to Cairo, however, is another story that will only unfold over time. After the 1991 Gulf War, the US granted Egypt a $7 billion waiver on its debts for having sent 36,000 troops to help allied forces. This time, however, the show of support has been less forthcoming, and the economy can expect no such form of help.
Hotel reservations continue to be cancelled with top-notch agencies such as Travco and Isis reportedly seeing 50 per cent cancellation rates on Cairo tours. The chances of Egypt pulling in the average of $4 billion in annual revenues seems slim, but then again, only time will tell.
