Argentinean phoenix
Argentina's ex-president, Carlos Menem, was the highest scorer in the first round of presidential elections. But he faces an uphill battle in the second round, Hisham El-Naggar writes from Buenos Aires
Could Carlos Menem, president of Argentina for most of the previous decade and regarded as the architect of the country's descent into corruption, recession and poverty, become president for another term?
The answer is yes, and no. It is no doubt significant that Menem came first in the premier round of last week's presidential elections. But he scored a disappointing -- for his supporters -- 24 per cent, while the front-runner, Nestor Kirchner was not far behind with a 22 per cent.
Considering the fact that all other candidates are running on an anti-Menemist platform, Menem's odds for doing well in the second round -- planned for 18 May -- are not all that high.
The triumphant return to power of a disgraced head of state is something of a tradition in Latin America. The caudillo phenomenon -- attachment to a strongman with a populist style who poses as a father figure -- suggests that rulers who manage to hold on to power for a certain period never lose all of their supporters. Juan Domingo Peron, for instance, who was ousted out by a coup in 1955, staged a spectacular comeback in free elections 18 years later.
Menem is hoping to do the same after a more modest interval of four years. Since he was forced to renounce the idea of running for an unconstitutional third term in 1999, the country has experienced a major slump, massive currency devaluation and an alarming growth in poverty.
Horrors such as these, it seems, would enhance the ex-president's standing, whose own two presidential terms gave some semblance of prosperity -- but only a semblance. By overpricing the currency and drawing on seemingly endless funds from creditors blinded by inflated returns, Argentines who kept their jobs -- one in six -- despite massive rounds of privatisation were lulled into thinking that their earnings were strong by international standards.
Cheap imports and ritzy foreign vacations thrilled the Argentine middle class. And yet it was precisely this, the overpriced currency, that ruined the economy. Local producers found it impossible to compete with considerably cheaper imports, resulting in factory closures all over the country. Poverty, once again, began to rear its ugly head, with flashbacks to the sight of children scavenging for food in the early 1990s.
By the time Menem left power, many of those who had kept their jobs wondered if they would lose them soon.
The actual collapse, it can be said, occurred under his successors. The middle class became so apprehensive about the future that domestic consumption plummeted. International creditors soon lost confidence and Eduardo Duhalde -- interim president when the previous president stepped down after just a week -- had no choice but to devalue the currency.
Most people are acutely aware that the present crisis has its roots in the reckless Menem era. Many recall his flamboyant lifestyle -- fast cars, slick photographs on the golf course, celebrity friends, which may have amused the rich and distracted the poor in the past, but seems acutely irresponsible in the present economic climate.
There is even a suggestion that he may be out of touch with reality. His own "reliable opinion polls" forecast a first-round score of over 40 per cent, rendering a second round redundant and securing his term in the Casa Rosada. This never materialised.
And his reaction to last week's "victory" failed to do anything positive for his image. He put off facing the TV cameras, apparently in the hope that his lead over Kirchner would widen. And to make matters even worse, he looked distinctly crestfallen while telling supporters to brace themselves for a second round.
But it's not over till it is over. Kirchner, after all, is something of a newcomer, and is occasionally ridiculed for his somewhat unpronounceable name and striking resemblance to a well-known comedian. He is also, like Menem, a Peronist -- a fact which may be resented by anti-Menemists who are also anti-Peronists, and who may be tempted to spoil their votes in the second round.
Confused? So are most Argentines. But if the polls are to be believed -- and apart from Menem's "secret" poll, all came close to predicting the result of the first round -- the citizens of Argentina are not confused enough to forget the excesses of the notorious Menemist decade. Kirchner seems to promise the one thing that Argentines really value, namely economic growth. Luck, and a smattering of prudent economic management, have resulted in a modest degree of economic recovery.
The currency has rallied somewhat and unemployment appears to be falling. Roberto Lavagna, the incumbent minister of economics, is clearly doing something right. And Kirchner has made it clear that Lavagna would retain this brief.
José Manuel de Rosas, a 19th-century Argentine dictator, liked to say that whoever ruled Argentina could count on the passivity of the Argentine people. He may have had a chance to reflect on his words in Southampton, the place to which he was exiled after being driven from power. In a few weeks Menem will either be moving to the Casa Rosada or, according to most polls, facing the same fate.
