Bush's dubious carrot
US President George Bush offers a "sweetener", if Arab countries conform to his vision for the region: A US-Middle East free trade area within a decade. Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington
It is US presidential tradition that speeches delivered at university graduation ceremonies are usually reserved for making major announcements on foreign policy issues. On Friday, triumphant US President George Bush told graduates of South California University that he was proposing the establishment of a US-Middle East free trade area within a decade, "to bring the Middle East into an expanding circle of opportunity, to provide hope for the people who live in that region".
The announcement, however, failed to create a significant stir in international markets or in the political circles of the US and Middle East region. A senior US official who spoke to reporters after Bush's speech conceded that the proposal was meant as a long-term plan, and that it would be based on bilateral negotiations between the United States and each Arab country -- considering the different levels they have achieved so far in economic liberalisation. Jordan is the only Arab country that has signed a free trade agreement with the United States, while Morocco is second in line. Negotiations to open US markets to Arab exports have taken place with Egypt and Bahrain, but US officials say lengthy discussions still remain before an agreement can be signed with Cairo.
Other Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have not joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO), a precondition for signing a free trade agreement with the US, the senior US official said. Asked whether some Arab countries would also be required to drop their boycott of Israel as a precondition to initiate negotiations for a free- trade agreement, the official said that dropping boycott measures was a requirement set by the WTO, "so, yes, we expect such measures to be dropped". Arab countries such as Syria, Libya and Sudan are on the US State Department's list of countries accused of sponsoring terrorism, and therefore no free trade negotiations could be held with their governments. But the senior official said that he hoped by 2013 "circumstances would have changed in a way that would allow us to have a regional agreement between the Middle East and the United States".
More important than the ambitious announcement on free trade, however, was the logic that underlies Bush's vision for the region -- after US troops ousted former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and occupied Iraq. Bush said that after the 11 September attacks in New York and Washington, "what happens in the Middle East greatly matters to America. The bitterness of that region can bring violence and suffering to our own cities. The advance of freedom and peace in the Middle East would drain the bitterness and increase our own security." The US president vowed "to use our influence and idealism to replace old hatreds with new hopes across the Middle East. A time of historic opportunity has arrived. A dictator in Iraq has been removed from power."
But the advance towards freedom, Bush said, first requires "the defeat of terror". And in a implicit warning to other countries neighbouring Iraq, namely Syria and Iran, Bush said that, "the hateful ideology of terrorism is shaped and nurtured and protected by oppressive regimes. Free nations, in contrast, encourage creativity and tolerance and enterprise. And in those free nations, the appeal of extremism withers away."
Citing a now famous report on human development in the Arab world issued last year by a group of Arab researchers and sponsored by the United Nations, Bush identified the ills of the Arab world as the lack of freedom, respect for human rights, poor education and oppression of women. "They [the Arab researchers] also identified the social oppression of women as a major barrier to progress. And they are correct. No society can succeed and prosper while denying basic rights and opportunities to the women of their country."
A Washington-based Arab diplomat said he now wondered whether a top priority on Bush's agenda would be pressing Arab Gulf countries to allow women to vote, or in the case of Saudi Arabia, to start giving them driving licences. Qatar, the tiny Gulf country, now the closest US ally and the base of its command in the region, recently approved a new constitution that allowed women to vote. In his speech, Bush praised Bahrain, Morocco, Jordan and Qatar for carrying out democratic reforms. And with a view not to alienate a close and historic ally, he also noted a recent proposal by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah which called for internal reform and political participation as a similar step in the direction of encouraging political reform. As for Iran, Bush lashed out at the "harsh repression" by the current regime in Tehran and praised Iranians who "are courageously speaking out for democracy and the rule of law and human rights. And the United States strongly supports their aspirations for freedom."
US officials have repeatedly expressed hope that the ousting of the Iraqi regime and the establishment of a Western-style democracy there would provide a guiding model for the rest of the region. Without threatening military intervention in other countries, US officials believe that developments in Iraq will deter other Arab countries from seeking to possess weapons of mass destruction. It will also force their governments to start the process of political reform in order to avoid a fate similar to Saddam Hussein.
Partly acknowledging that it is not only poverty that leads to extremism in the region, Bush reiterated his commitment to reaching a peaceful settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict, based on a two-state solution: Palestine and Israel. "If the Palestinian people take concrete steps to crack down on terror, continue on a path of peace, reform and democracy, they and all the world will see the flag of Palestine raised over a free and independent nation." Stating that parties in the region have duties to carry out in order to reach a peaceful settlement, Bush said Israel "must take tangible steps now to ease the suffering of Palestinians and to show respect for their dignity. And as progress is made towards peace, Israel must stop settlement activities in the occupied territories." Arab nations, meanwhile, "must fight terror in all forms and state the obvious once and for all: Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state at peace with its neighbours."
Bush also sought to provide backing for his embattled Secretary of State Colin Powell who started a tour of the region the same day he gave his speech. An announcement by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that he would delay any major decisions on the implementation of the "Roadmap", presented early this month to both Israel and the Palestinians by the United States, until he met Bush on 20 May, was seen as an embarrassment for Powell. Bush said, in his tour Powell "carries with him my personal commitment: America will work without tiring to achieve two sates, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in security and prosperity and in peace".
However, the modest results achieved by Powell after his visit to the West Bank and Israel, failing to convince Sharon to even announce his acceptance of the plan, could only cast doubt on the degree of support Bush gave his top diplomat.
