Kashmir's summer thaw?
At last there are signs of rapprochement in Indo-Pakistani relations, especially with respect to Kashmir. Sudhanshu Ranjan reports
When India's Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, extended a hand of friendship to Pakistan in Srinagar on 18 April, it flummoxed both the Ministry of External Affairs and his own Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).
The offer was well-timed and placed. As the first prime minister to address a public meeting in the Kashmir Valley in 15 years, Vajpayee offered friendship to Pakistan and dialogue with the people of Jammu and Kashmir to settle internal and external issues. "We once again extend the hand of friendship but it should be reciprocated by both sides," he said, recalling the peace initiatives taken by his government in the past.
The 20,000 strong crowd, mainly youths, stood mesmerised as Vajpayee said that, "the play of death and destruction had to be stopped to let Kashmir be a garden where birds would sing again."
Whether this was an offer made under American political pressure, or a preemptive strike to ward off any future US demands, Vajpayee has a shrewd understanding of the new America that has emerged since the war on Iraq. America is now a country dismissive of multilateralism and not shy about using military means in pursuit of a US-centric world order. This is especially significant given its public proclamation about turning its attention to Kashmir after Iraq.
For all his political pragmatism, Vajpayee also wants to be remembered as a man who achieved some progress on Kashmir. Indeed, Vajpayee's offer has created a sliver of hope in the dangerous 18-month-long impasse between India and Pakistan.
Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali broke the ice by telling Vajpayee in Urdu that the two countries need to find a "way to move on". Indeed, the two leaders were quite informal with one another. After inviting Vajpayee to visit Pakistan, Jamali pushed aside his prepared text and said that, as the younger of the two, he was prepared to come to Delhi if Vajpayee could not make it to Islamabad.
In Pakistan, the call generated widespread hope for a breakthrough and a visible lifting of spirits. Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Riaz Khokhar who was present when Jamali made the call to Vajpayee, cautiously described it as, "a good beginning".
India maintains that Pakistan needs to put an end to cross-border terrorism to set a conducive atmosphere for bilateral talks. But on 2 May there was reason for optimism when Vajpayee revealed in parliament the government's decision to appoint a new high commissioner in Islamabad and restore civil aviation links on a reciprocal basis. Diplomatic, rail, and air links were severed following the 13 December 2001 attacks on Parliament House in New Delhi. The ensuing 18 months saw the largest build-up of conventional forces at the Indo-Pak border since 1971, pushing India to the brink of war on two occasions.
Now each side is keen to show that its policy has paid off. On 6 May, Pakistan announced that it would restore air, train and bus links with India and sought, "serious and substantive" dialogue on all issues, including Kashmir. Prime Minister Jamali, addressing a news conference in Islamabad, favoured resumption of dialogue between the two parties. Calling for confidence building measures (CBMs) on nuclear issues, he said possession of nuclear weapons by the two countries has put a responsibility on them to, "seek nuclear and strategic stability" in the region.
"I believe all issues have to be addressed sincerely and constructively through sustained dialogue," Jamali said. He suggested that talks take place at the summit level. Jamali also assured Kashmiris that, "at all stages their interest would be of supreme importance."
Pakistan realises that there is a need to act with speed before India's hawks step in and vitiate the atmosphere between the two states again. It is likely to announce measures on cross-border terrorism that may satisfy India soon. Islamabad has moved away from its stated position that, "it has done everything possible on the matter and can do no more." Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri hinted at this when he said, "We will try to do something that will lower the temperature. How far we succeed depends partly on India. Suicide bombers do not take orders from the Pakistani government or the army. But if we start talking, we may be able to convince them to [respect] a cease-fire."
Vajpayee told his parliament on 8 May that, "Jamali told me that his country is troubled by terrorism, a crime which they are battling there. He said, 'let us battle terrorism together.' After this we thought of interaction....It does not behoove a great country like India not to take any initiatives....Everyone knows our commitment to peace. Pakistan's terrorism has got no support."
The same day, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told reporters, after a 90- minute meeting with Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad, that the Pakistani leader had assured him there was no infiltration and if there was some terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir it would be "dismantled tomorrow".
Pakistan has come under renewed pressure to end cross-border terrorism, with new legislation taking form in the US Congress. The legislation calls for sanctions on Pakistan if it does not mend its ways.
On 10 May, Armitage, after holding talks with the Indian leadership in New Delhi, lauded the, "far-reaching act of statesmanship by Prime Minister Vajpayee" towards Pakistan. He also expressed cautious optimism that it would begin a process that would see the resolution of all outstanding issues between the two sides. "We would like to see India and Pakistan, two great countries, living side by side in peace and harmony. It's a long trip to when we get there," he said.
However, Armitage's statements have disappointed political observers in India, who feel that he has offered nothing new. They claim that has merely reiterated what he said around a year ago in New Delhi. They also maintain that the US's sole interest is to avoid conflict between South Asia's two nuclear rivals -- not a lasting resolution to the Kashmir imbroglio. However, Vajpayee's initiative and Pakistan's response have warmed the atmosphere and summit-level talks are expected soon. Yet, there still seems to be little in the way of compromise from either side. India continues to stick to its position that Kashmir is territorially not up for negotiation, with Pakistan stating that Kashmir runs in the blood of every Pakistani citizen.
